Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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Why Did Stocks Just Fall 5%? | New Harbor Financial Apr 23, 2024

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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Stocks have sold off sharply since hitting all time highs just 3 weeks ago. Bond prices are falling, too. What's going on here? Is this just a needed pullback to remove excessive froth before the market resumes rising to all-time highs? Or is this a more significant reversal? For a professional's perspective, we turn to John Llodra and Mike Preston, the lead partners at advisory firm New Harbor Financial. Many of you already know that New Harbor is one of the financial advisory firms endorsed by Thoughtful Money. To schedule a free consultation with them, fill out the short form at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #goldprice #marketcorrection

Time To Go Short The Market? | Kevin Muir Apr 21, 2024

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On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame.

The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages.

Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate cuts.

And geopolitical tensions have puckered tighter following the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel.

Is the exuberant sentiment that drove the past year's bull market now gone?

Or it is just taking a breather before continuing to climb what has suddenly become a much steeper Wall Of Worry?

For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world.

Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#marketcorrection #volatility #investing

S&P Drops Below 5000: How Much Farther Is It Likely To Fall? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Apr 20, 2024

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Well, the relentless bull rally that began in November is over.

Stocks fell hard this week, with the S&P breaking below 5000 on Friday. It's now down nearly 300 points from its all-time hit, which it hit just 3 weeks ago.

How low is this pullback likely to go?

Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss just that in this week's Market Recap, as well as sticky inflation, rising bond yields, lackluster retail sales and the dangerous warning the NFIB data is sending about jobs.

And as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week.

For everything that mattered to the market, watch this week's Market Recap.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#marketcorrection #bondyields #bearmarket

Get Ready For "Much Larger Swings To The Downside" | Adam Kobeissi Apr 18, 2024

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The headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong.

The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient"

But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling.

Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%).

So why is there such a big disconnect here?

For context, we're fortunate to talk today with Adam Kobeissi, publisher of the popular capital markets report, The Kobeissi Letter.

While Adam remains guardedly bullish in the near term, he thinks market risks are mounting and that investors need to prepare for "much larger swings to the downside" as the year progresses.

Follow Adam at https://www.thekobeissiletter.com/

Or on Twitter at @kobeissiletter

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#bullmarket #marketcorrection #jobs

Iran vs Israel: How Worried Should We Be? | Ryan Bohl Apr 17, 2024

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This is a live Special Report with geopolitical expert Ryan Bohl, MidEast analyst for the RANE Network.

Given the serious nature of and confusion around the escalation of hostilities between Iran & Israel, I've brought Ryan on the program to ask him: - The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel - What led to this weekend's attack? - What do you expect to happen from here? - What impact is this conflict having on the global economy & financial markets? - If things escalate, how concerned should those living in the West be? - What will it take to de-escalate the situation? Ryan takes live audience Q&A near the end of the interview #israel #iran #worldwar3

Gold Is At An All-Time High. What Does That Mean For Markets? | Axel Merk Apr 15, 2024

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The price of gold has experienced a breakout over the past month and a half.

What does that mean?

Is that a sign that investors are worried about higher inflation to come?

Or that capital is fleeing to safety in advance of approaching economic trouble?

Or is this price surge due to speculative zeal?

For answers, we turn to capital manager Axel Merk and his team at Merk Investments, who manage several funds that invest in the precious metal sector.

We'll also ask them their thoughts on the future prospects of the gold and silver mining companies.

Will their performance catch up to, and perhaps outpace that of the metals soon?

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#goldprice #silverprice #miningstocks

Now That We're In Reflation: Still Be Bullish, Just Not As Much | Darius Dale Apr 14, 2024

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When I last interviewed today's guest back in December, he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into 2024.

And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money.

The S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1

So what is his model telling us to expect in Q2?

To find out we'll ask the man himself.

Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro.

Darius still maintains a bullish stance, but now that we've moved out of the "Goldilocks" regime and into "Reflation", the intensity of that stance is only moderate at this point.

Follow Darius at https://42macro.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#reflation #inflation #bullmarket

Stocks Have Broken Below Their Trendline. Will They Regain It? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Apr 12, 2024

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The unending string of up weeks we saw in stocks in Q1 has ended here in April.

The market had a volatile week, with the S&P ending roughly 100 points lower and bond yields continuing to rise, with the UST 10-year now over 4.5%

Notably, the S&P has broken below the bullish trendline it has been trading in since the bull rally began back in November.The breakdown is unconfirmed as of yet.

But if stocks close a little lower from here without regaining their 20 Daily Moving Average, then it will be...so next week will bear close watching.

Portfolio Manager Lance Roberts and I discuss this in depth - as well as Jesse Felder's "three 50s" warnings, inflation, bonds, the price action in gold & oil, as well as his firm's recent trades.

For everything that mattered to market, watch this week's Market Recap featuring Lance Roberts.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockmarketcorrection #bondyields #goldprice

Stocks To Fall ~20%, Recover Before The Election, Then "Drop Precipitously" | David Brady Apr 11, 2024

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In Q1, investors could do no wrong.

Making money was easy as almost every asset class rose to new highs as markets anticipated coming interest rate cuts from.

But here at the start of Q2, things are starting to feel a lot less safe. Suddenly stock prices are plateauing, and services inflation plus a swiftly rising oil price are quickly dashing hopes of rate cuts anytime soon.

Will the markets offer a bumpier ride from here?

To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with David Brady, money manager, former FX trader, and author of one of the most popular investing publications on Substack, the FIPEST Report.

David has a pretty grim outlook for the stock market. He expects stocks to fall 20-30% soon, recover before the election as the Federal Reserve returns to QE, and then, once the election is over, "drop precipitously"

Follow David at https://fipestreport.substack.com/

Or on Twitter at @GlobalProTrader

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stockcrash #gold #silver

The Market Is Priced For A Fairytale Economy, But Stagflation Is Much More Likely | Jesse Felder Apr 09, 2024

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Today's guest expert is concerned that too many investors, giddy with the ferocious market gains since November, are increasingly willing to pay prices for assets that only make sense if the pace of gains continues into the far future.

This is called "extrapolating the unsustainable" and is a hallmark of late stage price melt-ups.

Historically, this behavior has not ended well for those engaging in it.

Will it prove different this time?

To find out, as well as hear his outlook for markets, we're fortunate to speak today with Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report.

Jesse warns that while the market is currently priced for a Goldilocks Econonmy, stagflation is much more likely.

Follow Jesse at https://thefelderreport.com/

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

#stagflation #recession #marketcorrection