UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Data, and why data dependency is bad' Sep 26, 2024

Show notes

The US offers the “final” revisions to second-quarter GDP alongside annual data revisions. Declining real-time date reliability means that revisions matter to economists. US growth data is generally underestimated quite a bit, in the early releases. This problem may increase in the future—for instance, budget cuts mean that labor market data is likely to become less reliable.

Talking Markets with Jeffrey Gundlach, Founder, DoubleLine Capital Sep 25, 2024

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A fireside chat which covers the current market and macro environment, including thoughts around the US economy, the Fed, the upcoming US election, and positioning across fixed income and real estate. Featured is Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Policy versus emotion' Sep 25, 2024

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Policy interests markets, but few voters. Emotion tends to be more important in elections. The global rise of economic nationalism is rooted in emotion, but is also a policy with real world consequences. Yesterday, former US President Trump pledged to use corporate tax cuts and consumer tax increases (via tariffs) to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. Who would do those jobs with near full employment was not specified. Investors have hitherto regarded Trump’s tariff proposals as being emotional rather than policy, given their extreme nature.

Top of the Morning: US election implications for sustainability Sep 24, 2024

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It’s Climate Week in New York! Amantia drops by the studio to outline the focus items of Climate Week, this as part of the annual United Nations General Assembly. We also discuss the implications of US election outcomes to climate policy, what’s in focus as it relates to ESG at the ‘State Level’, and the historical performance of sustainable investments during both Republican and Democrat administrations. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Drama, or just theater?' Sep 24, 2024

Show notes

China’s central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements, eased home ownership regulation, and proposed support for equity markets. The measures were announced with considerable dramatic effect, presumably aiming to ensure China’s officially reported GDP data meets the official GDP target.

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Get Ready (UBS House View) Sep 23, 2024

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We kick off the trading week by reviewing the latest UBS House View and positioning recommendations. Jason also weighs whether the Fed’s aggressive commencement of easing signifies a sustained soft landing on the horizon, along with the newly in focus debate over the terminal Fed funds rate. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Scrambling, not panicking' Sep 23, 2024

Show notes

There are a few Federal Reserve speakers scheduled, freed from the self-imposed silence that precedes a policy decision. Fed President Bostic, talking specifically on the economic outlook, is likely to attract attention. Markets want to hear that the Fed is scrambling to catch up with falling inflation, not that there is anything wrong with the economy. Fed President Kashkari is speaking on childcare—not immediately market moving, but important. Flexible working has allowed women (who are disproportionately responsible for childcare) to move to better paid jobs.

CIO Fixed Income Roundtable Series: Post-FOMC edition Sep 20, 2024

Show notes

In the wake of the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, the CIO fixed income team spends time reflecting on the policy shift, what to look out for in the months ahead, and what an easing policy environment means for fixed income assets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden and Frank Sileo, from the UBS Chief Investment Office.

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Economists versus politicians' Sep 20, 2024

Show notes

US politics keeps resurrecting ideas from the 1970s—most recently questioning central bank independence. Some economists argue that Federal Reserve Chair Powell is the worst central bank head since Fed Chair Burns (who served US President Nixon). Burns was independent in theory, but not in practice. Former US President Trump suggested this week’s rate cut was political in nature, and that the Fed should be more under his control. US President Biden defended Fed independence yesterday.

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 13) Sep 19, 2024

Show notes

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reacts to yesterday’s decision by the FOMC to cut interest-rates for the first time in four years, and what this policy move might mean for the economy and markets. We also touch on the implications to the yield-curve, along with global environment for debt, inflation, and market preferences.

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