The FarrCast : Wealth Strategies

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What We Learned from TV Re-Runs Nov 14, 2018

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t's another wild week in the markets! Jim Iuorio joins Michael and reminds us -- you can lose money in the markets, and when we forget that the markets slap us in the face. You can't just shovel money into the market anymore, but have to have a plan. Jim has a plan, and shares some of the things he's looking for in the data as we come to the end of the year. Wild week in the markets? It's nothing compared to what is happening in Washington this week. Dan Mahaffee joins from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress to sort it out. The electorate is changing, but are the parties keeping up? Amidst the chaos, there is some good news: Secretary Mnuchin is working hard to lay groundwork for a Xi-Trump meeting at the end of the month. Dan is a China expert, and has deep insight into the long view the Chinese are taking. For our special guest, we welcome back Tom Heath from The Washington Post. Tom says he loves a good downturn -- and explains why. Tom has seen market downturns before, and if you have the stomach for them, they are a gift for the long term investor. It's a great new FarrCast! Listen in, have a laugh, and learn a little.

TINA Is in the ICU Nov 09, 2018

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It's the election FarrCast! Kenny Polcari calls in from the floor on the New York Stock Exchange. The markets had a big relief rally on Wednesday: split government is what the markets wanted to see. Then on Thursday, the markets breathed out. Kenny says we are in a seasonally strong time of year, but will likely test support before another leg up. Looking forward to 2019, Michael and Kenny say there is competition for money next year, and that's a good thing. We go to Washington with Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Dan pretty much called the election results right on: the suburbs turned towards the Democrats in the House, but the electoral map kept the Senate in GOP hands. Dan points out that divided government has historically produced significant legislation. Will we see the Art of the Deal President next year, or the Campaign Rally President? We continue to live in interesting times. For our special guest, tonight we have Greg Valliere, Chief Global Strategist for Horizon Investments. His career has been studying the links between DC policy and Wall St market movement. The 2018 midterms are over, and the 2020 campaign begins immediately, and Greg sees little getting done. He takes a little bit of a a contrarian view: gridlock is maybe not as good thing the markets think -- health care, infrastructure, and especially deficits all need attention. The important point for investors is the economic fundamentals are pretty sound, but Greg has some concerns that he shares. To subscribe to Greg Valliere's Daily Capitol Notes: http://www2.horizoninvestments.com/capitolnotes

The Market Soared! (But Hold On) Oct 31, 2018

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The market soared! Well, Kenny Polcari says hold on -- the Dow was up 400 points (and 250 of that in the last hour and a half today!) but we are still off 2000 from the highs. Kenny says it's not over yet, but the market is trying to build a base, but don't be surprised to see another test of the lows as the market digests the midterms. Is civility dead? That's the question Michael poses to DC expert Dan Mahaffee. The midterm campaigns are (over) heating, and we are one week from the election. Dan goes underneath the headlines and says there is some encouragement that civil discourse and debate might rise again in the Republic. For our third segment special guest, Michael welcomes Stephanie Link, fellow CNBC contributor and Head of Global Equities Research at Nuveen. This has been an extreme earnings season -- Stephanie says it's been "sell first and ask questions later." If you think long term (as Stephanie does) there are opportunities and the big picture, the fundamentals, are still good. We have to get through the midterms and the markets could find their feet.

A Fortnight Is About Two Weeks Oct 22, 2018

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Ganges, Potomac, and L'Etat C'est Moi (Oh My) Oct 16, 2018

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Welcome to the FarrCast! As always we start with the markets, and what a difference a week makes. The Dow ricocheted 500 points -- Kenny Polcari joins from the floor, and he says the pain isn't over yet, but it does seem like the markets are building a floor; Kenny says to watch for the lows creeping higher -- that's the good sign we want to see. It's early in earnings season, and while bottom line profits look good, the top line revenue growth is important and Michael and Kenny explain why. Senior political analyst Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the President and Congress calls in to give us the latest from Capital Hill. The President has been using the Stock Market as a scorecard for the economy, and that is becoming politically dangerous. Trump has said "my greatest threat" is the Federal Reserve. Looking abroad, Dan makes the point that while the US relationship with Saudi Arabia might not be a love match, the cost of the divorce is more than the cost of staying together -- expect realpolitik to outweigh outrage. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Mark Hamrick, longtime financial journalist, and current Washington Bureau Chief of Bankrate.com. We are living in a world of market gyrations, jawboning, and fake news. Mark talks about the importance of clear, verified information to the financial markets, and how as a journalists they plow through. Mark talks about the markets and how it's good for the investor that the Fed stays focused on their (apolitical) long-term goals.

Running To, and Running Away . . . Oct 10, 2018

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Markets are waffled as yield surged. Kenny Polcari joins us tonight and tells us why there is no reason to panic, and what to look for as earnings begin. Kenny is looking to the banks to get off to a good start, and is looking for another leg up before the end of the year. DC is the gift that keeps giving, and our senior political analyst, Dan Mahaffee helps to sort. Two weeks ago, Dan said Rosensteen stays and Kavanaugh goes -- Dan explains what got Kavanaugh over the line. Breaking news from DC today as Nikki Haley has resigned as Ambassador to the UN. There might be some musical chairs after the midterms, and Dan unpacks some of the rumors flying inside the Beltway. We welcome as our special guest, CJ Corneliussen from Metavivor.org, an organization working to improve funding and support for metastatic cancer. She explains the economics of cancer, and cancer research. There has been an emphasis on prevention and treatment in cancer research, but CJ helps us to understand how the profile of the funding has human, and economic costs.

Markets Underestimate the Fed, Kavanaugh Goes, Rosenstein Stays Sep 25, 2018

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Wow, what a week! What will we talk about? We start with the markets and Jim Iuorio -- there has been a lot of talk about a bull market, but Jim points out that much of 2015 and 2016 traded sideways. Corrections can be time or in price. There is a lot of great news lately -- consumer confidence, employment, median income. But there is concern -- will the higher rates eventually break the rally. Iuorio is optimistic but is worried about the word "accelerate" coming from the Fed tomorrow. Anything to talk about in DC this week? Supreme Court, midterms, resignations, oh my! The Kavanaugh nomination is trouble, and Dan Mahaffee says right now the votes might not be there. Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein was said to resign, then didn't, and now he's meeting with President on Thursday. Dan says right now the Democrats midterm strategy is the Napoleonic dictum: don't get in your adversaries way while he's making a mistake. In the third segment, Michael welcomes Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, past President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed is definitely going to announce a rate hike, but Dr. Lacker explains what the Fed is discussing as they look forward. He's been in the room in previous meetings, and he thinks the markets are under-estimating how many rate hikes are coming in 2019. It's a packed week. Listen in to the FarrCast and unpack it!

So You're Saying It's Coercion Sep 18, 2018

Show notes

Michael opens tonight's show with an explanation of financial discipline -- investors talk about it, but what does it mean? How does rebalancing help manage your risk? Michael brings on bond expert Andy Mathes tonight. He tells us what he sees in the bond markets, and what that tells us about where the equity markets go next? Last week, Dan Mahaffee said that the Kavanaugh nomination should proceed apace unless something cataclysmic happens. Tonight Mahaffee says "I think we have a cataclysm here." The Kavanaugh hearings calls into question the nature of the Supreme Court: is the Court a political court or a constitutional court? The FarrCast welcomes back Lester Munson, former chief of staff for Senator Mark Kirk. Les has spent over 25 years on the Hill and working in foreign relations. Les and Dan have a lively discussion on the escalation of the trade war. How vulnerable is China? What does "winning" a trade war even mean? Listen in and learn about today's movement in the bond market to the future of the Chinese economy, and everything in between.

Pulling a Circus Tent Over the Swamp Sep 12, 2018

Show notes

When the S&P 500 set a new high on October 21, Kenny Polcari was the FarrCast saying he'd like the markets trade sideways for a bit AND he expected September to be okay. Now we are in the middle of September and Kenny has been spot on. Michael and Kenny talk about what comes next. Dan Mahaffee joins to look at DC: there is an unprecedented disconnect between the health of the economy and the popularity of the President. Trump fatigue is setting in, and the GOP looks to lose the House. Tom Heath of the Washington Post joins us to bring his long term perspective. You have to expect the markets to go down. You have to expect the markets to go up. That's what markets do -- make sure you know what your time horizon is for your investments, and don't panic. If you can't sleep at night worrying about your investment -- don't own it.

Playing Chess on Three Boards Aug 29, 2018

Show notes

It's the Chicago FarrCast! Jim Iuorio joins us from Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The markets had an excuse this week to back off with a little hint of wage inflation (remember February when a hint sent the market into a correction?) but the rally continues. The yield curve is flattening, but it's still positive. There might be a chink in the market's armor in the increasing rate environment. Chicago native Dan Mahaffee from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress comes in and gives us a little more detail about the Mexico trade deal. The rhetoric is positive, but Dan tells us why the Canadian hurdle might still be a bigger jump (and why that impacts any deal with Mexico.) It's a big week in DC -- Sessions stays? Kavanaugh to be confirmed? And a few words on the late, great, Senator John McCain. For the long term look, Michael welcomes back Jack Bouroudjian, Chief Economist from UCX in Chicago -- six months ago on the FarrCast Jack said, "the easy money in this market has been made." Jack is watching the dollar, emerging markets, and he's concerned these highs are occurring at the wrong time. Is a late summer peak? Jack tells us the bond markets are telling us one thing and the equity markets another. It's a confused market -- Jack says to be very careful. Wall Street, The Hill, and The World -- The FarrCast covers it all! Listen and subscribe today!

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