The Pollsters

Latest Episodes:

#73i: Fix the debates with Clea Chang of IQUS podcast Jul 18, 2016

Show notes

The folks at the Intelligence Squared US podcast want to fix the debates. We talk to Clea Chang about it. Fix the debates petition IQUS podcast

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#73: What's scarier: Pokemon or politics? Jul 13, 2016

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The polls are like Pokemon: gotta read them all! Thanks for the great reviews guys, especially to the person who mentioned Joey Lucas. Pokemon! A new reason to keep your phones handy at all times. YouGov Poll Pew Poll on Gamers 2016: Trumpers going to Trump It doesn’t matter what kind of press he gets, Trump still stays close in the polls. Huffington Post 2016 General Election Tracker Washington Post/ABC poll on FBI not charging Clinton Sanders supporters are more likely to back Clinton without third-party candidates Bloomberg/Purple poll on college education and voting tendencies Quinnipiac swing state poll Who gets the “warm bucket of spit” job? Does it matter? Margie’s team did this awesome new simulator. PSB VP Simulator More polling on race, violence, and the police Tragic violence last week. Morning Consult poll comparing police brutality to violence against police Rasmussen - does media encourage attacks on police? Matt K Lewis on cameraphones and violence Cry me a river! John Boehner is a Gender Avenger? YouGov on crying Key findings: Pokemon is a thing! Don’t say we didn’t warn you. Trump! Don’t say we didn’t warn you! Newt Gingrich! Well, consider yourself warned. Shooting by police, and shooting of police--this is the kind of forced-choice question we’re not sure is so helpful. If you want to take a Holly Hunter cry break. Well, America can agree that this is okay.

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#72: Are you prepping for the Trump-ocalypse? Jul 06, 2016

Show notes

To the angry reviewer who complained we do too much advertising and propaganda--this show’s for you! We promote our own stuff, and lament the sad Trumpian state of affairs. Hope you like it. Poll of the Week: The On-Demand Economy It is more than just a ride to the airport or your lunch delivered. PSB/Burson/Time article on the future of work Full research deck Is there a time machine that can take us to a non-Trump universe? What happens when we change up the competition? HuffPost general election tracker SurveyMonkey: Clinton vs. Not Trump Reuters poll on racial attitudes of candidates’ supporters Kristen contemplates a future for the GOP The Atlantic: most American Christians think they’re victims of discrimination Full PRRI/Brookings report WP/Monkey Cage on authoritarianism Politico Magazine on authoritarianism Lee Greenwood, call your office We hope you’re one of 52% that does this 4th. Gallup poll finds a 16-year low in American patriotism What do Congressional staffers think about their job security after november? There could be major changes in both the Senate and the House. CQ Roll Call: Democratic staffers are increasingly confident Wine & Sushi forever We trust the experts. NYT poll: do nutritionists and the public agree? Key findings: You may think of the on-demand economy is just about being about a taxi to the airport or a sweetgreen salad to your office, but employers are thinking about this trend more carefully. Trump voters--just like Trump--are not your typical Republicans, particularly when it comes to views on race. If we don’t talk about it openly now, we won’t be ready for the post-Trump-ocalypse Elections have consequences, according to DC insiders. That doesn’t mean scoring White House tour tickets, but maybe a change in both the Senate and the House? Hope you celebrated the fourth by being proud to be Americans. And if not, hopefully you ate some wine, sushi, tofu, or hummus, in true, multi-culti American fashion.

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#71: Don't blame the pollsters (or The Pollsters)! Jun 30, 2016

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We're traveling this week, but that doesn't mean we haven't gotten your messages or read your reviews! Thanks for the nice words everyone! Poll of the week: Not to say I told you so, but… Remember when we said Democrats would coalesce around Clinton? Of course you do. Washington Post on Donald Trump’s ever worsening month Trump’s Dumpster Fire = a Trumpster Fire The polls are mostly bad news for Trump this week. Whose to blame, if not the pollsters? Washington Post candidate approval polls Gallup on Trump’s support among Republicans Ballotpedia swing state polls Quinnipiac swing state polls Trump blames the pollsters Then Gingrich lashes out at pollsters in Trump’s defense Other countries have more faith in Putin than in Trump Gary Johnson blames pollsters -- how is he doing? Brexit...was it a polling bust? Online polls were right, and telephone polls were very wrong. What is next for the UK when 3 million want to leave? Nate Cohn of the New York Times John Cohen of Survey Monkey Online polls were right about Brexit More than 1 million want to change their vote Gallup American economic reaction to Brexit Opposition for second referendum Do we talk too much about race, or not enough? Is our concentration on race affecting political decisions…? Pew on race in the US Voters’ racial attitudes The Princess Diaries - what the polls say about how much people see Princess Stuff. Playing with princesses may cause girls to avoid important learning experiences that aren’t perceived as feminine or believe their opportunities in life are different as women. Disney princess culture magnifies gender stereotyping Disney princesses change American kids Key Findings Good news for nevertrumpers, but bad news for bernieorbusters. Lots of people want to take on The Pollsters, to which we say, bring it! Measuring bias is always tricky, but there are some sobering differences across party and candidate lines. Maybe Trump needs to play with more princess toys. That way he’ll think his leadership options are limited.

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#70: A little breakfast beer with your Brexit? Jun 23, 2016

Show notes

Last week Margie was on vacation, mucking up the audio & having a hard time relaxing. But we’re back in the soundbooth with some tributes to dads, Brexit, and jingles. Poll of the week: Father’s Day In honor of Father’s Day in the rear-view mirror, some polls of interest to parents everywhere. If you’re a grumpy US parent, you’re not alone. Quartz on US parental happiness gap Ace Metrix on best Father's Day ad 2016: Trump’s had a bad few weeks. But does it matter? Clinton has the edge in the polls. But it’s not so dramatic. That’s even with the completely bonkers spending disparity. Huffington Post/pollster H2H average Huffington Post/pollster DJT favs Quinnipiac swing state polls Huffington Post/pollster HRC favs Steve Shepard/Politico on candidate favs New polls on guns As we predicted last week, there is lots of new polling out on guns. But can the polls answer why the policies and public opinion don’t seem in sync? YouGov pre/post Orlando polls CNN on guns NBC/Survey Monkey on guns Gallup on guns Update Brexit Trackers Brexit is a nail biter! Can pollsters declare victory no matter what happens? Telegraph on poll modes Telegraph on polling worries Huffington Post/pollster Brexit tracker Economist Brexit tracker Bloomberg Brexit tracker YouGov Brexit by age Pew on Brexit You’re stuck on The Pollsters... Bring back jingles! Well, maybe not all of these jingles. YouGov on most popular jingles Key Findings Have you hugged a parent today? You should! And if you think parenthood is unpopular, you should see Donald Trump. Gun polling vs gun policies continue to flummox Margie. Our predictions: polling is so tight in the UK, many pollsters can declare victory. (Also, Breakfast Beer is about as fun to say as Brexit.) Try this at home: give your friend an earworm by singing 10 different jingles.

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#69: We love you Orlando Jun 17, 2016

Show notes

Dialing in from the road: Kristen on her hometown Orlando. Margie on her pet issues of LGBT rights and stronger gun laws. Can this year get any crazier? Polling suggests maybe not. Orlando’s implications on gun laws, threat of terrorism, and LGBT safe spaces We try to make sense of the gun polling--views on terrorism, on an assault weapon ban, and more. Margie’s picks on how to take action on Orlando Bloomberg Politics National Poll CBS News poll YouGov poll post San Bernardino YouGov poll just before Orlando Pew Research poll on religion and support of LGBT rights Quinnipiac poll on gun laws Pew on guns Gallup on terrorism Gallup on terrorism & guns A bad week for Trump Trump’s had a terrible time in the news this past week. And voters seem to be moving away from him. Real Clear Politics average NBC News poll Yougov/Huffington Post poll with open ends on the candidates Trump thinks he discovered polling Confidence gap What’s this newspaper thing of which you speak? Gallup poll shows low confidence in newspapers Harvard Study of media coverage of the 2016 election From the department of sports Hockey fans are different than basketball fans. And Philly Phanatic fans are different from everyone. YouGov poll on NHL vs NBA fans Public Policy Polling on the Phanatic Key findings: Take some time this week to not only think about the tragedy in Orlando, but about gun violence prevention--all of it. What are you doing this week to reduce gun deaths? At the pollsters, we’ve always known the polls were a big deal, and we value the press--but perhaps we’re alone? Whether you’re a Phillie Phanatic fanatic or an extroverted hockey fan, you probably think this election is crazy--and that’s putting it nicely.

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#68i: Courtney Kennedy from Pew Jun 13, 2016

Show notes

Courtney Kennedy is the new director of Survey Research at Pew Research Center. When other pollsters and partisans looked at the 2000 exit poll craziness with shock and excitement/despair, Courtney thought "that's so cool!" We talk to her about some of the great experiments Pew is cooking up. Follow Pew here.

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#68: Gurl, the nominee! And how is Trump like the NJ turnpike? Jun 08, 2016

Show notes

Hi all! We have some great interviews--this week with Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac. And next week we'll have Courtney Kennedy from Pew. Poll of the week: Breaking! People are not freaking out enough about Zika Are you freaking out about Zika? Well, why not? Harvard study on Zika Gurl. We got a candidate. If you think Democrats are not unified, well, just look at the data. YouGov/CA poll The General, AKA: Yikes Gallup has tons of great breakdowns this week of how different parties view the top issues, how Trump and Clinton voters view their own candidates, and how the two square off on everything. The bottom line: neither party is safe. Gallup on candidate traits Gallup on candidate issues Gallup on the top issues Quinnipiac on candidate promises Who’s to judge? Apparently, Trump may not be that far off public opinion as we might’ve hoped. Why is this the final “off-ramp” for Republicans? Haven’t there been lots of other off-ramps? YouGov on judge ethnicity Meanwhile, a real race is happening here! More people voted for their favorite Pokemon than in some states’ caucuses. Margie’s going to need Kristen to decipher this. The Pokemon election Key Findings: Gurrrl. That’s it, that’s all I got. We have a nominee, and Margie’s thrilled that it’s a woman. Meanwhile, don’t get complacent. Team Dumpster FIre has some advantages, and that is worrying. And which is more dangerous--the Zika virus, or Donald Trump? We didn’t know that Pokemon was still a thing, but it seems like Pikachu needs a branding campaign. Call us!

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#67i: Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac Poll Jun 06, 2016

Show notes

Doug Schwartz from Quinnipiac comes to The Pollsters' soundbooth to talk about polling methodology, students-as-interviewers, and what's next for their 2016 research. Find him on twitter here or here.

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#67: How is voting for Trump like premarital sex? Jun 02, 2016

Show notes

Sorry we didn’t do an interview show this past week. Even pollsters have to take a holiday sometimes. In the meantime, you can catch us on WAMU’s The Big Listen. It’s funny! Poll of the week: Elect This MTV talks to Millennials, and they just want this election to be over already. We feel ya! Also, they just skip right over podcasts & head to a polling topline YouTube video. MTV "Elect This" release "Infographica" video 2016: Californication and beyond. California is next up on the primary stage. Exciting! Or, maybe not? Meanwhile, other outlets dig deep into the Clinton private email server, the importance of “narrative” and the Rust Belt states. Huffington Post/pollster CA tracker Morning Consult on Clinton email/speeches John Sides/Washington Post/Monkey Cage on early ads Kristen/Echelon Insights/College Republican poll and CNN Bloomberg Politics/Purple Strategies/Rust Belt voters Monmouth University on Gary Johnson Moral values in decline Are moral values in decline? Voters say yes, but what kinds of values are they talking about? And can you find something morally unacceptable but do it anyway? Gallup on moral values in decline Gallup on moral values by religion Gallup on top priority for next President Five stars for all you happy travelers Margie is going to turn over a new leaf and write nicer reviews. Kind of like Russians. GetYourGuide shows world's happiest travelers The Atlantic on smiling Kristen has the need for speed Meanwhile, Kristen takes in auto racing, with predictable results. The Harris Poll on America's favorite sports Key findings Millennials are more engaged this election cycle I guess that's some political lemonade. It's dig into the data week! Although it all still points to trump being damaged but strong. What kind of moral values do you have if you're not prioritizing things like cloning, abortion or gay marriage? The kind shared by 98% of the electorate. Kristen is checking out new sports and I'm going to think about writing only kind reviews. But we'll do it all with smiles.

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