UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The US and China – different consumers' Sep 09, 2024

Show notes

The US has more people employed, working longer hours, for more pay. Last Friday’s employment report essentially summarized a soft economic landing. There was evidence of slower hiring (without firing) in the employment details, also consistent with a soft landing. While the Federal Reserve is late in cutting rates, the delay has not yet done much economic damage.

Top of the Morning: August Jobs Report, and the week ahead Sep 06, 2024

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The latest employment report is in - Brian stops by to provide thoughts around the health of the US labor market, and what this latest data means for the potential timing and extent of Fed rate cuts in the weeks ahead. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The employment roulette wheel' Sep 06, 2024

Show notes

Just one month ago, markets were panicked by the release of an unreliable labor market signal, distorted by seasonal peculiarities. Now, once again, it is time for the US employment report. The unreliability adds unpredictability to the numbers, but the expectation is for a lower unemployment rate as temporarily unemployed auto-sector workers return to work.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Constraining capital' Sep 05, 2024

Show notes

The Washington Post reports that US President Biden will prevent Japan’s Nippon Steel from acquiring US Steel, citing national security grounds. There will probably be a legal challenge to this, as national security might be hard to justify. Economic nationalism, however, is not just about trade in goods—it also often covers capital flows. Interestingly, economic nationalism goes both ways on capital flows: “how dare foreigners buy our assets?” for inflows; and “why are you not investing at home?” for outflows.

Washington Weekly Podcast: Legislative agenda, Decision 2024 update Sep 04, 2024

Show notes

As Congress returns from summer recess, and the race for the White House heats up, Shane drops by to outline legislative priorities over the next few weeks, along with updates as to where polling for the White House and key Congressional races currently stands. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Don’t blame the ISM' Sep 04, 2024

Show notes

Equity markets had one of their funny turns yesterday. Some commentators, searching for scapegoats, want to blame the US ISM manufacturing sentiment poll. This seems unfair, as the ISM sentiment poll does not know what it is doing. Despite sentiment signaling five months of contraction, US manufacturing output is above where it was at the start of the year.

Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets - Patiently awaiting the US elections Sep 03, 2024

Show notes

As Election Day in the US quickly approaches, Alejo stops by the studio to outline the implications of different outcome scenarios to emerging market assets. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More economic nationalism' Sep 03, 2024

Show notes

Following Canada’s decision to dramatically tax Canadian consumers of electric vehicles made in China, China has launched anti-dumping investigations into Canadian exports. “Dumping” is the deliberate sale of exports at below market price. It is not a common occurrence, but it is a convenient way of pursuing economic nationalism (per US and EU accusations of dumping against China).

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The ongoing rise of prejudice politics' Sep 02, 2024

Show notes

In Germany, the far-right AfD won the largest share of the vote in Thuringia’s state elections. That and high support levels for the AfD and the far-left BSW in eastern Germany remind investors that prejudice politics is widespread and persistent. Industrial revolutions create insecurity about jobs, income, and social status. The causes are complex, but people crave simplicity. Blaming a scapegoat (scapegoat economics) offers simplicity, and encourages prejudice politics.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disinflation data' Aug 30, 2024

Show notes

Disinflation data continues today. The US July personal consumer expenditure deflator is expected to show fairly stable inflation rates. It is worth remembering that if inflation falls because of owners’ equivalent rent, this does not change the spending power of any US household (as OER is a fiction).

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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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