Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

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Rough Week For Stocks As Credit Spreads Issue Warning | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Jul 20, 2024

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Well, portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for a while now that stocks were materially overbought and due for a 5%+ correction. And it looks like that started this week, with the S&P selling off 3% over the past 3 trading days. Interestingly, it began with a massive flow of capital into small cap stocks, though that moderated a bit as the week progressed. Whether or not this is the beginning of a Great Rotation from Big Growth into Small Value remains to be seen. But more interesting to Lance is that credit spreads are starting to widen in lower-quality bonds. This is the first rumblings of concern we've seen in the part of the market that truly matters. Is a sleeping dragon awakening here? Lance and I discuss that as well as the likely economic implications of Trump's economic plan, whether the Fed will really cut rates in September, and Lance's firm's latest trades. For everything that mattered to markets, watch this Weekly Market Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #creditspreads #trumpeconomy #interestrates

Michael Green: The Stock Market Is Now A Giant Ponzi Scheme Jul 18, 2024

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There is a mechanical force that pushes asset prices higher as capital flows passively into the market every month. As more money flows in, it must be used to purchase assets, at whatever current price they're trading at. That valuation-insensitive purchasing results in higher and higher prices. Today's guest refers to this current system as the "giant mindless robot". And, in his view, has deformed our financial markets into a gargantuan ponzi scheme of unprecedented scale. One that someday must go bust, as all ponzis do. For all the details on this, we'll spend the next hour with Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #stockmarket #assetbubble #ponzi

What If A Coming Recession & Bear Market Are The LEAST Of Our Worries? | John Rubino Jul 16, 2024

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History is full of examples where nations resorted to taking on ever-increasing amounts of debt to maintain a positive economic growth rate. But it never works out well for those who do. Most often, they end up sacrificing the purchasing power of their currencies in the process. Many analysts are now raising such concerns about the fast growing national, corporate and consumer debt pile in the US and other G7 nations. Are we repeating the mistakes of history? Or is it truly different this time? To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome monetary and macro analyst John Rubino, author and co-author of numerous books including The Money Bubble with James Turk. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #debtcrisis #marketcorrection #recession

Michael Pento: Stocks "Running On Fumes", Risk Of A 30-80% Crash Jul 14, 2024

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress this week to defend his current monetary policy. While we don't have the results of that testimony as of the time of this recording, Powell has recently stated that he is now seeing the kind of disinflationary path for the US economy that he's wanted to. This of course has Wall Street salivating again that rate cuts are near at hand. Are they? For perspective, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies. Michael warns that we have the most overvalued stock market ever, and the liquidity that drove it to today's extremes is starting to run out. In his words "We're running on fumes". And stocks are at risk of correcting 30-80% from here. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #bearmarket #marketcrash #marketcorrection

Fed Fears Too-High Rates Are Starting To Crush The Economy | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Jul 13, 2024

Show notes

Yes, Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is hoping he can cut rates soon. But it's less because he's proud he's won the inflation battle. It's more because he's afraid the Lag Effect from his "higher for longer" interest rates are starting to visibly damage the economy. Portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz stands in for Lance Roberts this week to talk about the Fed's unfolding scramble to get to rate cuts before the wheels come off. We're already seeing concerning signs: 1.5% (or less) GDP growth for 2024 so far, rising unemployment, runaway deficits and struggling consumers. Can the Fed ride to the rescue before the wheels come off? Michael and I discuss that, as well as everything that mattered to markets, in this week's Weekly Recap. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #bonds #interestrates

"It Will Feel Like A Recession" When Unemployment Hits 4.5% By Year-End | Bloomberg's Anna Wong Jul 11, 2024

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The US economy appears to be slowing down. Final Q1 GDP growth came in at just 1.4% and, as of this recording, Q2 GDP is currently estimated to be little better, at 1.5%. Retail sales for May, the most recent data we have, only grew at 0.1%. And unemployment is starting to tick up, too, rising last week to 4.1%. Now, none of these stats are particularly worrisome on their own. But together, are they signalling rockier economic times could like ahead? To find out, we have the good fortunate to talk today with Dr Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg Economics. Prior to her current role, Anna also worked at the Federal Reserve Board, the White House Council of Economics Advisers, and the U.S. Treasury. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #unemployment #jobs #recession

Luke Gromen: Expect Market Turbulence Ahead Due To Tightening Dollar Liquidity Jul 09, 2024

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Former Vice President Dick Cheney famously said "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter" True or not, running greater and greater federal budget deficits has become standard operating procedure for Washington DC. When Cheney uttered those words, the annual deficit was in the low hundreds of billions. It's projected to be $2 trillion this year. At that scale, today's guest expert would argue that deficits are indeed starting to matter, because the US is now increasingly challenged to service the debts and other associated liabilities that have accreted from all the years of rising deficit spending. In fact, he concludes we're on a collision course for a sovereign debt crisis, one that will take the purchasing power of the US dollar down with it. To find out why, and what can be done about it, we're fortunate to welcome Luke Gromen, founder of macro research firm FFTT, LLC, back to the program.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com

Follow Luke at FFTT-LLC.com #volatility #marketcorrection #dollar

Tap Into The Same Advantage That Hedge Funds Do | Andrew Beer Jul 07, 2024

Show notes

When I graduated from Stanford Business School 25 years ago, a classmate announced he was going to work for a hedge fund and the rest of us asked "What's that?" Fast forward two and a half decades and the financial markets are practically overrun by hedge funds collectively managing over $5 trillion dollars. And while certain hedge fund managers have become financial celebrities through dazzling returns in their best years, the industry is generally more better regarded as a modern version of Wall Street doing what it does best -- lining its pockets at the expense of others. Is this accurate? Or are there benefits the hedge fund model offers to markets, and perhaps even to the little guy? To find out, we're fortunate to talk today with Andrew Beer, co-founder and managing member of DBi, which seeks to put the strategies behind successful hedge funds into the hands of the retail investor. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #hedgefund #managedfutures #investing

"Massive Deviation" Between The Markets & The Economy | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart Jul 06, 2024

Show notes

There is a massive deviation between stock valuations and earnings growth: growth in the former is far outpacing the latter. This is unsustainable warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. And unless economic growth suddenly surges (and no catalyst for that is on the radar), then asset prices will need to come down in order to bring the ratio back into balance. And with GDP growth coming in at1.4% in Q1 and currently at 1.7% (and slowing) here in Q2, asset price reduction indeed seems like the more probable outcome. In this video, Lance and I discuss this, as well as market technicals, whether the latest inflation & jobs data increase the odds for a near-term rate cut by the Fed, the importance of sentiment, the latest market technicals and Lance's recent trades. If you like the new studio background, it was created by Inspired Spaces Designs. They do great work and can be contacted through their website https://inspiredspacesdesign.com/ & their Instagram https://www.instagram.com/inspiredspacesinc/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #earnings #stockmarket #inflation

Chris Whalen: The Economy's At A Tipping Point Jul 04, 2024

Show notes

Today's guest wrote the book "Inflated: How Money & Debt Built The American Dream" In it, he wrote: "The first rule of any fiat system is no fiscal deficit" Well, the US -- and virtually every other G7 country -- is breaking that rule six ways to Sunday given the unprecedented record levels of deficit spending currently underway. Does that mean we're headed for trouble? To find out, we'll ask the author himself, Chris Whalen, Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and expert on the banking, mortgage finance and fintech sectors. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #inflation #debt #bankingsystem

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