The Pollsters

Latest Episodes:

#56: Beware Trumpism. And Robots. Mar 16, 2016

Show notes

The Pollsters: We’re everywhere! Check out Kristen in Elle, check us out in The Onion’s A/V Club, and check us out in-person at the Newseum. Poll of The Week: The Robots. They’re Coming. The robots are coming for you. Just maybe not for us. Pew on robots The Superest of Tuesdays A great night for Trump, a great night for Clinton, a great night for polling, and a bad day for all of us. CNN results and exit polls Huffington Post primary polling Trump delegates in Chicago Trump delegates in Chicago, pt2 Trump delegates in Chicago, pt3 Huffington Post general election matchups Monmouth poll on Trump violence Welcome Spring! People have attributed this warmer winter to climate change. Gallup on climate change What the data say, or says, about the Oxford comma FiveThirtyEight uses math to explain English. Key findings When it comes to polling, and The Pollsters, the hits just keep on coming. We may not welcome our new Trump overlord, but we do welcome our new robot overlords. And robots do anything about climate change? b/c that’s what people think is behind this warm weather. The data *are* clear--the Oxford comma is the winner.

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#56i: Christy Quirk on Research in Conflict Zones Mar 14, 2016

Show notes

Christy Quirk left political polling behind to travel the world doing research in conflict zones. We track her down in Nice. Check her out on Twitter.

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#55: Michi-can or Michi-can't you trust the polls? Mar 10, 2016

Show notes

Do you need an excuse to watch the new F/X OJ Simpson series? And do you need more yoga, more podcasts, or more women commentary? On all fronts, we got you covered. Michi-can or Michi-can’t trust the polls? The Sanders Michigan upset had a lot of folks doing their usual polling handwringing. But don’t panic! FiveThirtyEight on MI Politico on MI WP on Michigan HP/Pollster on Michigan FiveThirtyEight on Sanders vs. Clinton voters NeverTrump? What can we say about Trump and his supporters? Does he do well because of his hateful language, or despite it? Morning Consult YouGov/HP Trump question at the Democratic debate WP study on Trump voters Gallup on each GOP candidate's voters WP study on authoritarianism We are the 14-49%! C’mon producers/hosts, you can do better! Studies show between 14-49% of 2016 prime-time AM/PM talkers are women. VOX/CAWP study of women talkers You are the 21%! Hey, podcasts are totally a thing now. Forget the Serial effect, more like The Pollsters effect. Edison Research infinite dial Just breathe Margie went to Tulum for relaxation, and she found...polling. Yoga Journal poll Key Findings The moral of the Michigan michigoss: 1) we need more polling! and 2) we’re going to get more polling! Is Trump doing well because people are responding to racist language? or because they’re responding to his clarity of message? Or because they hate the establishment? No matter the answer, isn’t it time for all hands on deck? Remember you are already on the cutting edge of two trends: listening to women commentators and podcasting. If primary season is still getting you down, try some yoga, where women rule, and actual hand size is sometimes relevant, not some childish insult.

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#55i: Peter Shulman with @histopinion Mar 07, 2016

Show notes

We talk to historian Peter Shulman, who regularly travels in the polling hot tub time machine to find public opinion artifacts. Check out his twitter handle @histopinion.

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#54: From Super Tuesday To Wacky Wednesday Mar 02, 2016

Show notes

The Pollsters is now twice a week! You may not be able to stop Donald Trump, but you are able to encourage us to change our format. We’ve gone from Super Tuesday to Walking Dead Wednesday--we’re running on fumes, folks. Sorry! Super Tuesday, Wacky Wednesday NYT has the best way to look at the exit poll data. Pay attention, data viz folks! Dems & GOP. From the Way Back Machine of last week: Bloomberg/Purple primary GOP poll that asked about pope vs. trump. Margie was wrong!! Meanwhile, Melania. And meanwhile, Michigan. Cosmo: Ask A Millennial! Cosmo/Millennial women poll. How about next time they Ask a Millennial? Ask a Reddit Bro: Not many people use Reddit, but those who do get their news there. Pew on Reddit & news consumption Oscars so...underpolled? Oscars seem to beat the Grammys as far as relevance, but maybe not as far as diversity? YouGov on oscars Key findings: Lots of voting, lots of exit polls, but maybe the race is exactly in the same spot as it was Monday. If the Pope can’t defeat Trump, then only the entire country workign together can do it. Cosmo: Some polling tips to make your audience go wild! Next time: ask a Millennial! Meanwhile, if you want to know where the bernie dudes are, check Reddit. Oscars so...Important? White? Over? Long? E, all of the above, please!

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#54i: John Aristotle Phillips with Predictit Feb 29, 2016

Show notes

It's our first move into our new twice/week format, with our interview with John Aristotle Phillips of Predictit. We dig into the world of political predictive markets, and talk about John's career building voter technology, and his early start into politics.

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#53: Leaving Las Vegas for March Madness Feb 25, 2016

Show notes

The polls have closed, and the responses are in: 39% want a longer show that combines interviews with our regular briefing & 52% want a sep show for the interview. and 9% said “fewer interviews, bah humbug!” So--you’ve spoken! And we’re listening. So starting next week we’ll have two episodes a week: one with interviews & one without. Number of the week: Is feminism anti-men. Sadly, some men think so. We’re not anti-men, we want what you got! YouGov on feminism NV in our rear-view mirror. Where to next? Echelon calls SC using IVR. Pollsters get NV right after all. The GOP circus is headed to Texas, Florida & Ohio. The Dem circus is headed to Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma & Massachusetts. Get ready! OH GOP poll/Quinnipiac FL GOP poll/Quinnipiac Echelon Insights on Medium/SC poll TX GOP poll TX GOP poll/Monmouth Fox national Dem poll HuffPo Primary averages HuffPo General averages Latino Decisions The news out of NV for both contests was what happened with the Latino vote. But Latinos are far from monolithic, entrance polls are still polls, and both Pew and the Washington Post/Univision add context. Washington Post/Univision poll Pew on Millennials & Latinos McLatchy on NV Dem battle over Latinos Trump winning Latinos in NV SCOTUS I guess we’ll need to do a weekly SCOTUS segment? There’s lots of new polling. HuffPo on question wording Pew on SCOTUS PPP on OH, PA SCOTUS impact Apple of the FBI’s eye Hey! We found an issue on which Ds and Rs agree! Pew on Apple vs. FBI Ask a Millennial: What big news about Millennials almost beat “man sneaks into luntz focus group” on our Facebook page? We ask our resident Millennial: Kristen. Although perhaps on this front Margie is more like a Millennial? USA Today on wine The Selfie Vote Even dog-owners don’t want dogs in bars. Dogs in a bar: no. Dogs at a dog-happy hour at a bar? Uh, maybe? Cats a grocery store? No! America, you’ve spoken. No dogs at a bar, says YouGov Key findings! Buckle your seat belts for March Madness! Even by next week we’ll have a clearer idea where the race is going. But no one knows right now where the November race is going--don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Meanwhile, the SCOTUS fight is already heated & it’s barely even started. Other things not heated: Apple vs. the government. Dogs at bars. Meanwhile, Millennials aren’t all bad. They drink wine don’t they?

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#52: Fear & Loathing AND Las Vegas. The Supremes AND the Grammys. Feb 17, 2016

Show notes

Listeners! We have a question. Well, actually a survey. We have so many wonderful interviews queued up. But sometimes the interviews get a little long. Do you want them integrated into longer regular weekly episodes? Or as standalone episodes, meaning shorter episodes twice a week? Take our Twitter poll: @thepollsters. Poll of the week: Now Fear This! Now that people are coming to terms with a Trump nomination somewhere between likely to certain, some pollsters are asking how people feel about this: Scared? Or really really Scared? As often in this Presidential race, we turn to Canada. Canadian poll on fear USA Today/Suffolk on fear Dem Side: Firewall? Does HC have a firewall? And if so, is it Nevada, SC, Super Tuesday, Super Delegates? Something else? We thought we’d have to wait all the way till Saturday for some more public polling in NV but PHEW! There is some. CNN/ORC NV poll Twitter NE voter sentiment, study shows Huffington Post/Pollster: NV Dem contest Huffington Post/Pollster: SC Dem contest Huffington Post/Pollster: National Dem contest NBC/Survey Monkey national poll with race breakouts Gallup on Dem candidate favs by race GOP side: Fireproof? Trump continues to breathe fire & not get burned. He can be a 9/11 Truther, or an Internet Troll, it simply doesn’t matter. And his base in SC seems ready to go even farther. Huffington Post/Pollster: National GOP contest Huffington Post/Pollster: SC GOP contest PPP Poll in SC Bloomberg/Purple SC focus group The Supremes No new polling (yet!) on the all but certain Scalia replacement showdown. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t something from the archives! Gallup on Scalia, Supreme Court You guys forgot too. We kinda snoozed last week by not mentioning the Grammys, Valentine’s Day, OR President’s Day. But it looks like we’re not alone. Rasmussen on President's Day YouGov on the Grammys NRF on Valentine’s Day experiences Key Findings The Democratic race is narrowing, but can it narrow fast enough for Sanders? The Republican race is winnowing, but can it winnow enough to defeat Trump? Whatever candidate you fear, we all fear week-long stretches without polling. Soon the other half of America will be hearing a lot more about the late Justice Scalia. Did you miss the Grammy’s? President’s Day? Polls show like us, you probably did too.

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#51: Pollsters, take a bow! And Joe Lenski from Edison Research Feb 11, 2016

Show notes

With New Hampshire in our rear-view mirror, Pollsters, take a bow. And then take a moment to write a review on iTunes, or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. In New Hampshire, the winner is: Pollsters! The pollsters were right this time around. Are you surprised? We’re not! Decision-Desk HQ Final exit polls Joe Lenski from Edison Huffington Post/Pollster trends We’re all news junkies now Pew says almost everyone is getting news about 2016. (Hey, but what about podcasts?) 2016! You can’t escape it! We’re all revolutionaries now People seem open to a “political revolution” but also fear big government. Try reconciling that. Vox/morning consult Ask a Millennial! Do Millennial women just go to the candidates “where the boys are”? We discuss. Jill Filipovic article The Selfie Vote Key Findings Take a bow, pollsters! Just like about 7 or so remaining candidates, we live to fight another day. And by the way, be thankful that person breathing down your neck while you’re crunching the numbers is not ALL OF AMERICA. Because then you’d be Joe Lenski. We asked a Millennial if young women vote according to where the boys are. She said no. I’m sure this means this won’t come up again. People are more worried about big government than big business. But yet want to expand government. One of the many reasons nearly all of America is gripped to the news this election season.

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#50: Our 50th Episode! And 6 Observations From Iowa Feb 04, 2016

Show notes

We made it to our 50th episode! If you like what we’re doing, don’t forget to write a review on iTunes, submit our show to NPR’s earbud.fm, or on @thepollsters on Twitter & Facebook. The polls of the week: Good news/bad news for Trump A day without Trump polling in the news, is like a day without, uh, Trump polling in the news. The Trump effect on federal employees Bloomberg/Purple on Trump shooting someone What happened in Iowa? We took a break from listening to pollsters to listen to voters. And the lesson was...the pollsters were wrong? Is the sky really falling? We walk through six theories and observations. FiveThirtyEight on post-Iowa polling FiveThirtyEight on Iowa being hard to poll Media shares blame (Huffington Post) Echelon online sentiment Kristen’s Medium post Washington Post graphic visual of voters Mark Blumenthal & Jon Cohen on their internal data The New York Times on Trump’s polling CNN’s entrance polls Dave Weigel on Ann Selzer “silver standard” Feminism What’s better-received “feminism” or “the women’s movement”? Interesting new deep-dive. Washinton post/Kaiser Full poll The Selfie Vote Ask a Millennial! How many Millennials say they’re likely to leave their jobs in the next two years? Maybe not as many as you hope? Deloitte annual study of Millennials Happy Birthday Super Bowl--And Us! This weekend is super bowl 50! And we celebrate The Pollsters 50! Most people are celebrating with a party, and perhaps a new outfit or television. NRF’s latest survey Key Findings Iowa, it was nice knowing ya. And poll-skeptics, just try to make it to NH without getting another fix Ask a Millennial--to stay at their jobs? Happy birthday Super Bowl! And happy birthday to us!

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