Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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Tom McClellan: These Decades-Long Correlations All Predict A Major Market Sell-Off Later This Year May 26, 2024

Show notes

Stocks markets have had a massive run since November of last year and all the major indices -- the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDAQ - have hit all-time highs this week. US GDP growth for the current quarter is currently predicted to be 3.6%, global economic growth as measured by PMIs has turned positive for the first time in 2 years, the official unemployment rate remains below 4%, the most important stock to the markets -- Nvidia -- just beat expectations on earnings & revenues... So it's unsurprising the bulls are feeling large & in charge right now. Talk of hitting S&P 6000 later this year is getting louder. Is that likely? In heady times like these, turning to the data & navigating by what it's telling us is often highly useful. Which is why we're fortunate to have one of the best technical analysts in the industry, Tom McClellan, joining us today to share his latest interpretation of the current market action. Tom is watching several key indicators that, if their decades-long correlation with the stock market continues to hold, suggest a material correction is coming in the second half of this year. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarketcorrection #stockcrash #oilprice

Extended, Overbought Market Likely To "Cool Its Heels" Soon | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart May 25, 2024

Show notes

It's been a week to remember for stocks... After the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ each hitting all-time highs earlier this week, Nvidia blew past expectations on both revenue and earnings, eclipsing $2.5 trillion in market value. The bulls are feeling large & in charge as a result, though stocks may take breather soon -- as signaled by Thursday's bloodbath in the markets despite Nvidia's big beat. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts sees stocks as extended and overbought in the near term, and expects a "cooling off" period to happen soon. We discuss the reasons why, as well as recession risk, the latest employment data, technical indicators, and our advice to job seekers in this Weekly Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvidia #jobs #stockmarket

Bull Market In Gold Still In Early Innings | Ronnie Stoeferle May 23, 2024

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Today's guest is best known for publishing the world's most respected annual analysis of the precious metals market, known as the In Gold We Trust Report. It covers what's driving supply & demand, the performance of the metals vs the companies that mine them, and what the outlook for prices is. This year's report, subtitled The New Gold Playbook, was just issued last week -- all 400+ pages of it. To learn its highlights, we're fortunate to speak today with one of its co-authors, Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Managing Partner & Fund Manager at Incrementum AG. Ronnie calculates that the bull market in gold is still in the early "Accumulation" phase. That will be followed by the "Public Participation" and "Distribution" phases. Before the bull run is over, Ronnie sees gold being substantially re-priced higher. Access the new 400+ page In Gold We Trust report, for free, at https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/34291/?lang=en

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #gold #goldprice #preciousmetals

Wait...Interest Rates Cuts Will Be MORE Restrictive Than Hikes? | Cameron Dawson May 21, 2024

Show notes

After a blowout Q1, stocks swooned in April, raising concerns the bull rally had ended.

Nope.

The bulls returned in May and as of this recording, the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ are all trading at all-time-highs.

Wall Street is confident, the financial media is downright gleeful, and the market momentum has a lot of tailwinds behind it right now.

But...there are headwinds, too.

Which will win out as we head closer to the uncertainty of the November elections?

For perspective, we're fortunate today to talk with Cameron Dawson Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth.

Cameron thinks that markets still have room to run here. But she warns that if the Fed starts cutting rates later this year, it may have the OPPOSITE effect of what investors are hoping for.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#interestrates #ratecuts #investing

10 Million Prime-Age Adults Giving Up On Work | Nicholas Eberstadt May 19, 2024

Show notes

While the official unemployment rate remains at a low 3.9%, there is an epidemic in the US and other Western countries of men -- and now increasingly women -- without work. These are millions of otherwise able-bodied working age adults who have given up on finding work, often driven to do so out of frustration and despair. It's gotten to the point where 1 in 6 prime working age men has no paid work at all. What is causing this? And what can be done about it? Because when an increasing percentage of your prime working age population stops contributing to economic productivity, not only do they suffer the consequences of diminished prosperity -- we all do. For a deep dive into this pressing crisis, we're fortunate to speak today with Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and author of the book Men Without Work. Get Nicholas' book here: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Without-Work-Americas-Invisible/dp/1599474697 Follow Nicholas at https://aei.org/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #depression

Stocks Zoom Back To All-Time Highs. Will They Stick? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart May 18, 2024

Show notes

Three week's ago, the S&P had fallen below 5,000 and Wall Street was worried the party in stocks might be over.

Nope.

Stocks rebounded and, as of today, the S&P, Dow, and (almost) NASDAQ sit at all-time highs.

Technically, it looks like the bull trend is set to continue says portfolio manager Lance Roberts, especially with $1 trillion of announced buybacks set to flow into markets through the rest of the year. Though stocks have moved so far so fast that a short-term pullback is quite likely.

Lance and I discuss what's driving the current stock surge, the signs he's monitoring to sense when it may be ending, Warren Buffett's latest warning to investors, and Lance's firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#investing #bullmarket #stockbuybacks

Hey Investors: Stocks Fall When The Fed Starts Cutting Rates, Says History | Danielle Park May 16, 2024

Show notes

When today's guest appeared for the first time on this channel a few months ago, a start was born. Those who hadn't yet heard of Danielle Park were impressed by both her command of the macro data and her unflinching courage to call things as she sees them. She highlighted a number of concerns about the trajectory of the economy and markets back then -- and today we check back in with her to see whether things have improved...or gotten worse? Well, Danielle thinks they're "worse". Stress cracks in the economy are now much more clearly visible. And the markets? While they're currently being driven to new highs by "madness" (see: Gamestop), investors hoping for rate cuts may indeed get them. But history shows that stocks fall, often hard, during rate cut regimes. So investors better be careful what they wish for. And they'd better be prepared. Too many are too long and too confident right now. To hear how she's positioning client capital right now, watch this video. Follow Danielle on X/Twitter at @kdaniellepark, on her daily blog at https://jugglingdynamite.com/, or at her website at https://www.venablepark.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debt #recession #interestrates

Big Money Buying Up Our Homes Is "Never Going To Stop" | Ken McElroy May 15, 2024

Show notes

Many of the recent housing analysts I've talked with, like in last week's excellent interview with mortgage expert Melody Wright, see tougher times ahead for the real estate market.

So for further context, I thought it would be helpful to get a true "boots on the ground" view from one of America's more successful property investors.

What is he seeing across the thousands of property units in his portfolio?

Is he buying, selling, or holding steady given current market conditions?

And where does he see the housing market headed from here?

For answers, we turn to Ken McElroy, founder and CEO of real estate investment and property management firm MC Companies.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#realestateinvesting #housingmarket #homeprices

Stephanie Pomboy: The "Spent Up & Lent Up" Consumer Is Tapped Out May 12, 2024

Show notes

It feels like a tale of two economies right now.

If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs.

But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story.

One of hardship, where wages aren't keeping up with the massive spike in cost of living, where companies are reducing hours, freezing hiring or actively laying workers off, and households are increasingly forced to turn to expensive credit cards to fund living essentials.

Which of these is more accurate?

And are things likely to get better or worse from here?

For an expert view, we're lucky today to talk with Stephanie Pomboy, economic and market analysis and proprietor of MacroMavens.com

Follow Stephanie at https://macromavens.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#inflation #deflation #recession

Stocks May Cool Off For A Bit After Best Week Of 2024 | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart May 11, 2024

Show notes

The Dow just had its best week of 2024.

And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows.

As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts.

It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two.

Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away.

Lance and I walk through the charts, as well as discuss the late-breaking consumer sentiment and jobs data, the wisdom of Freddie Mac's proposal to enter the home equity market, and, of course, his firm's latest trades.

For everything that mattered to markets, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#investing #stocks #jobsreport

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