The Pain Trade Podcast

Latest Episodes:

The Fed Got It Right (for the Wrong Reasons): Jay Hatfield on Rate Cuts, AI, and the Risk of a Boom Oct 29, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, to discuss why he believes the Fed’s latest dovish pivot was inevitable — and what it means for investors heading into 2025.

From housing to money supply and the AI-driven growth cycle, Hatfield breaks down the data points that actually matter — and why he sees zero risk of recession, but a real chance of an economic boom.

In this episode:
– Why the Fed’s “weak labor market” narrative hides a deeper policy flaw
– How housing and money supply remain the only leading indicators that count
– Why the risk of a boom is higher than the risk of a bust
– How AI momentum could supercharge growth in 2025
– Where Jay’s 7,700 S&P target comes from — and why it’s not irrational

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #JayHatfield #Fed #InterestRates #HousingMarket #AI #Economy #Investing #Markets

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Fantasy vs Fundamentals: Seth Cogswell on Bubbles, Passive Flows, and What Breaks Next Oct 28, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, to unpack the strange market dynamic where low-quality, high-debt companies are outperforming — and why that may be setting up one of the biggest long-term buying opportunities in years.

From zombie stocks to the passive investing paradox, Seth breaks down why common-sense investing has vanished from today’s markets — and how his “buy low, sell high” discipline at Running Oak is bringing it back.

In this episode:
– Why profitable, high-quality companies are lagging speculative names
– What the “buying a Lexus for the price of a Camry” moment means for investors
– How passive flows have hollowed out the core of the market
– Why most portfolios no longer follow the buy-low, sell-high principle
– The mission behind Seth’s new educational series Not So Passively Aggressive

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Webinar: Exploring the Cambria US Equal Weight ETF (USEW): Diversifying Beyond Market Cap Oct 22, 2025

Show notes

Tired of choosing between concentration risk and a painful tax bill? Michael sits down with Med Faber from Cambria Investment Management. We break down a smarter option: using a 351 ETF exchange to convert appreciated, concentrated stock positions into a diversified ETF without triggering taxes. Think of it like a 1031 for public equities—contribute eligible positions at launch, receive ETF shares in return, and let the portfolio rebalance inside the tax-efficient ETF wrapper.
We walk through:

The exact rules that matter

Why your largest position must be under 25% and your top five under 50%

Which assets qualify, and why contributions must happen at the seed stage.

You’ll hear real examples of prior 351 launches, learn about the upcoming U.S. equal weight fund aimed at breaking the market-cap link, and get a clear timeline: indicate interest, submit holdings, pause trading, transfer positions, and receive ETF shares on day one. We also explain the powerful benefit of multiple cost-basis lots embedded in the ETF, which can make future tax management far more flexible.
Along the way, we widen the lens to the current market: elevated U.S. valuations, heavy index concentration in the same handful of megacaps, and a stealth rotation in gold and non-U.S. value strategies. If you’ve been meaning to diversify but taxes keep you stuck, this is the actionable path. Advisors will find a field guide for client conversations—simple analogies that land, common custodian workflows, and prospecting angles for executives, VC distributions, and direct indexing portfolios.

#LeadLagLive #Cambria #USEW #IncomeInvesting #Markets #Investing

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Income Without Limits: Jonathan Shelon on KLIP, Covered Calls, and Monthly Payouts That Work Oct 21, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Jonathan Shelon, Chief Operating Officer at KraneShares, to unpack how the firm’s KLIP ETF delivers monthly income and international diversification — without giving up growth.

With covered call strategies back in focus, Jonathan explains why China’s tech sector provides more volatility (and therefore more income potential) than traditional U.S. covered call ETFs, and how advisors are blending KLIP with core equity or income portfolios.

In this episode:
– Why KLIP’s monthly distributions stand out from U.S. covered call ETFs
– How volatility can be a benefit, not a risk, for income investors
– The mechanics behind generating 2% monthly payouts
– How KLIP complements both equity and fixed-income allocations
– Why KraneShares sees long-term growth in combining KWEB and KLIP

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #KraneShares #KLIP #IncomeInvesting #Markets #Investing

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The $1,000 Revolution: Sam Nofzinger on Direct Indexing, Taxes, and the Future of Investing Oct 20, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Sam Nofsinger, General Manager of Brokerage at Public, to discuss how the company’s new direct indexing feature is bringing institutional investing tools to everyday investors.

For the first time, investors can build their own index, own every underlying stock, and optimize for taxes with just $1,000 minimum. Sam explains how fractional shares, automation, and tax-loss harvesting are transforming what used to be a high-net-worth strategy into something anyone can use.

In this episode:
– What direct indexing is and how it differs from ETFs and mutual funds
– Why customization and tax-loss harvesting matter for long-term returns
– How Public’s technology makes personalized portfolios accessible to everyone
– How fractional shares broke down the biggest barriers to entry
– Why the future of investing is personal, automated, and tax-efficient

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #Public #DirectIndexing #Investing #WealthManagement

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Is the Fed about to start cutting rates — and what does that mean for your portfolio? Oct 17, 2025

Show notes

In this Lead Lag Live webinar, Michael Gayed sits down with Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, to break down the current macro landscape, why inflation fears may be overblown, and where the biggest investment opportunities lie as we enter a new market phase.
Topics Covered:
Why small caps could surge as rate cuts begin
The truth about inflation, the BLS data lag, and money supply
Outlook for the bond market, preferreds, and high-yield credit
How active management can outperform in a cutting cycle
Why “bubbles” might actually be good for investors
Subscribe for more expert market insights and live webinars
#FedCuts #Inflation #StockMarket #Investing #JayHatfield #LeadLagLive #InterestRates #Finance #Economy #SmallCaps #Bonds #PreferredStocks

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Energy, Income, and AI: Jay Hatfield on the Fed, Housing, and Where the Real Growth Is Now Oct 16, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, to cut through the noise on the Fed, energy markets, and how investors can prepare for the next phase of the cycle.

From the AI-driven power boom to small-cap rotation and bond opportunities, Jay shares why the Fed’s reliance on lagging data could be investors’ biggest advantage — and where long-term value is hiding in plain sight.

In this episode:
– Why the AI build-out could make natural gas the next big winner
– How money supply leads inflation, interest rates, and Fed policy
– The “Hatfield Rule” for predicting recessions through housing data
– Where small-cap and income investors should be allocating now
– Why rotation away from mega-cap tech is already starting to unfold

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #InfrastructureCapital #Fed #InterestRates #NaturalGas #Energy #Markets #Investing

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Beyond Buy and Hold: Si Katara on Zero-Day Options, Income Innovation & the Future of ETFs Oct 15, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Si Katara, Founder and CEO of Tap Alpha, to explore how zero-day options are reshaping income investing for everyday investors.

From engineering background to ETF innovation, Katara shares how Tap Alpha’s TSPY ETF delivers daily option overlays on the S&P 500 — capturing upside while generating consistent, tax-efficient income in any market environment.

In this episode:
– Why traditional income products no longer work for investors today
– How zero-day options can mitigate risk and boost returns
– The math behind daily vs. monthly covered call strategies
– Why ETFs solve tax inefficiencies in options-based income
– How Tap Alpha is bridging Wall Street strategies for Main Street investors

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#LeadLagLive #TapAlpha #ETFs #OptionsInvesting #ZeroDTE #Markets

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Fragile Foundations: Ross Atefi on AI Euphoria, Market Concentration & the $500K Tax Trap Oct 15, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Ross Atefi, Founder and Wealth Advisor at Yatra Wealth Design, to break down why he believes the market is more fragile than headlines suggest.

From AI mania to the quiet collapse in housing and jobs data, Ross explains how extreme concentration and stretched valuations have set up an environment that echoes the late ’90s bubble — and what investors need to watch next.

In this episode:
– Why the S&P 500’s “diversification” is a dangerous illusion
– How AI spending is draining the cash that used to reward shareholders
– The warning signals in housing and employment data
– Why money supply matters more than Fed rhetoric when it comes to inflation
– The $500K–$600K tax trap created by the “one big, beautiful bill” and how to avoid it

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #Markets #Investing #AI #TaxPlanning #HousingMarket #JobsData

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Beyond the Hype: Derek Yan on the AI Build-Out, Private Access, and Where the Real Opportunity Lies Oct 15, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Derek Yan, CFA and Senior Investment Strategist at KraneShares, to cut through the noise surrounding the AI “bubble” narrative and unpack where the true opportunity still lies.

From infrastructure shortages and the rise of reasoning models to the challenge of accessing private AI leaders, Derek shares why the current cycle is still in its infancy and how investors can capture the next phase of growth.

In this episode:
– Why AI demand is outpacing computing capacity worldwide
– How reasoning models are reshaping the AI investment landscape
– Why the Magnificent 7 alone won’t capture the AI revolution
– The importance of balancing infrastructure vs application exposure
– How A-GIX connects investors to both public and private AI leaders

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#LeadLagLive #KraneShares #AI #Markets #TechStocks #AGIX

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