The FarrCast : Wealth Strategies

Latest Episodes:

The State of the State of the Union Feb 07, 2019

Show notes

The FarrCast is back and thawed out after a week in deep freeze! Michael welcomes Jim Iuorio to talk on the markets: we’ve seen a 16% rise since the Christmas Eve lows. Jim says there has been a lot of good news and we may well drift higher, but there is a China sized (& shaped) roadblock up ahead. He sees positives ahead for 2019 and tells us where he sees potholes along the way. Dan Mahaffee joins us for an expert’s view on the State of the Union. The President painted with a broad brush, as SotU speeches tend to do, and began to set outlines of the 2020 campaign. Plus, Dan gives his thoughts on another shutdown. There are whispers on the Hill that the White House is considering forcing another to blame the Democrats and “clean the slate” for five week shutdown that just ended. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Lester Munson, who brings over a quarter century of experience in DC and insight into the state of play. He says Trump needs to think about messaging for the suburbs if he is to sustain his political life. Michael and Les move on to talk about the nomination of David Malpass as President of the World Bank. Though Malpass has been a noted World Bank critic, Les says that ultimately his appointment could be a great boon for the World Bank. It's The Farrcast—your insight into Wall Street, Washington, and The World.

Well It Feels Like a Millennia Jan 23, 2019

Show notes

On tonight's FarrCast, Michael welcomes back Stephanie Link. She is one of the leading minds, and leading voices on Wall Street and she share her thoughts on how market volatility can be an opportunity for the long term investor. The markets turned down today, apparently because of the realization that global growth is slowing -- but that's old news if you've been listening to the FarrCast. Listen for what Michael and Stephanie see coming next. The shutdown continues and Dan Mahaffee gives us the lay of the land in DC. The President's support is faltering, and as 800,000 Federal workers approach the second payday without a check, the pain is increasing. Each side is dug in their trenches, but they are being pushed out to begin the work towards a compromise. In the third segment, Michael talks China with one of the leading experts on Chinese economy, politics and culture in Washington -- the FarrCast's very own Dan Mahaffee! Last week it seemed that everything was coming together for a trade deal and today it all seemed to come apart. In the More Mahaffee segment Dan walks us through the complex transition that China is facing: not just economically but socially. Dan predicts we will see progress on trade, and some agreement, but resolution may take decades.

Peering into the Corner of the Attic Jan 16, 2019

Show notes

It's a snowy FarrCast! 2019 is off to a good start in the markets -- there's plenty to make up from the dive at the end of 2018. Michael reviews the markets as they've found their footing. Things aren't great -- but they aren't bad. We welcome Mark Hamrick, veteran economic journalist, former head of the National Press Club and currently chief economist at Bankrate.com. Michael and Mark have a free ranging conversation on Brexit, the market outlook, and a dive into a new consumer survey from Bankrate. Seventy percent of the economy is driven by the consumer, and what the consumer thinks and feels is an important barometer of where the economy is going. In our second segment, Dan Mahaffee joins to talk DC and the World. He discusses the pendulum swings in politics, and the decline of the middle ground -- and the concern that also can diminish the middle class. We move on the Mueller investigation; the turn the investigation has taken is more to counterintelligence. Dan outlines the trajectory of the climax of the investigation. Finally, the Brexit deal was rejected by British Parliament. Dan says Teresa May will survive the no-confidence vote, and that a second referendum is becoming more and more of a possibility.

Pulling Down the Wallpaper Jan 11, 2019

Show notes

It's a New Year and it's a new FarrCast! We start with Jim Iuorio from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. There are a ton of moving parts, Jim says, and he breaks down why the markets broke down in December, and what they need to see for the next leg up. Dan Mahaffee joins to tell us the state of play in Washington, DC. The holidays brought one domino fell after another. The impacts of the shutdown are beginning to be felt as TSA, USDA, and other acronyms are closed. The perfect is the enemy of the good, Dan reminds us, and he says that to expect a dramatic and symbolic solution, but maybe not substantive. Michael welcomes special guest Jon Najarian for our third segment. Markets hate uncertainty, but Jon reminds us that uncertainty can be good for investors because pockets of value can form. It's not all clear moving forward in 2019 -- but there are reasons to be optimistic. The FarrCast! Wall Street, Washington, and The World.

It's a special Year End FarrCast! Dec 31, 2018

Show notes

Every year, Michael picks his top ten. This year, there are bargains to be had after the markets have tumbled. What are the prospects in a market repricing environment? Farr, Miller & Washington is a "buy-to-hold" investment manager, which means we make each investment with the intent to hold the position for a period of 3-5 years. Nevertheless, in each of the past thirteen Decembers I have selected and invested personally in ten of the stocks we follow with the intention of holding for just one year. These are companies that I find especially attractive in light of their valuations or their potential to benefit from economic developments. I hold an equal dollar amount in each of the positions for the following year, and then I reinvest in the new list. This is my Top 10 for 2019, listed in no particular order. This year's Top Ten represent a nice combination of growth and defensiveness. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 industry sectors are represented, and their average long-term estimated growth rate (in EPS) is well in excess of the overall market. Also on average, these companies are much larger than the average S&P 500 company while carrying an average dividend yield of about 2%. Results have been good in some years and not as good in others. I will sell my 2018 names on Monday, December 31st and buy the following names that afternoon. The reader should not assume that an investment in the securities identified was or will be profitable. These are not recommendations to buy or sell securities. There is risk of losing principal. Past performance is no indication of future results. If you are interested in any of these names, please call us or your financial advisor to discuss.

Dovish Bubble Wrap Dec 18, 2018

Show notes

Three trading days until Christmas and Santa Claus and his rally are nowhere to be seen. We welcome Jim Iuorio from the CME to talk about the markets. It's an uncertain time, and Jim says the getting tomorrow's Fed meeting in the rear view mirror will help. On the FarrCast, we say "emotion is the foe of the long-term investor" and right now the focus is on Jerome Powell -- and he needs to show no emotion and calm the emotional beast of the markets down. It's not just Wall Street providing news this week, and Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about Washington, Beijing and places in between. Dan notes that the President's pressure on the Fed puts Jerome Powell in a difficult position -- even if the data supports a pause, it's important to demonstrate independence from political pressure. Moving on to China, Dan points out where China is willing to make concessions, and what their long view goals are. The China story isn't going away, and we'll be talking more in 2019. It's the last FarrCast of the year, and for our big finale Michael welcomes one of our greatest guest, Jack Bouroudjian, chief economist for UCX. Jack is a trader, an investor, and absolutely the expert's expert. Jack returns us to a theme from the beginning of the year -- repatriation. It's been propping up the dollar and suppressing inflation. Still, he agrees we will see the "dovish rate hike." Jack gives his thoughts what the themes that will govern what moves the markets in 2019. It's a FarrCast that you can't miss -- our guests don't just read the headlines, they look at what the next headlines will be.

Shutdown Light Dec 12, 2018

Show notes

Eventful. Well, that's one way to put it. Jim Iuorio joins us from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and gives us the technical take. It's not voodoo: the levels and patterns technicians watch are reliable predictors of the sentiments of market participants. Jim tells us what he watches to get a handle on what the collective psychological sentiment of the markets. What happened at The White House today? Really, what was that? Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the President and Congress joins us and his study really helps sort the political theater. Neither side is winning, and suddenly a government shutdown looks more probable. The only place it seems common ground might be found is spending (well borrowing) more money.

Will Xi or Won't Xi? Dec 05, 2018

Show notes

The market dropped 800! Don't panic -- listen to the FarrCast! Jim Iuorio joins us, and he's not worried about the yield curve, maybe a little about trade. The markets are behaving like markets do -- and sometimes they go down. Keep an eye on the long term: it was an awful day for sure, but relax and keep to your discipline. President Trump returned from Argentina and the G20 and said he'd made the biggest deal of his life. Yet the bond market didn't move. Dan Mahaffee joins us from Washington to parse what happened -- and what didn't happen. Dan is a China hand, having lived and studied there, and he gives some insight into the pressures that President Xi faces at home. Finally in our third segment, Michael gives tribute on the passing of the forty-first President. Michael reflects on his acquaintance with George H. W. Bush and the life and example of the President. President Bush believed in a kinder America and devoted his life to creating a better America. Thank you for service, Mr. President. Godspeed.

East German Swimmers & The Fed Nov 28, 2018

Show notes

We hope you had a great Thanksgiving! The FarrCast is back and the markets seem to be settling down. Michael welcomes Kenny Polcari who says the markets are waiting on geo-political events. The economy is sound and consumers just spent a record amount on Black Friday. Michael asks Kenny the question on everyone's mind: will there be a Santa Claus rally? Breaking news! Just before we went to air, Trump gave an interview to the Washington Post, and what an interview. Dan Mahaffee from the Center of the Presidency and Congress joins to talk about the President's comments on GM and the Fed. Remember what we've said on the FarrCast: the economy and the markets aren't the same thing. Lester Munson joins for our third segment. He says he's looking forward to season three of the Trump show -- great new characters and lots of fighting. The ratings should be great! Moving on the G20 summit, Les is looking for a lot of great tango metaphors from the summit, but not a lot more. President Xi is feeling pressure though, and Les says the Administration has done a good job of lowering expectations. Finally, Les says Trump's path to re-election in 2020 looks very rocky two years out.

We're Followed By All of the Finest Treasury Secretaries Nov 21, 2018

Show notes

Remember when interest rates spiked upwards? Well, the markets are still trying to find to stability. Kenny Polcari told us that we have to test the lows of October again and then the markets can begin to build again. Rates are rising, and the markets have to decide what the proper valuation is in the new environment. Kenny gives us a quick primer on the fragmentation of the markets, and how that exaggerates the volatility. Michael welcomes Matt Leffingwell to talk about DC post-midterms. It's been a while since we've heard from Matt, and he walks us through the chatter on the Hill. The tech industry is watching for privacy legislation, the financials are watching for new regulation, and everyone is looking at infrastructure. Leffingwell says we will see gridlock across most areas, but drug pricing may be a point of agreement. When the markets are confused, Mona Mahajan, US Investment Strategist from Allianz GI, has a voice that makes sense. Michael welcomes Mona on to peel back the layers. The US economy is strong, but will the momentum continue in the face of trade difficulties, rising rates, and slower global growth? Mona makes the case that we aren't heading into a recession, so the markets will likely find the technical bottom and move forward. To keep with Kenny Polcari's thoughts, you can subscribe to his daily note at: www.kennypolcari.com For Michael Farr's weekly Market Commentary, subscribe at www.farrmiller.com and click on "Market Commentary" To read Mona Mahajan's Outlook, go to: https://us.allianzgi.com/individual/our-firm/our-experts/our-experts-details/mona-mahajan