The Pain Trade Podcast

Latest Episodes:

China’s Turning Point: Brendan Ahern on AI, Cloud Growth, and the Global Rebalance Into KWEB Nov 20, 2025

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n this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Brendan Ahern, Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares, to break down the pivotal shift happening inside China’s equity markets. A Trump–Xi truce, policy stabilization, and a surge in cloud and AI revenues are driving fresh optimism into Chinese tech — and Brendan explains why global investors are quietly reallocating back into KWEB.
From improving CPI and government action on involution to cloud-driven AI monetization, semiconductor risks, and the new wave of international inflows, Brendan lays out the forces reshaping China’s market narrative after years of pessimism.
In this episode:
– Why China’s cloud and AI revenue growth is outpacing expectations
– How anti-involution policy is stabilizing competition and lifting margins
– Why global investors — especially Europe and Asia — are rotating back into China
– Where KWEB sees opportunity across online video, entertainment, and emerging tech
– Why semiconductor valuations demand caution despite the broader tech rebound
– How the Trump–Xi détente may open the door to further policy normalization
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#LeadLagLive #KWEB #KraneShares #ChinaTech #AI #EmergingMarkets #Investing #Markets

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The Perfect Storm: Si Katara on Daily Overlays, Volatility, and the Future of Income ETFs Nov 20, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down once again with Si Katara, Founder and CEO of TappAlpha, to dive deeper into how daily option overlays are redefining the balance between growth, income, and risk management.

Since our last conversation, markets have shifted fast. AI valuations have cooled, volatility has returned, and investors are rethinking how to generate income without sacrificing upside. Si shares how TappAlpha’s TSPY and TDAQ ETFs are thriving in this environment, giving advisors and investors precision, flexibility, and true control over their equity exposure.

In this episode:
– Why volatility-based income is replacing bond-based income as rates fall
– How daily options overlays outperform traditional 30-day strategies
– The “pilot course correction” analogy that defines TappAlpha’s edge
– What makes TSPY and TDAQ fundamentally different from other covered call ETFs
– How TappAlpha is scaling to new products, including light-levered and weekly-pay ETFs

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

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Leaving My Dream Job Nov 14, 2025

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AI Boom or Bubble? Jay Hatfield on What’s Next for Stocks, Small Caps & The Fed Nov 13, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, host Michael A. Gayed, CFA sits down with Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, to unpack the market’s next chapter. From AI valuations and small-cap opportunities to rate cuts and dividend ETFs, Jay breaks down where he’s seeing risk and reward as we head into 2025 and 2026.
Topics covered:
• AI and the “Magnificent 8” valuations
• The Fed’s next moves and rate outlook
• Why small caps and value may shine in 2026
• Dividend income ideas: ICAP, SCAP, PFFA
• Where investors are getting the narrative wrong
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#MarketOutlook #InvestingInsights #StockMarket2025 #EconomicOutlook #InterestRates #FedPolicy #leadlaglive #jayhatfield

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Falling Rates, Rising Uncertainty: Investors Chase Higher Yields Nov 10, 2025

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In this exclusive conversation, Michael Gayed, founder of The Lead-Lag Report, sits down with Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares, to discuss the booming demand for options-based income ETFs like YieldBoost — funds generating 50% to 150% annual yields through innovative option strategies.
They unpack:
- Why rates are headed lower (and what it means for investors)
- How YieldBoost ETFs work and generate high income
- The truth about NAV erosion and downside protection
- What a diversified income portfolio could look like in 2025
- How investors are rethinking “safe yield” in a new market era
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.
#YieldInvesting #OptionsIncome #ETFs #HighYield #Investing #Finance #LeadLagReport #GraniteShares
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Lift Up Your Future: Seth Cogswell on Starting Early, Discipline, and Building Wealth That Lasts Nov 10, 2025

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In this special Take Your Kid to Work Day edition of Lead-Lag Live, Grade 9 student Ezra Briski steps in as host to explore this year’s theme: Lift Up Your Future — how the choices we make today shape the opportunities we have tomorrow. Ezra sits down with Seth Cogswell, Founder and Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, to discuss why starting early with money and investing can change your entire life’s trajectory.

In this episode, Seth shares:
– Why compounding is like a superpower for people who start young
– The lesson: “Easy choices, hard life. Hard choices, easy life.”
– How to think of money as a tool, not something to chase
– Why discipline matters more than picking the perfect stock
– How to avoid “today’s impulse” stealing “tomorrow’s possibilities”
– Why reading and learning from others is the cheat code to growing faster
– The importance of minimizing distractions and building real-world confidence

This episode is about building habits, not hype.
It’s about learning to value your future self — and taking steps now that make life easier later.

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #SethCogswell #RunningOak #FinancialLiteracy #InvestingYoung #CompoundInterest #Discipline #LiftUpYourFuture #TakeYourKidToWorkDay

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Why the Fed Will Be Forced to Cut | Jay Hatfield’s 2025 Market Outlook Nov 07, 2025

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In this exclusive webinar hosted by Michael Gayed of Lead-Lag Media, Jay Hatfield from Infrastructure Capital shares his market outlook for 2025 — including why he believes the Fed will have to cut rates, why housing hasn’t crashed, and why the next market move could surprise to the upside.

Jay breaks down:

Why the Fed has caused nearly every post-WWII recession
How inflation is finally cooling (and why CPI is misleading)
The real reason the U.S. avoided a recession in 2024
His S&P 500 target of 7,000 for 2025
Bullish takes on housing, tech, small caps, and preferreds
Why regional banks and credit fears are overblown
His contrarian forecast for the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#Markets #Investing #FederalReserve #InterestRates #JayHatfield #MichaelGayed #InfrastructureCapital #StockMarketOutlook

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Fear and Fundamentals: Brad Barrie on Global Macro, Diversification, and the Market’s Next Big Test Nov 07, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Brad Barrie, Co-Founder, Managing Director, and Chief Investment Officer at Dynamic Wealth Group, to unpack how global-macro investing helps investors prepare for uncertainty — not predict it.

From his Halloween-candy analogy on diversification to the risks hiding behind record valuations, Brad explains why hope isn’t a strategy, why true diversification means non-correlation, and how the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund aims to thrive when others panic.

In this episode:
– Why diversification today often means being “badly diversified”
– How global macro can hedge against high valuations and volatility
– Why the Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund (DYMAX) is built for flexibility
– How technicals and fundamentals work together in a macro framework
– Why investors need multiple drivers of return, not just hope

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise

#LeadLagLive #DynamicWealthGroup #GlobalMacro #Investing #Diversification #Markets #DYMAX

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Weekly Paychecks from Tesla? Will Rhind on High-Yield ETFs and the Next Evolution in Income Nov 06, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Will Rhind, Founder and CEO of GraniteShares, to discuss how the firm’s YieldBoost lineup is rewriting the rules of income investing.

From Tesla to Coinbase, GraniteShares has built a new category of weekly-paying ETFs that deliver institutional-style yield strategies to everyday investors — no options experience required. Will explains how the structure works, why investor demand has exploded, and what’s next for the YieldBoost lineup.

In this episode:
– How GraniteShares’ YieldBoost ETFs deliver weekly income
– Why Tesla’s YieldBoost ETF (TSYY) has become a $400M success
– The mechanics behind 150% annualized distribution yields
– Why investors want weekly income instead of monthly payouts
– How GraniteShares is democratizing institutional yield strategies

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #GraniteShares #YieldBoost #IncomeInvesting #ETFs #Tesla #Markets

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Faith vs Frenzy: Fr. Emmanuel Lemelson on Gold Mania, AI Hype, and the Morality of Markets Nov 04, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Father Emmanuel Lemelson, activist investor and Orthodox priest, to discuss the intersection of faith, finance, and speculation in an era of market excess.

From calling tops in gold and silver to exposing fraud on Wall Street, Fr. Emmanuel argues that modern markets have become spiritually and ethically unmoored — a “Wild West” driven by greed, memes, and misplaced faith in AI. He shares his candid views on what true stewardship means, why hoarding gold is spiritually toxic, and why investors need humility more than hype.

In this episode:
– Why “stacking” gold is spiritual hoarding, not investing
– How AI mania mirrors the dot-com bubble of the ’90s
– The moral hazard of speculation and market idolatry
– Where Fr. Emmanuel still finds real value in equities like Adobe and Flower Foods
– Why faith and finance don’t have to be at odds

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.

#LeadLagLive #FrEmmanuelLemelson #FaithAndFinance #Markets #Investing #Gold #AI #WallStreet #Economy

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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