The Pain Trade Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Hype vs Reality: Kai Wu on AI CapEx Risks, Market Concentration, and the Next Phase of AI Investing Dec 25, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Kai Wu, Founder and CIO of Sparkline Capital, to break down how the AI investment cycle is evolving as scrutiny rises and market enthusiasm becomes more selective.

From hyperscaler spending and data center economics to market concentration and fading euphoria, Wu explains why investors need to rethink where real AI returns may come from and why the next winners may not be the obvious names.

In this episode:
– Why massive AI capex is starting to worry investors
– How market concentration amplifies downside risk
– The productivity debate behind AI adoption
– Why AI adopters may outperform AI infrastructure plays
– How to position portfolios for the next phase of AI investing

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#ArtificialIntelligence #AI #StockMarket #MarketRisk #TechStocks

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After the Rate Cuts: Jay Hatfield on Why Income, Small Caps, and Credit Could Lead Into 2026 Dec 24, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, to break down what the Fed’s latest rate cuts mean for markets, income investors, and portfolio positioning heading into 2026.

From a potential melt-up toward 7,000 on the S&P 500 to why preferreds, high yield credit, and small-cap value could outperform as rates fall, Hatfield explains how investors can navigate a market caught between easing policy, slowing growth, and lingering inflation uncertainty.

In this episode:
– Why Fed cuts historically favor risk assets and income strategies
– How preferred stocks and high yield credit could see upside beyond yield
– Why small caps benefit from rotation away from mega-cap tech
– How dividend and equity income strategies reduce portfolio volatility
– What Jay expects for inflation, rates, and markets into 2026

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

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Why Buy and Hold Is Failing: Building Portfolios for Volatility, Regime Shifts, and the Next Market Cycle Dec 23, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Greg Babij, Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Sundial, to explore why traditional buy-and-hold strategies may struggle in a market defined by faster cycles, rising volatility, and structural change.

From the rise of zero-day options to the importance of tactical exposure, tail hedging, and trend following, Babij explains how portfolios can be designed to survive growth, recession, inflation, and deflation without relying on predictions.

In this episode:
– Why buy and hold may no longer deliver the same results
– How zero-day options are changing market behavior
– The difference between prediction and probability-based investing
– Why tactical and non-correlated strategies matter more now
– How to construct portfolios that adapt across market regimes

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

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The Truth About Risk Parity: Alex Shahidi on Building a Real Balanced Portfolio Dec 18, 2025

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Markets sit near record highs even as economic signals send mixed messages, and many portfolios are more concentrated today than ever. In this Lead-Lag Deep Dive, Melanie Schaeffer sits down with Alex Shahidi, CO-CIO at Evoke Advisors, to break down what risk parity really is and why traditional frameworks like 60 40 may leave investors exposed.

Shahidi explains how growth and inflation cycles historically drive long term returns, why diversification is often misunderstood, and how a true balanced allocation uses equities, commodities, gold, treasuries, and inflation linked bonds to weather very different market regimes. He also discusses the philosophy behind the RPAR Risk Parity ETF and why more advisors are reconsidering how they approach portfolio construction.

In this episode:

Why most portfolios are less diversified than investors think
How growth and inflation surprises drive major market cycles
The role of commodities, gold, and inflation linked bonds in a balanced allocation
Why equal risk contribution matters more than traditional 60 40 mixes
How advisors can use risk parity to build more resilient portfolios

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #Investing #PortfolioStrategy #GlobalMarkets #RiskManagement #MacroTrends #AssetAllocation #Finance #MarketOutlook #ETFStrategies

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The AI Brokerage Era: How Automation, Custom Indexing, and Agentic Tools Are Changing Investing Dec 17, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Stephen Sikes, Chief Operating Officer at Public, to explore how artificial intelligence is transforming retail investing, brokerage platforms, and portfolio construction.

From AI-powered research to custom-built indexes and the rise of agentic brokerage, Sikes explains how new tools are giving individual investors access to capabilities once reserved for institutions and what risks and responsibilities come with that shift.

In this episode:
– How AI research tools are changing how retail investors analyze stocks
– What it means to build custom indexes using natural language
– The rise of agentic brokerage and automated portfolio management
– Where AI can help investors and where human judgment still matters
– Why the next generation of brokerages may look nothing like the last

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

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The Advisor Marketing Blind Spot: Mike Barrasso on Intent Data, AI Outreach, and Finding Clients Before They Call Dec 16, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Mike Barrasso, Co-Founder and CEO of WealthReach, to uncover one of the biggest blind spots in advisor growth: knowing who is researching you before they ever reach out.

From intent data and website visitor identification to compliant AI-driven outreach, Barrasso explains how advisors can stop wasting marketing spend and start engaging prospects at the exact moment they are actively looking for help.

In this episode:
– Why over 90 percent of advisor website traffic disappears without a trace
– How intent data reveals who is actively researching wealth management topics
– The difference between cold prospecting and warm, high-probability outreach
– How AI can personalize compliant emails at scale for advisors
– Why better data changes how advisors grow in a competitive market

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #WealthManagement #FinancialAdvisors #AI #MarketingStrategy #FinTech #DigitalMarketing #Markets

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Emerging Markets: Brendan Ahern on Internet Growth and Single Stock ETFs Dec 12, 2025

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Emerging markets are changing fast. Old economy sectors like banks and energy no longer define the space. Instead, growth is being driven by internet platforms, tech enabled consumer companies, and new economy business models reshaping how investors approach EM exposure.
In this Lead-Lag Deep Dive, Michael A. Gayed, CFA sits down with Brendan Ahern, Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares, to break down how this transformation is unfolding and what investors need to understand about both broad EM strategies and single stock levered ETFs.
Ahern explains the mechanics of daily leveraged ETFs, why fundamentals for companies like Alibaba, Mercado Libre, Pinduoduo, JD and others may be misunderstood, and how concentrated growth exposure differs from traditional EM allocations. He also discusses how investors should think about volatility, sizing, and the macro factors that create both opportunity and risk across emerging markets.
In this episode:
- How single stock levered ETFs actually work and why daily resets matter
- Why EM fundamentals are shifting toward internet platforms and tech enabled services
- The temptation and the risk in overweighting individual EM growth names
- How KWEB and KEMQ isolate growth that broad EM indices miss
- How to size and risk adjust aggressive EM exposures inside a diversified portfolio
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#LeadLagLive #EmergingMarkets #Stocks #Investing #TechGrowth #ETFStrategies #MarketOutlook #Finance #MacroTrends

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The New Cash Strategy: How TRSY Helps Investors Navigate Today’s Yield Landscape Dec 09, 2025

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Short term yields have shifted, liquidity matters more than ever, and investors are rethinking how to manage cash efficiently. In this Lead-Lag Deep Dive, Melanie Schaeffer sits down with Aram Babikian to break down the purpose of TRSY, why its structure is different from traditional cash vehicles, and how investors are using it in today’s rate environment.
They explore why liquidity, cost, and transparency are shaping cash decisions, how TRSY compares to CDs, money markets, and ultra short bond funds, and what its treasury-only structure means for both risk and potential tax advantages. Babikian also explains how the short duration profile, competitive expense ratio, and intraday tradability create flexibility for investors who need cash options without sacrificing yield.

In this episode:

• Why TRSY offers a different approach to short term cash management

• How intraday liquidity can help investors react to market volatility

• How expense ratios impact yield preservation in a higher rate world

• Key differences between TRSY, CDs, money markets, and ultra short bond funds

• The potential tax benefits tied to treasury backed income

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

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Global Food Risk: How Brazil’s New Potash Supply Could Reshape Fertilizer, Commodities, and Agriculture Dec 08, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Matt Simpson, CEO of Brazil Potash (NYSE: GRO), to break down how the Autazes project could transform fertilizer security for Brazil and shift the balance of power in global agriculture.

From navigating permits and construction milestones to securing long-term offtake agreements for more than 90 percent of expected production, Simpson explains how domestic potash supply could reduce Brazil’s reliance on imports and strengthen global food stability at a time when commodity markets remain volatile.

In this episode:
– Why fertilizer supply is tightening as global agriculture demand accelerates
– How domestic Brazilian potash could reduce geopolitical and logistics risk
– What the Autazes project means for future pricing, imports, and food security
– How infrastructure partnerships are cutting project Capex and speeding timelines
– Why growth in fertilizer demand could reshape commodities in 2025–2027

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

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Weekly Income ETFs Explained: GraniteShares + Top Creators Break Down the New Income Investing Boom Dec 05, 2025

Show notes

In this special Lead-Lag Live webinar sponsored by GraniteShares, Michael Gayed brings together some of the biggest YouTube creators in the income-investing space for a fresh, free-flowing conversation on weekly dividends, options-based income ETFs, yield strategies, and the rise of “living free from your brokerage account.”

Featuring leaders from across the ETF and income-investing world, this session dives into:

Why weekly dividend ETFs have exploded in popularity
The psychology behind income now vs long-term growth
How YieldBoost works — and how it differs from traditional covered calls
Myths and misunderstandings about options-based income
How creators and investors actually use weekly distributions
Global demand for passive-income tools
How income ETFs behave in a rate-cutting cycle
New launches from GraniteShares, including semiconductors & gold miners

If you’re looking to build income, understand the mechanics of modern ETF strategies, or learn from creators who have built massive communities in this space — this conversation is packed with practical insight.

#GraniteShares #YieldBoost #Dividends #ETFs #Investing

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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