The Pain Trade Podcast

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**The Pain Trade Podcast**

The Pain Trade Podcast — what it costs, and what it pays.

In markets, the pain trade is the position that hurts to hold, and pays because it hurts. Every field has one: the last rep, the lean years, the comeback nobody expected.

Weekly in-studio conversations with people who overcame what should have broken them — in business, in markets, in health, in life.

Hosted by Michael A. Gayed, CFA — active portfolio manager, five-time Dow Award winner, founder of Lead-Lag Media, and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report.

Health, fitness, finance, entrepreneurship, and the struggle that connects them. New episodes weekly.

Latest Episodes:

He Beat Stage 3 Cancer — Then Fought in the Ring | Aram Babikian Mar 29, 2026

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The Great Unwind: Capital Cycles, Concentration Risk, and What Comes Next Mar 28, 2026

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Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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The Hidden Asset Class Beating Stocks? Carbon Credits Explained Mar 23, 2026

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Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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We Interviewed a $13,500 Humanoid Robot About Its Own ETF | KOID with Joe Dube, KraneShares Mar 17, 2026

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Oil Could Hit $150: John Love on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis, Iran War & Energy Shocks Mar 14, 2026

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Oil just hit $100 for the first time since 2022. Could it go to $150?

John Love of USCF Investments joins Michael A. Gayed, CFA on Lead-Lag Live at Future Proof Miami to break down the biggest oil shock since 1973. With 20% of the world's oil supply at risk through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran vowing to keep the waterway closed, and crude spiking 36% in six days — this is the most consequential energy crisis in decades.

In this episode, John explains:

Why this oil shock is more dangerous than the 1973 Arab oil embargo
How 6% of global supply has already been shut in — and 20% is at risk
The Iran war scenario: drone warfare, small boat threats, and the new Ayatollah
What happens to oil prices if Trump calls off the war vs. prolonged conflict
Strategic petroleum reserves: why a coordinated G7 release may not be enough
China-Taiwan risk: why China quietly built up reserves over the past year
The Iraq War playbook: could oil see a 33% single-day drop on resolution?
Where to invest in commodities through USCF Investments

This interview was recorded live at Future Proof Miami on March 10, 2026, as oil prices surged past $100/barrel amid the escalating Iran conflict.

Links & Resources:

USCF Investments: uscfinvestments.com
Lead-Lag Media: leadlagmedia.com
The Lead-Lag Report: theleadlag.report
Subscribe: theleadlag.report/subscribe

DISCLAIMER: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.

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Oil Could Hit 150 - John Love on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Mar 14, 2026

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John Love of USCF Investments joins Lead-Lag Live to discuss oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

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Europe’s Rebirth: Herve Van Caloen on Germany’s Military & Tech Shift Mar 10, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Hervé Van Caloen, President of Mercator Investment Management, to discuss why Europe’s long-standing political and economic models are breaking down — and why that might be exactly what the continent needs for a revival.
From Germany’s historic decision to become Europe’s largest military power by 2029 to the shift toward a “two-tier” European Union, Van Caloen explains how a new reality of realism is replacing years of complacency.
We also explore the investment opportunities emerging from this shift, looking beyond traditional sectors to uncover hidden opportunities in European defense, semiconductor equipment, and biotech.
In this episode:
• The End of Complacency – Why the invasion of Ukraine shattered the old French-German leadership model.
• Germany’s Military Pivot – How massive defense spending is fueling a revival in German technology and cybersecurity.
• The Two-Tier Europe – Chancellor Merz’s vision for a streamlined, decision-oriented European Union.
• Investment Frontiers – Why defense leaders like Rheinmetall, Thales, and BAE, along with semiconductor giant ASML, are key players.
• Cutting the Red Tape – The urgent need for Europe to return to its 1992 free-market roots and reduce overregulation.
Previous Episode: https://youtu.be/hN2qCZv9irY
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#Investing #Europe #Geopolitics #DefenseStocks #Semiconductors #Germany #EuropeanUnion #MarketAnalysis #LeadLagLive #ASML #Biotech #Economy

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Dollar Decline vs Market Concentration: Henry Greene on Emerging Markets Tech & the Next AI Winners Mar 04, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Henry Greene, Investment Strategist at KraneShares, to discuss how a weakening U.S. dollar and global AI capital spending could reshape leadership in technology markets.
From Taiwan and South Korea’s semiconductor dominance to China’s growing AI innovation ecosystem, Greene explains why emerging markets technology may offer exposure to the same growth themes investors love in the U.S. — but with lower multiples and broader diversification.
In this episode:
– Why dollar weakness is a tailwind for emerging markets
– How Taiwan and Korea benefit from AI CapEx
– China’s role in large language model innovation
– The case for diversifying beyond top-heavy US tech
– How KEMQ captures emerging markets technology exposure
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#EmergingMarkets #AIInvesting #Semiconductors #USdollar #GlobalMarkets

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Embodied AI in Action: Derek Yan on Humanoid Robotics, KOID ETF & the Physical AI Shift Mar 03, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Derek Yan, Senior Investment Strategist at KraneShares, to explore why humanoid robotics is moving from research labs into real-world deployment — and what that means for investors.
From embodied AI and general-purpose robotics to global supply chain dynamics between the U.S. and China, Yan explains why the KraneShares Global Humanoid and Embodied Intelligence ETF (KOID) focuses on the full ecosystem — not just headline mega-cap names — and even brings KOID, a working humanoid robot, into the interview to demonstrate the theme in real time.
In this episode:
– What “embodied AI” actually means
– Why humanoids are reaching an inflection point now
– How labor shortages are accelerating adoption
– Why the “body” of robotics may hold the most value
– How KOID captures the entire humanoid value chain
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#HumanoidRobotics #EmbodiedAI #ArtificialIntelligence
#FutureOfWork #ThematicInvesting

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The AI Trade Is Global: Derek Yan on Dollar Weakness, EM Tech, and Hidden Concentration Risk Mar 03, 2026

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Derek Yan, Senior Investment Strategist at KraneShares, to explore how the next phase of the AI boom may be driven by emerging market technology companies rather than US mega caps alone.
With nearly 40 percent of the S&P 500 concentrated in just ten names, Derek explains why investors may be underexposed to critical parts of the global AI supply chain, including semiconductor manufacturing, memory production, and materials essential to infrastructure buildout.
We also discuss how a weakening US dollar has historically acted as a powerful tailwind for emerging market equities and why improving fundamentals, lower valuations, and AI-linked demand could position EM technology for a multi-year cycle of outperformance.
In this episode:
– Why S&P 500 concentration is near decade highs
– How emerging markets drive AI manufacturing
– Why memory chips are a bottleneck in AI growth
– How a weaker dollar benefits EM equities
– Where advisors may be missing diversification
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#ArtificialIntelligence #EmergingMarkets #Semiconductors
#StockMarket #SP500 #KEMQ

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