The Pollsters

Latest Episodes:

#29: The sound booth is a Trump-free zone (not really) Sep 10, 2015

Show notes

Hi new listeners! Last week was our best rated show ever--by a lot! So thanks again to Ann Selzer for a great interview. And welcome! If you haven’t already folks, please write a review on iTunes or on Stitcher--it makes a huge difference as to whether people find us. Or tweet out that you like the show. 2016: We wanted to give a little bit of a break to 2016, with the CNN GOP debate next week, and post-debate polling to cover. But there was so much, we couldn’t help it. Trump and Carson continue to dominate. But Kasich surges in New Hampshire, while Bush and Walker continue to falter. On the Democratic side, Sanders leads for the first time in Iowa. But we’re still not convinced voters are rejecting Clinton. And Biden is strong too. CNN/ORC polling Quinnipiac polling NBC/Marist toplines for NH & IA. New Monmouth National poll/Dems Gallup polling on Clinton favorability Labor Day Views toward labor unions seem to surge, but that doesn’t mean voters are optimistic about labor’s future. And the most effective economic policy may be reducing gender pay discrepancies. That would suit women just fine. Gallup on union ratings Gallup on POTUS ratings among union members Gallup on gender pay equity Gallup on popular economic policies Someone else not working on Labor Day Is Kim Davis a good general election strategy? Is it even a good primary strategy? Huffington Post/YouGov on Kim Davis Millennials: “Who are you calling a Millennial”? Kristen wrote the book on Millennials. Literally! What does she think about Millennials not wanting to be called Millennials? Pew study on generation labels YouGov: ⅓ of young Americans not completely straight Pew on use of messaging apps (& instant delete messaging apps) Pew Catholics open to nontraditional families Gallup’s got your back. Get it? These numbers are better than Margie’s jokes. Gallup on Chiropractors This new regulation probably changes everything about research Should you start panicking about the new FCC regulations on the way pollsters reach respondents? Listen to this interview with Howard Fienberg from the Market Research Association and then decide. The MRA Key findings Oh, we tried to give everyone a little break from 2016. Or a little break from Trump. Maybe next week, or maybe a few weeks from now… Any pollsters or handicappers who said Sanders had hit his ceiling, or said Trump had hit his ceiling...well, you’re welcome on our show anytime for a mea culpa. (This means you 538 & Upshot. And everyone!) Pro-tip: Millennials don't want to be called Millennials. Meanwhile, polls suggest voters may want to talk about income inequality, and gender in the workplace, but not Kim Davis?

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#28: Iowans are trying to make Sanders & Carson happen Sep 02, 2015

Show notes

Welcome new listeners! Don’t forget to write us a review on Stitcher or iTunes so others can more easily find the show. 2016: Iowans are trying to make Sanders and Carson happen. So this big news this weekend is a Des Moines Register poll showing Clinton

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#27: Back to school! Aug 27, 2015

Show notes

This week Kristen has some family time and we have a special guest co-host of Kellyanne Conway of the polling company/WomanTrend. Kristen will be back next week. 2016: We revisit four questions about Trump-mania. And get ready for Biden-mania? Is it real? Will it last? What’s behind it? How does it affect the Republican brand? Both Biden and Sanders are doing better in the polls. But does that really mean Clinton is vulnerable? NYT/Upshot/Civis studies Trump Monmouth South Carolina poll Luntz focus group of Trump voters) Pew shows 1/4 unfavorable to both parties 538 on Sanders PPP/New Hampshire poll Gallup on Hispanics' view of GOP field Suffolk/IA poll Quinnipiac national poll Guns Before the tragic shooting of two reporters Pew released some tracking of views on guns. Widespread agreement about specific gun proposals, yet the dialogue remains partisan. Pew on guns Gallup on parents and school safety Back to school It’s back to school, and back to polling. Kellyanne and Margie agree on something, prompting Beckett to fall asleep. Gallup/PDK survey on public schools Key Findings Maybe the Dem primary is getting more interesting than the GOP primary? Could that be? The polling on stronger gun laws doesn’t change much, and sadly the number of gun crimes doesn’t seem to change much either. On education, there is more agreement than disagreement across demographic and party lines--even on our own show!

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#26: With friends like these, who needs pollsters? Aug 20, 2015

Show notes

Welcome new subscribers! You came just in time for silly season! 2016 (Dem edition): Some good news for Biden? And are Clinton email stories driving--or simply reflecting--the current climate? CNN on the Dem candidates Fox News poll on Clinton emails Monmouth on Clinton emails Gallup on Biden Quinnipiac 3-state general election poll 2016 (GOP edition): Trump is still the headline, but a clearer picture emerges as to his ability to damage the party. And as Fiorina rises, Walker sinks. Should other candidates adopt Trump-ism on immigration? What about Republican issue stalwarts like labor unions or Planned Parenthood? KSA in The Daily Beast CNN on GOP primary Gallup on immigration NBC/WSJ on immigrationGallup on unions Reuters on Planned Parenthood funding Welcome to CrazyTown! So i guess it’s summer silly season. Because in addition to all these polls we have feuds & fake candidates. "Deez Nuts" grabbing voters in PPP poll Trump: Pollsters make $200K a month Luntz vs Stone vs. Trump in Politico You need a friend--to help you wax? How many of these things would you do for a friend, even if it’s national friendship week? How many would Kristen and Margie do for each other? Skout survey on friendship Key findings: Maybe in a few months we’ll be talking about Biden vs. Fiorina? Given Trump’s vulnerabilities, Republican candidates may not want to follow him off the issue cliff. For 200K/month, we’ll help you figure it all out! And we’ll even split it! (bargain!) Friendship may mean help with waxing or cats, but in DC it means twitter fights, splitting big retainers, & writing amazon or iTunes reviews.

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#25: Trump vs. Bernie Aug 13, 2015

Show notes

Last week we had our biggest download day ever! So now some debate post-game to follow up that pre-game. Feeling the Bern in New Hampshire The latest polling shows Sanders up in New Hampshire, but the interesting data is beneath the surface. Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald NH Dem Poll CNN/ORC poll IA Dem poll Trump: 1st is the Worst More people said trump did worst job in debate than said best job. Yet why is he still leading? Two recent online polls shed some light, including one from Kristen’s firm Echelon Insights. We also talk about the growing acceptance of online poll methodology, including Google Consumer Surveys. MSNBC/Survey Monkey poll CNN/ORC IA GOP poll Echelon Insights poll Washington Post/Monkey Cage Pessimism on race Both Gallup and Pew show more now worried about race relations. Although there are a few silver linings on hopes for the future. Gallup on race: Release #1Release #2 Pew poll on race Work/Life balancing acts There’s no shortage of studies on work-life balance. Washington Post and the New York times make the economic case, and others show some interesting demographic breakouts. Washington Post Poll on work after kids NYT article on millennial dads NYT Upshot 8/10 article - Can Family Leave Policies Be Too Generous? Key Findings NH is feeling the Bern! But the interesting stuff is beneath the surface. Trump is still strong in the polls. Despite having the worst debate performance. Go figure. Across the board people are worried about racial tensions. And we still see major gender divides and struggles over work-life balance. Perhaps whatever the topic, online studies are improving.

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#24: How is polling like a crying baby? Aug 05, 2015

Show notes

Hard to forget a crying baby--whether you’re in a Maine diner, on a podcast, or if he’s standing next to you on the debate stage. When polling is the story: The GOP debate This week the GOP debate makes big news, especially the polling leading up to the debate. WSJ: WSJ/NBC poll Fox News article Fox News Poll Bloomberg: Trump Dominates in pre-debate poll CBS Poll And the Dems? While not as big news as the GOP pre-debate polling, new polls confirm the primary narrows somewhat. WSJ: Clinton loses ground with white women WMUR: Granite State Poll Top pollster takes Boy Scout oath We talk to Lee Miringoff from Marist about their decision to not be part of the pre-debate polling. Politico: Marist suspends polling McClatchy: Marist suspends polling to avoid being part of debate Miringoff: 10 reasons polls should not determine debate eligibility Key Findings: Polling is as much the story this week as the debate. But when pollsters find that troubling, then I think that’s a problem. Even with all the polling, some story lines--like Trump’s bump, or Sanders vs. Clinton--end up being rorschach tests anyway. If the polls are driving campaign news this far out, we have a long campaign ahead of us. Make sure you have subscribed! Lastly, Maura Duggan has been the best intern ever! Thanks Maura!

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#23: Trump-mania Jul 30, 2015

Show notes

Kristen is on the road and Margie’s still in the closet but we head right into the eye of the Trummania storm. Four questions about Trump polling: is this bump real? (Do the polls reflect real trends?) What’s driving it? Will it last? Is this just a “fling”? What will this do to the GOP brand? Politico: What Trump Bump? NBC/Marist Polls: Iowa NBC/Marist Poll: New Hampshire Bloomberg/Purple: Trump focus group Monmouth Poll: Immigration Nate Silver: Trump Nickelback CNN/ORC poll Gallup: GOP Familiarity/Favorability Huffington Post: Grassroots Activist Republicans Pew: GOP favorability Cuba moves As the candidates make moves on Cuba, Pew has new data on opinions on the changing relationship between the two countries. Pew Polling Report: Cuba CBS Poll: Cuba Pot, Alcohol, Coffee, Salt, Fat & Gluten. Not in that order. What’s in, and what’s out...of our bodies. Gallup: Marijuana usage Gallup: Drinking Gallup: Drinking highest among educated, upper-income Gallup: Coffee Consumption Gallup: Fat and Salt Gallup: Gluten-free habits NYT: Americans eating less Gallup: Americans exercising more Book Banning Plans on curling up with a good book this summer? Better act fast because some folks support ratings systems and even bans. Harris Poll: Censorship Summertime Overtime Or maybe just email the office on your vacation. That’s what we do! Roper Center: Vacation Time

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#22: Trump vs. Sanders (on polling) Jul 22, 2015

Show notes

This week we’re back in the soundbooth, with special guest Baby Beckett! Also, don’t forget to buy Kristen’s book, The Selfie Vote. What to Trump & Sanders have in common? Most polling continues to show Trump in the lead, or close to it. Even in the aftermath of his McCain comments. On the Democratic side, one poll show Sanders and Clinton doing equally well in the general. Yet neither Trump nor Sanders believe in polling, it seems. We discuss. Monmouth: 2016 Iowa poll WaPo: Trump leads GOP field Gallup: Trump Core Issue Ratings Quinnipiac: Sanders head-to-head with Clinton Huffington Post: Sanders $0 for polling Trump Pollsters Tweet Latino Decisions: Threshold to win in 2016 Campaign finance Speaking of campaign spending, a new poll shows voters divided on the impact campaign finance rules are having on our presidential contest. But how closely are voters studying either? Monmouth: Campaign finance Conflicting, simultaneous views on Iran With the deal back in the news, there is new polling, showing voters simultaneously supportive but cautious. YouGov: Americans on Iran Deal AP/GFK: Iran relations Fox News: Iran Deal Tweeting all moms! Ah, parenthood, All the joys, all the Facebook posts… Pew: Parents and social media Key Findings: If it’s Trump vs. Sanders, everyone’s going to move to public polling. Speaking of a fun field, voters in both parties say campaign finance rules are not helping. Voters say they’re following the Iran deal, and are both supportive and cautious. Hey parents out there! Tweet Margie with your advice on having the best maternity break ever!

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#21: Can politics Trump science? Jul 15, 2015

Show notes

In the last two weeks, Kristen had a book & Margie had a baby. But now we’re back with the latest in polling news! Bet you can’t Trump this! The polls are pretty clear--Trump is #1. But that doesn’t mean people are taking him seriously. Or does it? YouGov: Donald Trump/GOP race Gallup: Trump not seen as serious candidate Suffolk/USA Today: Trump on top Washington Post: Trump word cloud ABC/WaPo Poll: Trump’s favorability The science on science “Science” is not just one issue, but a whole litany of topics. Some have demographic drivers, and some don’t. Pew breaks it down. Pew: Politics and science I’ll pay you $5 tomorrow for a survey today Do you need to reimburse cell phone respondents for their time? Pew ran some experiments. But whatever you do, don’t borrow young women’s cell phones--they need them! Pew: Cell phone respondent reimbursement Gallup: Smartphones Gallup: Life Without Smartphones Grateful for polling The biggest Deadheads are Republicans. What would Jerry say? PR Newswire: Grateful Dead poll Hey baby, what’s your sign? Is astrology stll a good pickupline? And more importantly, does it predict the future? YouGov: Horoscopes Abs are the cure for sexism Half of America thinks Hollywood is sexist YouGov: Hollywood Sexism TIME: Magic Mike vs. Magic Mike XXL Key Findings: The verdict is in--Trump is #1. Even though no one seems to want him there. Views toward science need more science to explain. You can keep sending respondents $5 reimbursements. Or not! Kasich is a former deadhead--maybe he’s onto a trend the rest of us don’t know about. Ladies love astrology, their smartphones, & Magic Mike.

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