The Pollsters

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#66: Are the polls making you freak out? May 25, 2016

Show notes

We’re back in the soundbooth--no noisy hotel hallways this time! And check us out this weekend on The Big Listen--a podcast (and actual WAMU broadcast) about podcasts. We really enjoyed talking to Lauren. As always, don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter. Poll of the week: get the government out of our bathrooms Voters in this recent NBC/WSJ poll show many don’t want any type of government in their bathrooms--state law or federal intervention. And very high don’t knows on how people feel about transgender use of bathrooms. Should you panic? Uh, no? Last week when we discussed the effect Sanders might be having on Clinton’s general election performance, we didn’t have a lot of data. But there have been a few more polls this week suggesting Democrats may in fact be slightly more unified than they were this time in 2008. The new CBS/NYT poll shows far more Republicans are divided than Dems, and far more feel Clinton can unite party than Republicans say the same about Trump. And more Sanders voters say they’d vote for Clinton than Clinton voters said they’d vote for Obama same time in 2008.Greg Sargent from the Washington Post has a good writeup on this as well. Gallup also shows both Clinton and Sanders voters don’t think Sanders hurting their party. Perhaps the dialogue among Democratic insiders is different from that around Democratic voters. This wouldn’t be unlike how Republican insiders have felt much more strongly about Trump than have Republican voters, even if, as Gallup shows, Republicans are favorable, but still not totally pleased with their nominee. Meanwhile, everyone hates everyone The latest wave of polls suggests there are lots of “nose-holders” and Trump and Clinton are tied. Can this be real? Can we trust the polls this far out? Many pollsters and poll-watchers have weighed in. The latest NBC/WSJ poll says Clinton and Trump are currently the least popular front-runners in the poll’s history. The ABC/WSJ poll said the same. There are also some new subgroup polls in the mix, such as this recent breakout of Latinos, and this new poll of the AAPI community. To sort through the onslaught of data, Norm Ornstein & Alan Abramowitz write in NYT to “stop the insanity” Susan Powter-style, and Jon Cohen and Mark Blumenthal of Survey Monkey respond. Mark and Jon raise an important point--we need to be focusing on *why* Trump is doing well, and less on whether he is tied, or up a few, or down a few, as in this recent Vox dialogue with pollsters. Ask a millennial! Millennials want marriage & kids, but maybe not at the same time? As our resident Millennial, Kristen (author of “The Selfie Vote”) is not surprised. But the number of Millennials living with their parents--well, that’s pretty high. And don’t get us started on Europe. This year’s summer song. Billboard has a poll of the top song of summer. We don’t know if the answers will surprise you, but they surprise Margie, who clearly needs to get out more. And if you want to be part of Kristen’s musical tastes forever, you have a few more months. Key findings: People want the government out of their bathrooms. Seems reasonable enough. Meanwhile--the 2016 race is the opposite of reasonable. But the polling is kind of consistent--so why is that what everyone is freaking out about? I’m going to freak out if my children are living with me when they’re 35. How did Justin Bieber come up again in this podcast? We can’t even blame Kristen--we blame the polls.

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#66i: David Rothschild w/Microsoft Research on "the innovator's dilemma" May 24, 2016

Show notes

Kristen interview David Rothschild from AAPOR. We know you'll share David's enthusiasm for talking about the industry, predictive markets, non-probability sampling, and the "innovator's dilemma." Find more about David here.

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#65: A good pollster says: "You're going to die" May 20, 2016

Show notes

What the heck is AAPOR? Well, just a whole lot of awesome! Kristen gives us a report. And we report from a hotel hallway, so apologies for the sounds of conference-goers in the background. Poll of the week: What’s in a name? Washington Post updates an older poll of Native Americans about the name of the local football team. There’s a difference between finding a term offensive and being bothered about a team’s use of it. Regardless, it seems like good news for Dan Snyder. And the methodology is just as interesting. 2016: We’ve got questions! Polls have answers (maybe) Okay, Trump may be the nominee, but can he really win? Is he bringing new Republicans to the polls? Or is he going to hurt the Republican party downballot (& Ryan)? Is Sanders hurting Clinton? Who should Clinton pick as her VP? What about a third party? What do other pollsters & poll-watchers say? “You’re going to die” The national race between Clinton and Trump is narrowing, per Huffington Post. Dems want Sanders as HRC’s VP, says Rasmussen Is sanders hurting clinton? Margie gives a shrug emoji, and not sure what to make of Huffington Post fav ratings Steve Shepard on pollsters trying to figure out trump, with smart thoughts from Kristen & Mark Blumenthal. Breaking! Trump has a pollster! An actual pollster! Who some say woudl be able to say “you’re going to die.” Well, that seems like a good skill for 2015! Is Trump expanding the party? (spoiler: no.) Chris Cilizza on “truly independent” poll: “truly terrible.” Meanwhile, is Trump hurting Paul Ryan’s numbers? PPP asks. Pew on the sharing economy Some Americans have done none of these, according to Pew. Margie has done a chunk of them in the last 24 hours. Pew on the sharing economy Graduation gifts: Congrad-uations! Get it? You’re going to get lots of cash, survey says. NRF on graduation spending. Key findings There’s a diff between offensive and bothersome. But I’d love to hear more research about Native Americans think beyond just the team name. Trump’s got a pollster! And it’s not himself! Expect those poll-tested tweets any day now. We truly appreciate people like Chris Cilizza weighing in on poll questions. Truly. Are you a regular part of the sharing economy? That would make you not quite like most Americans? Congrats to our grad listeners! Expect cash! Not from us--from us you can get an RT--but cash from everyone else.

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#65i: Molly Murphy from ALG talks issue polling May 16, 2016

Show notes

We talk to Molly Murphy from Anzalone Liszt Grove about polling on issues and being a young woman in the business. Learn more about her here.

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#64: Lice, Arby's, Socialism, & Donald Trump May 12, 2016

Show notes

Go find Kristen at AAPOR! And Margie’s Austin tips include the 2nd street warehouse district and South Congress. Poll of the week Trump is less popular than lice, Nickelback. PPP, you gave us the poll America needed, but didn’t know it wanted. PPP on Trump 2016: Controlled Burn Are Sanders voters going to vote for Trump? And is the general really getting closer already? WV exit polls (Dem side) Quinnipiac battleground poll Survey Monkey/NBC Nate silver goes on tweet rant Longform is hot! People spend more time with longform on their cells than shorter content. Facebook sends more visitors, while Twitter users are more engaged. Pew on media consumption Pew on FB vs. Twitter Socialism is not! Is socialism having its moment? Well, not according to Gallup. Gallup data on socialism and capitalism over time Education: Students don’t think there is too much testing? Unlike everyone else. Gallup poll Swipe left if you want to go on a date to Arby’s. Kristen & Margie are launching a side-hustle of helping with your online profiles. Not really. YouGov on dating app profiles Key findings: If “Make america great again” doesn’t work out, Trump can transition to “Trump: more popular than hemorrhoids” But how popular is trump compared to school testing? Question for further study. Longform is back in! Sort of like other retro habits like canning tomatoes. Or pencils. Is it too early to talk about how too early it is look at general election polling? Not for us! Good thing Margie's not single, because there doesn’t seem to be any dating app for people for Dem women who like white wine & oysters on the half shell.

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#64i: Michael Dimock, president of Pew Research May 09, 2016

Show notes

After sharing a panel at the Milken Global Conference, Margie corners Michael Dimock, the President of Pew Research Center. They talk about Pew's mission, their latest study comparing online panels, and how he got his start. Check him out on twitter here.

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#63: Trump gets the nom! Margie gets a new gig! May 06, 2016

Show notes

Folks! Margie has a new gig & we have new mugs. We’re almost totally a real show now. Poll of the Week! Are you Cinco-de-Mayo-ing properly? Do you understand the meaning of Cinco de Mayo? Aside from guacamole & margaritas? Univision poll Indiana results: well, that was interesting. Meet your new nominee, folks. Fun, huh? CNN exit polls Survey monkey/NBC NYT/upshot analysis Who knows? Pew knows! Does your online panel stink? Maybe! Who knows! Well, Pew knows, but isn’t telling you. Common sense media Teens & their smartphones. Yikes! I’m already worried. And i’m the problem! Common Sense Media survey Mother’s day Moms want: a little R&R, and income inequality. PSB/Shriver poll on moms Stacy’s snacks survey

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#63i: Celinda Lake & Ed Goeas talk 2016 May 02, 2016

Show notes

Top pollsters Celinda & Ed started their partnership at a piano bar. Really! We talk to them about the latest Battleground Poll, plus their views on the industry. Read more about the poll here.

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#62: The "not the Acela primary" plus Prince & Beyonce Apr 28, 2016

Show notes

Would Kristen & Margie swap shoes during a panel? Um, no. Please? Um, still no. Stop playing the Acela Primary card! Sanders is hurting Clinton as evidenced by her winning so much? And Trump is playing the crazy man card. Huffington Post trends Exit polls Gallup on gender & paying attention Ask a Millennial! R’s who haven’t read the selfie vote, call your office. Kristen had a dream that Republicans did nothing to appeal to young voters, and so they slowly became more Democratic. Oh wait. Harvard IOP poll The Selfie Vote Surprise! You’re an independent. Are you an independent, or an “American Independent”? What’s the difference, well... LA Times./Tulchin/Smith Johnson Research poll Pop Icon vs. Politician. Whether it’s Prince or Beyonce, pols vs. pop is a losing battle. Record labeling Buzzfeed Prince quiz Bloomberg Politics/Selzer poll in Iowa Key findings: Anyone want to challenge a majority of the electorate & see how turns out in the polls? Deal us in! Meanwhile, it looks like capitalism & wall street may be sleepy issues this election cycle--on both sides of the aisle. Independent--I don’t think that word means what you think it means. Californians, check the fine print! It was Earth Day & all I got was more partisan division. Purple Rain is the Purple One’s top song, polls show. And whether prince or beyonce, pols And speaking of Purple, thanks for three great years @ Purple Strategies (and thanks for the cozy soundbooth Cold Harbor Films)! I’ll have an announcement soon about what’s next.

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#62i: Patrick Ruffini, of Echelon & "Floor Fight" Apr 25, 2016

Show notes

Patrick (Kristen's business partner) has a new podcast about the delegate hunt. We talk to him pre-NY about all the fun we're going to have this summer. / Patrick (Kristen's business partner) has a new podcast about the delegate hunt. We talk to him pre-NY about all the fun we're going go have. Listen to his new show "Floor fight" & follow him on twitter here.

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