The Pain Trade Podcast

Latest Episodes:

The George Costanza Trade? Options Experts Break Down Smarter Trading Strategies | OptionsAnimal Webinar Dec 04, 2025

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Join Michael A. Gayed, CFA, and the OptionsANIMAL team for a conversation about options trading, risk management, and the famous “George Costanza Trade.”

In this webinar, they chat about:

What the “Costanza approach” really means in trading
How professional traders manage risk and avoid emotional decisions
High-probability setups explained in simple terms
Options strategies that work in volatile markets
Actionable tips you can start applying immediately

Whether you're looking for CE credits, want to improve your trading discipline, or simply want to learn new frameworks from top options educators, this conversation is packed with value.

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise

#OptionsTrading #OptionsAnimal #LeadLagLive #Investing #Finance

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Michael Burry’s Warning, AI Math Reality, and the Hollowing Out of “Core” Dec 03, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, to break down Michael Burry’s warnings about depreciation manipulation, inflated AI earnings, and the concentration risk dominating today’s market.

From the speed of chip innovation to the widening gap between revenue and AI CapEx, Cogswell explains why valuations at the top of the S&P 500 may be far more stretched than investors realize — and why diversified, valuation-discipline strategies could be the antidote to extreme concentration.

In this episode:
– Why extending depreciation cycles may be inflating mega-cap earnings
– How today’s top 10 S&P names are valued above the peak of the tech bubble
– What investors misunderstand about investing in AI
– Why Running Oak has reduced tech exposure despite an AI revolution
– How passive flows have hollowed out the core of the U.S. equity market

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#RunningOak #Markets #TechValuations #AIBubble #PassiveInvesting #RiskManagement #Equities #Investing

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Regime Shift Ahead: Alex Shahidi on Inflation Risk, True Diversification, and Building Resilient Portfolios Dec 03, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Alex Shahidi, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Evoke Advisors, to unpack the structural forces reshaping markets — from persistent inflation to weakening growth, rising deficits, and the return of macro volatility.

From the limitations of the traditional 60-40 portfolio to the misunderstood mechanics behind risk parity, Shahidi explains how investors can build portfolios that survive multiple economic regimes without relying on forecasts or market timing.

In this episode:
– Why inflation volatility poses the biggest risk to portfolios today
– How the past decade created dangerous concentration in equities
– Why most investors misunderstand what true diversification means
– How risk parity protects against extreme macro outcomes
– How RPAR expresses a balanced, multi-regime investment framework

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#RiskParity #Diversification #Inflation #RPAR #Markets #EvokeAdvisors #PortfolioConstruction #MacroInvesting

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Greed to Fear: Jay Hatfield on Post-Earnings Volatility, Tech Rotation, and the Case for Income Dec 03, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, to break down what Nvidia’s blockbuster quarter means for mega-cap tech, why markets fade after earnings season, and the implications for dividend stocks, preferreds, and small caps as rate expectations shift.

From valuation pressure in momentum names to tightening money supply and the path of Fed policy, Hatfield explains where he sees opportunity as volatility resets — and why income strategies may be entering their strongest stretch of the cycle.

In this episode:
– Why strong tech earnings often lead to short-term market weakness
– How Bitcoin and leveraged crypto products spill over into tech volatility
– Why dividend-heavy large caps offer resilience in rotation periods
– How preferreds and corporate bonds can outperform into 2026
– The setup for small-cap value once Fed cuts begin

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

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Europe & Japan Are Back: Aram Babikian on HDEF, DBEF & the 2026 International Bull Case Dec 03, 2025

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International markets are leading and according to DWS’s Aram Babikian, we’re still in the early innings. In part 1 of this Lead-Lag Deep Dive Series, Melanie Schaeffer sits down with Aram to explore why Europe and Japan are gaining momentum, what’s structurally different this time, and how two key XTrackers ETFs, HDEF and DBEF, are positioned for 2025–2026.
They break down:
- Why Europe, especially Germany, is entering a new era of investment
- Japan’s wage growth, inflation stabilization & corporate reforms
- How DBEF helps reduce currency-driven volatility
- Why advisors are using a 50/50 split between HDEF & DBEF
- The global policy shifts creating long-term opportunity
- What investors should expect in 2025, 2026 and beyond

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Unlimited Portable Energy with COR #WorksportLtd Nov 26, 2025

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Humanoid Robots Are Coming: Investing in the KOID Opportunity Nov 25, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, Michael Gayed sits down with Cole Wenner from KraneShares to break down the rise of humanoid robots and why the theme is moving from cool demos to real-world deployment. Cole explains embodied intelligence, the labor and aging-population pressures driving demand, and where humanoids are likely to show up first — warehouses, factories, hospitals, and eventually the home.
They walk through the three parts of the KOID approach: the “brain” (AI and semiconductors), the “body” (motors, sensors, actuators, materials), and the integrators building full robots. Cole also highlights why many of the most investable opportunities sit inside the global components supply chain, where costs are falling fast across LiDAR, motors, and compute.
The conversation also covers timelines, pilot programs, cost bottlenecks, and how US strength in AI and China’s manufacturing advantage could speed adoption.
In this episode:
• Why humanoids are becoming practical now
• First real-world use cases
• The KOID framework: brain, body, integrators
• Component companies driving early value
• What needs to improve for mass adoption
Lead-Lag Live brings you conversations with the people shaping global markets. Follow the show and comment with the first task you’d want a humanoid to handle.
#KOID #Robotics #HumanoidRobots #AI #Automation #KraneShares #Investing #TechTrends

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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China Q3 Update & the KLIP Covered Call Strategy with Henry Greene From KraneShares Nov 25, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, Michael Gayed talks with Henry Greene from KraneShares about how recent changes in US–China trade incentives are improving the outlook for China’s tech sector and why it matters for investors.
They discuss the rise of AI in China — including DeepSeek and Alibaba’s Qwen models — and how letting companies train AI on their own data could boost cloud adoption. Henry also explains China’s push into robotics and how it fits alongside US leadership in chips and software.
To bring it back to portfolios, Henry breaks down why KWEB tends to react strongly to policy headlines, how KLIP uses that volatility to generate monthly income, and simple ways to combine the two depending on your goals.
In this episode:
• What’s changing in US–China trade
• China’s growing AI ecosystem
• Why enterprise fine-tuning matters
• How robotics and chips fit into the story
• How KWEB behaves during policy shifts
• How KLIP turns volatility into income
Lead-Lag Live brings you real conversations with the people shaping global markets. Subscribe for more insights that cut through the noise.
#KWEB #KLIP #ChinaTech #AIinChina #EmergingMarkets #Investing #KraneShares #MarketInsights

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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The Clean Power Shift: Steven Rossi on Solis, COR, and Why Worksport Is Building the Future of Portable Energy Nov 25, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Steven Rossi, Founder and CEO of Worksport, to break down the company’s clean-energy transformation — including the long-awaited launch of the COR portable power system and the SOLIS solar tonneau cover.

Steven explains how COR’s modular batteries, onboard inverter system, and solar integration are designed to create a new category in portable power — one that serves contractors, overlanders, EV owners, and emergency-preparedness users with a scalable nano-grid you can take anywhere. He also shares Worksport’s roadmap for growth, manufacturing strategy, and how SOLIS + COR work together as a complete energy ecosystem.

In this episode:
– How the COR power system works — and why it’s built to scale
– Why modular batteries and a centralized hub change the game for portability
– How SOLIS integrates with COR to create a mobile solar nano-grid
– Why Worksport is betting on clean, portable energy as its core business
– The growth roadmap ahead as the company pushes into 2025 and beyond

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#Worksport #COR #SOLIS #CleanEnergy #PortablePower #EVTrucks #RenewableEnergy

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Fantasy vs Fundamentals: Emerging Markets, Global Tech, & the Return of EM Leadership Nov 20, 2025

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In this episode of Lead Lag Live, I sit down with Brendan Ahern, Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares, to break down the renewed momentum behind emerging markets and the forces driving performance across global tech and e commerce.
From valuation gaps and dollar depreciation to sector leadership shifts, Ahern shares how EM growth factors and specifically the KEMQ ETF are positioned to benefit from a structural rebalancing away from overstretched US valuations.
In this episode:
– Why emerging markets are regaining leadership after a decade of underperformance
– How tech and e commerce have reshaped the EM index composition
– The valuation divergence between US tech and EM tech
– Why ADR volatility distorts fundamentals and why local shares matter
– How investors should size EM exposure and position KEMQ in a portfolio
Lead Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#LeadLagLive #EmergingMarkets #KraneShares #GlobalTech #KEMQ

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