UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Political theater, economic muttering' Aug 20, 2024

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US politicians are politicking. At the margin, Vice President Harris’s endorsement of the proposed increase in US corporate tax rates might seem to be market relevant. However, listed companies are not always that sensitive to headline corporate tax rates. Otherwise, this is still mainly political theater (obviously, were Taylor Swift to do an impromptu concert in Chicago, the theater would become serious).

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Mo’ Momentum Markets Aug 19, 2024

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Jason explains why financial markets have become more prone to rollercoaster swings that result in positive momentum and sharp reversals. We also preview this week’s Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, and what markets will be looking for in Fed Chair Powell’s speech, along with review CIO’s current guidance when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More politics. More policy.' Aug 19, 2024

Show notes

The data calendar today is so quiet even ECB President Lagarde does not appear to be speaking. The lack of economic data to guide investors might be troubling—but recent market swings were not based on rational economic analysis.

Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview Aug 16, 2024

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We close out another trading week by recapping some notable economic data releases that could influence the Fed’s decision on rate cuts for the September FOMC meeting, and through year-end. We also preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The politicization of inflation' Aug 16, 2024

Show notes

The US middle-income consumer is doing just fine, with yesterday’s retail sales data showing little fear of unemployment and a willingness to indulge in the national pastime of spending money. Today’s Michigan consumer sentiment data will tell us about the extraordinary degree of US political partisanship, not about what consumers are feeling.

Macro Monthly Podcast with UBS Asset Management Aug 15, 2024

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Tune in monthly to hear from UBS Asset Management’s multi-asset team for thoughts on the global macro environment, and markets.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'From inflation to labor markets' Aug 15, 2024

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US July consumer price inflation data continued recent trends. Most sectors of the US economy have deflation somewhere (furniture prices seem to be plunging in California. Clothing prices are falling in New York). Fictional prices for housing are propping up the inflation data—which means middle income homeowners have more spending power than consumer price numbers imply.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disinflation and what it means' Aug 14, 2024

Show notes

The publication of US consumer price inflation forces economists to become used car salespeople and real estate fantasists. Part of the disinflationary trends come from used cars (which most US households will not buy this year) and the fictional owners’ equivalent rent (which no one pays). Disinflation in these categories does not improve the spending power of most consumers.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Real real rates' Aug 13, 2024

Show notes

US July producer price data are due. Producer prices better represent corporate pricing power than consumer prices. (Consumer prices are a combination of the pricing power of retailers, and the power of imagination in devising owners’ equivalent rent.) This means the real fed funds rate is around 3% for companies—an unnecessarily restrictive rate.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot: The calm - that refreshes? Aug 12, 2024

Show notes

Jason explains last week’s market evolution, and what this week might deliver for the markets as we anticipate key economic readings on consumer spending trends and the inflationary environment. Jason also outlines CIO’s medium-term market outlook, and views when it comes to portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

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