Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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Only 1 Rate Cut In 2024? What Does The Latest Fed Guidance Really Mean? | Axel Merk Jun 13, 2024

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In its latest guidance released this week, the Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady for now. The Federal Funds rate will remain unchanged at 5.25% But the Fed did lower its rate cut forecast for 2024 to just 1. And it raised its 2025 rate cut expectations upwards from 3 to 4. It largely did this because its outlook on inflation is notably more optimistic than in previous months. Wall Street certainly liked what it heard, with the S&P jumping over 1% on the news and Treasury yields falling. But does this slightly more optimistic view actually change anything? To find out, we sat down right after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference with Axel Merk to get his real-time assessment. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #interestrates #inflation

Will Rising Unemployment Trigger A Recession? | Michael Kantrowitz Jun 11, 2024

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Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by cooling the economy with its aggressive "higher for longer" interest rates and Quantitative Tightening, the US has managed to avoid recession. Consumer spending has held up, largely due to the "strong" jobs market. But is that likely to remain the case going forward? And if not, if unemployment starts to rise significantly, what should we expect? Mass layoffs? A recession? A correction in the financial markets or home prices? Or none of these? To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler. He's created the HOPE framework, which provides a way for us to track recession risk, and gives us the ability to project what's likely to happen next for the economy. Michael's forecast is surprisingly nuanced and contains elements both bulls & bears should heed. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #employment #recession

Doomberg: These "Big" Energy Solutions Will Power Tomorrow's Economy Jun 09, 2024

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In today's discussion we look at the all-important energy market. Remember, without energy, there is no economy. As we look to the future, where are global energy trends headed? Which ones are we likely to turn to more to power the world of tomorrow? And where are the best opportunities for investors likely to lie? To discuss in depth, we're fortunate to sit down with the green chicken himself, the energy expert Doomberg. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #oil #nuclearenergy #naturalgas

Will Coming Week's Inflation & Fed News Cause Markets To Pop Or Drop? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Jun 08, 2024

Show notes

Stocks remain overbought at current levels and volatility remains low. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts expects markets to tread sideways until next week's CPI data and latest Fed guidance are in. If they show the economy is indeed slowing down faster than expected and/or inflation is moderating, stocks will likely pop as rate cut hopes will be put back on the table. But if not, will markets drop? As Lance notes, valuations and earnings forecasts are now at elevated extremes, and any diminishment to the current optimism could start giving investors the jitters. We discuss these odds, as well as the weakening labor market outlook, the GameStop circus show, concerns about AI demand, and Lance's latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #gamestop #employment #inflation

Brent Johnson: Important Update On The Dollar Milkshake Theory Jun 06, 2024

Show notes

According to Truflation, the US dollar has lost nearly 25% of its purchasing power since January of 2020. Many everyday Americans struggling to pay their monthly bills may argue that's an understatement. What the US dollar does, vs real things as well as vs other national currencies, has very real implications -- economically, financially & geopolitically -- for everyone watching this video, regardless of where you live. For a better sense of what it's likely to do from here, we're fortunate to speak today with Brent Johnson, CEO & Portfolio Manager at Santiago Capital, and developer of the Dollar Milkshake Theory. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #dollar #currency #inflation

Ted Oakley: A Bear Market WILL Happen Jun 04, 2024

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As we enter the midpoint of 2024, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago. Stock in particular, have had a phenomenal run over the past 7 months. So it's little surprise that the bulls expect the party to continue on through the rest of the year. Will it? To find out, we turn to the experience and wisdom of financial advisor Ted Oakley, managing partner & founder of Oxbow Advisors. Ted has over 40 years experience helping clients, mostly high net worth families, protect and build wealth through good times and bad. We'll find out how he's currently positioning his clients assets for the coming year. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #recession #inflation

Jim Grant: Inflation & Interest Rates Are More Likely To Rise Than Fall In The Years Ahead Jun 02, 2024

Show notes

Between February 2022 and August 2023, in order to combat hot inflation, the Federal Reserve rocketed its discount rate from near 0% to 5.25% -- the most aggressive interest rate schedule in living memory. Since then, the Fed has kept the rate at 5.25% -- the 'higher for longer' era But despite this, even when paired with Quantitative Tightening, economic growth remains robust, inflation is lower but is proving sticky, unemployment remains under 4%, and the stock market is at all time highs. In short, the Fed's aggressively restrictive policies haven't cooled things down much. They've been so ineffective that even the Wall Street Journal is asking "Do interest rates really matter anymore?" To find out, we have the great fortune of speaking today with perhaps the world's foremost living expert on interest rates, James Grant, founder and editor of the highly-respected market journal Grant's Interest Rate Observer. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #interestrates #inflation #recession

Near -Term Sell Signal Triggered For Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Jun 01, 2024

Show notes

The S&P 500 has recently had a near-term sell signal triggered, during a week where many Tech stocks -- including Nvidia -- sold off harder than the general markets. This shouldn't be a cause for major concern. But it explains why the market is down from it all-time high 10 days ago, and may likely have farther to fall until the overbought conditions are fully worked off. The latest slowing CPE inflation data gave Wall Street a little more hope on Friday that rate cuts may not be pushed as far into the future as has been currently feared. And this gave a boost to bonds, brining the US 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.5%. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss all this plus his firms latest trades in this week's Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #nvidia #nvda #inflation

Are Car Prices Headed Down? | Yossi Levi May 30, 2024

Show notes

If you' re planning on possibly purchasing or selling a car in the near future, or just curious about how the latest action in the auto market are impacting your current car's value, you'll want to listen up to today's guest. We're fortunate to be joined today by auto expert and car dealership owner Yossi Levi, who will give us his latest boots-on-the-ground reporting on the key trends driving supply, pricing & lending in the car market right now. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #carprice #buycar #carlease

Should We Be More Worried About A Social Breaking Point Than A Financial One? | Peter Atwater May 28, 2024

Show notes

In markets as in life, sentiment drives decision making. And until sentiment shifts, the status quo will maintain. Even when at extreme conditions. Today's guest has made the study of sentiment his life's work. Which is particularly timely given that consumer confidence continues to plunge, with the recent April Consumer Confidence numbers coming in far below the consensus estimate. This is important because when it comes to the markets, as well as a number of other issues central to our way of life, we may be walking dangerously close to a tipping point where the prevailing sentiment suddenly reverses and the herd bolts in an unexpected direction -- potentially leading to sharp changes most will be caught unawares by. So what do we need to be keeping our eyes on most closely? To find out, we're fortunate to speak today with behavioral economist Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary College, and author of the book The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity. We'll ask him what his key confidence indicators are telling him about the prospects for the rest of 2024. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #socialunrest #bullmarket #sentiment

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