UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'An emergency cut without an emergency' Sep 19, 2024

Show notes

The US rate-cutting cycle began with a 50bp cut—the sort of move normally reserved for an economic emergency. The US has near full employment, steady consumption, and rising real wages. This is no economic emergency. It is not plausible to claim Federal Reserve Chair Powell knows something economists do not (especially after yesterday’s press conference). The fact that a Fed governor dissented for the first time in 19 years helped reduce the impression of panic.

CIO First Take: September FOMC meeting Sep 18, 2024

Show notes

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on the outcome of the September FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO’s positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The damage of data dependency' Sep 18, 2024

Show notes

Finally, several months later than it should, the Federal Reserve will cut rates today. Stressing data dependency when data are not dependable has led to this unnecessary delay. The Fed has been lucky the damage has been limited—middle-income borrowers locked in mortgages at absurdly low rates, and real rates for borrowers (deflated by income growth) have not risen too much.

Top of the Morning: Should you harvest capital gains at today’s rate? Sep 18, 2024

Show notes

Our conversation focuses on considerations around tax management, namely if the capital gains tax rates go higher, does it make sense to harvest capital gains at the lower tax rate today. We also review additional tax changes being proposed that investors should be mindful of. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, and Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Top of the Morning: Election 2024 - Critical takeaways for global entrepreneurs Sep 17, 2024

Show notes

As Election Day in the US quickly approaches, Paul drops by the studio to outline the economic agendas of both candidates, and reviews the implications of certain outcomes to global entrepreneurs and business owners. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Hedonism day' Sep 17, 2024

Show notes

It is hedonism day in the US, with the release of August retail sales data. Two limits to the data. This is a value measure, and US goods prices have been falling for four months now. This underrepresents consumption at a time when people are still favoring fun over goods. Instagram reels of holidays and congealing restaurant meals cost money (and of that spending, only the congealing restaurant meals are captured in retail sales).

Washington Weekly Podcast: Post-debate polling, China legislation, Government funding Sep 16, 2024

Show notes

We begin by updating on the second assassination attempt of former President Trump, and where that investigation stands. We also discuss where negotiations stand as it relates a government funding bill, bipartisan legislative initiatives aimed at China, along with a look at the polls a week out from the recent Presidential debate. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - The most important question Sep 16, 2024

Show notes

The big event this week is the anticipated commencement of Fed rate cuts. Joining us to discuss outcome expectations, potential market response, and why focusing on the size of the cuts is not the most important issue, is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rate cuts are coming' Sep 16, 2024

Show notes

Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting this week. A rate cut is clearly expected (and long overdue), as inflation pressures continue to fade in the US. However, a rate cut of more than 25bps seems unlikely—while the Fed is late in cutting rates, a larger move might be taken as a sign of panic. Higher frequency cuts rather than larger cuts seem most likely.

Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview Sep 13, 2024

Show notes

As we close out another trading week, Matt drops by the podcast to reflect on recent equity market return drivers, along with recaps this week’s inflation data. We also outline current views on equity positioning, and preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

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