The Pain Trade Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Truth Is the Battleground: Peter Todd on Ukraine, Information Warfare, and the Epstein Files Mar 03, 2026

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In this special episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Peter Todd, Founder of OpenTimestamps, for a conversation that goes far beyond Bitcoin volatility or market narratives.
Peter joins us directly from Kyiv, where he has been working on the ground to support Ukrainian units through targeted fundraising efforts including delivering repaired and donated 4x4 vehicles to frontline teams and supporting interceptor drone initiatives designed to stop attacks on civilian infrastructure.
But this discussion also touches on something larger. As debates over the Epstein files dominate online discourse, Peter explains how even truthful information can be used as a form of informational warfare by diverting attention away from conflicts that are unfolding in real time. In a world where deepfakes, AI generated media, and manufactured receipts can spread within minutes, tools like OpenTimestamps are being used to prove that digital evidence existed in the past and has not been recently modified.
From Bitcoin’s role in enabling anonymous charitable donations to the use of cryptographic timestamping to document events in wartime, this episode explores how technology, trust, and truth intersect in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment and how viewers can directly support verified aid efforts in Ukraine through organizations working on interceptor drones and frontline logistics.
In this episode:
– Why Bitcoin drawdowns may be less important than geopolitical risk
– How truthful information can still be weaponized
– Why the Epstein debate may be crowding out more urgent realities
– How OpenTimestamps helps verify digital evidence
– How viewers can directly support Ukrainian aid efforts
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
X:https://x.com/peterktodd
https://opentimestamps.org/
#EpsteinFiles #Trump #Bitcoin #UkraineWar #Geopolitics #Crypto #InformationWarfare #WarInUkraine #GlobalConflict #BreakingNews

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The AI Trade Is Shifting: Adoption, Infrastructure Risk, and Hidden Concentration in the S&P 500 Feb 24, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Kai Wu, Founder and CIO of Sparkline Capital, to break down why the AI boom may be entering a new phase and why investors concentrated in infrastructure stocks could be taking more risk than they realize.
With nearly half of the S&P 500 tied directly or indirectly to AI infrastructure buildout, Kai explains the dangers of crowded positioning, excessive capital spending, and valuation expansion. Drawing on historical technology cycles from railroads to the internet, he outlines why the biggest long-term winners often aren’t the builders, but the early adopters who use new technology to gain efficiency and market share.
We also dive into enterprise adoption rates, proof-of-ROI versus hype-driven AI mentions on earnings calls, and how to distinguish companies generating measurable productivity gains from those simply telling the story.
In this episode:
– Why the AI cycle may be shifting from buildout to adoption
– How only about 10 percent of firms are currently using AI in production
– The valuation risk embedded in infrastructure-heavy portfolios
– Why early adopters may outperform the AI builders
– How advisors can rethink AI exposure without abandoning the theme
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#AI #StockMarket #SP500 #NVDA #TechStocks #Tesla

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Rotation vs Concentration: Michael Germano on Cyclicals, Commodities, and the AI Risk Trade Feb 23, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Michael Germano, Founder and Wealth Manager at Key Sage Wealth, to discuss whether markets are entering a major rotation after years of mega-cap tech dominance.

From signs of mean reversion and passive-driven distortions to the case for a commodity supercycle and a weakening U.S. dollar, Germano explains why investors may want to rethink concentration risk and reassess exposure to AI-driven valuations.

In this episode:
– Why mega-cap tech may be “long in the tooth”
– How passive flows have created market inefficiencies
– The case for a structural commodity supercycle
– What a weaker dollar means for portfolios
– How wealthy investors compound capital using lending strategies

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#MarketRotation #Commodities #AI #AssetAllocation #WealthManagement

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Hype vs Deployment: Derek Yan on Humanoid Robotics, KOID ETF, and the Global AI Arms Race Feb 18, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Derek Yan, Senior Investment Strategist at KraneShares, to discuss whether humanoid robotics is a real commercialization story or just the next overhyped thematic trade.
From factory deployment by Tesla, BMW, and Amazon to China’s aggressive industrial push, Yan explains why embodied AI may represent the next structural shift in automation — and how the KraneShares Global Humanoid and Embodied Intelligence ETF $KOID captures the full ecosystem beyond mega-cap names like Nvidia and Tesla.
In this episode:
– Why humanoid robotics is already entering commercialization
– How equal weighting avoids mega-cap concentration
– What Morgan Stanley’s trillion-dollar projections really mean
– Why China exposure is a feature, not a bug
– The key milestones that signal mass deployment is coming
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#HumanoidRobotics #EmbodiedAI #ArtificialIntelligence #ThematicInvesting #EmergingTech #ETF

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Playing Offense With Wealth: Grant Cardone on Bitcoin, Real Estate, and Conviction Feb 17, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Grant Cardone for a wide-ranging and unusually candid conversation on Bitcoin, real estate, and what it really means to invest with conviction.
Grant is blunt about one thing most people never admit: even after buying Bitcoin for years, he doesn’t pretend certainty. He openly talks about the discomfort of drawdowns, the difference between conviction and having a low cost basis, and why buying through volatility matters more than sounding confident online. Rather than selling a perfect narrative, he’s honest about doubt, risk, and why not investing at all is the bigger danger.
From Bitcoin as a technology of money to real estate as a long-term cash-flow engine, Grant explains how wealthy investors think about scale, units, and holding assets through cycles instead of trading headlines.
In this episode:
– Why Grant says saving money destroys wealth
– How he thinks about Bitcoin without pretending certainty
– The difference between conviction and a cheap entry price
– Why wealthy investors focus on units, not price
– How Bitcoin and real estate play different roles in long-term wealth
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#GrantCardone #Bitcoin #WealthBuilding #InvestingMindset #FinancialFreedom #StockMarket
#RealEstate #Crypto

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Markets, Rates & ETF Innovation | A Conversation with GraniteShares Feb 17, 2026

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3 Rate Cuts, Small Caps Surge & 9% Income? | Jay Hatfield's 2025 Market Outlook Feb 17, 2026

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Trust Is Gone: Ted Oakley on Inflation, Fed Failure, and Why Energy Looks Undervalued Feb 11, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Ted Oakley, Founder of Oxbow Advisors, to break down why inflation remains sticky, why investors should be skeptical of Federal Reserve guidance, and where real value may be emerging beneath the surface of today’s market.
With more than four decades of experience advising high-net-worth investors, Ted explains why mega-cap stocks now represent concentration risk, why energy is one of the cheapest areas in the market, and how separating base capital from investment capital helps investors survive volatile cycles.
In this episode:
– Why Ted says the Fed is consistently late and unreliable
– What the latest CPI and PPI data reveal about persistent inflation
– Why mega-cap stocks may carry more risk than reward
– How energy offers income and value in an uncertain macro backdrop
– Why separating base capital from risk capital matters in downturns
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#Inflation #FederalReserve #EnergyStocks #MarketRisk #IncomeInvesting #StockMarket #Macro #PortfolioStrategy #Investing

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Leverage Without Speculation: David Dziekanski on Return Stacking, Income ETFs, and Portfolio Risk Feb 11, 2026

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This video is sponsored by Quantify Funds and contains discussion of exchange-traded funds sponsored by Quantify Funds. Quantify Funds paid the creator a flat fee for this endorsement and unscripted interview. This compensation gives the creator an incentive to recommend Quantify Funds, resulting in a material conflict of interest. Quantify Funds did not produce, review, approve, or redistribute this content and is not responsible for the opinions or statements expressed by the content creator. The creator is not a client or investor of Quantify Funds. Any views expressed are those of the creator and do not necessarily reflect the views of Quantify Funds.
This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Investors should consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with David Dziekanski, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Quantify Funds, to explain how return stacking reframes leverage from a short-term trading tool into something investors can actually buy and hold.
From combining Bitcoin and gold to stacking income strategies on top of equities, Dziekanski breaks down how diversification, embedded rebalancing, and structural design can deliver income and exposure without relying on extreme yield or constant investor intervention.
In this episode:
– Why leverage is dangerous without diversification
– How return stacking embeds rebalancing inside the ETF
– Why ultra-high yield ETFs often destroy total returns
– How income strategies can replace parts of fixed income
– Where these products fit in modern portfolio construction
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#ETFInvesting #PortfolioConstruction #RiskManagement #Leverage #Bitcoin #Gold #StockMarket

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Commodities Are Back: John Love on Energy Shocks, Precious Metals, and the New Risk Premium Feb 11, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with John Love, President and CEO of USCF, to break down why commodities are re-emerging as a critical part of portfolios as markets face inflation uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and supply fragility.

From a historic spike in natural gas driven by extreme weather to renewed risk premiums in oil, gold, and silver, John explains how commodity markets are being reshaped by geopolitics, tariffs, and structural supply dynamics and why broad exposure alone may not be enough.

In this episode:
– Why natural gas markets proved more fragile than expected
– How weather shocks and infrastructure strain drive outsized moves
– Why oil continues to carry an elevated geopolitical risk premium
– What’s fueling record highs in gold and explosive moves in silver
– How investors can think about targeted commodity exposure versus broad indexes

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

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