The FarrCast : Wealth Strategies

Latest Episodes:

Special: Innovation in China (and Coffee and Joy!) Apr 10, 2019

Show notes

It’s a special FarrCast. On this week’s regular show, guest Chris Campbell from Yum Brands China shared some of the details of doing business in China. In the special, Michael welcomes Chris back for an extra segment for a deeper dive. China expert Dan Mahaffee stays on and we learn about making an archtypical American brand – KFC – into a uniquely successful Chinese business. Listen for a fascinating look at the interactions of a changing culture, emerging middle class, and new technologies (that you may see at your KFC in coming years.) It’s about more than chicken – it’s a look into the cross-cultural reach of international business. “The interview with Chris Campbell regarding YUM China may include ‘forward looking statements’ within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended. We intend all such forward-looking statements in this interview to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.”

Ten Year Money Sometimes Forgets It’s Ten Year Money Apr 10, 2019

Show notes

First up on tonight’s FarrCast it’s Josh Brown from CNBC and Ritholz Wealth Management. Josh and Michael talk about where every investment relationship begins – not with what security to buy, but with what the investor’s goals are. Josh tells why he’s not afraid of a recession, and shares the one thing he is absolutely certain of. (It’s not what you think!) Next up it’s our senior political analyst Dan Mahaffee. Sec’y Nielsen is out at Homeland Security – and there are implications beyond just the border. The Mueller investigation has had its first leaks, but is everyone just sick of it now? The cracks are beginning to show in the Democratic party between the moderates and the progressives. Dan takes us through DC – the gift that keeps on giving. We have a special third segment. We keep hearing that doing business in China is different. We have a guest who knows first hand what doing business in China means: Chris Campbell, a Director of Yum Brands China. He was the architect of the spinoff of Yum China and they now employ 450,000 in China. Chris talks about their business model and how they navigate government regulations. It’s The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World “The interview with Chris Campbell regarding YUM China may include ‘forward looking statements’ within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Act of 1934, as amended. We intend all such forward-looking statements in this interview to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.”

You Don't Learn Much from the Second Kick of the Mule Apr 03, 2019

Show notes

In the past, the yield curve inversion has been a pretty good indicator of a recession. Jim Iuorio joins and explains, technically (but simply) why this time is different. Jim says there isn't much to be scared about -- except other people being scared. Eventually a recession will come, but Jim says right now, the economy is broadly in good shape. He shares his concerns, and what he's watching coming over the horizon. There might be some bumps in the market as the economy shifts into a new gear. Dan Mahaffee joins to talk what's going on in DC. The talk in DC begins with the Southern Border. Dan breaks down the forces for migration. It's different from the economic migration of decades past as Central American families flee violence. There are short-term and long-term issues, and all have economic, political, and humanitarian impacts. In the White House, the President has shifted again on healthcare, and on the Hill, the GOP has collective sigh of relief. Michael closes with his outlook on the world -- we are climbing a wall of worry, and that's not a bad place to be.

The President Might Not Drink But He’s Enjoying Mueller Time Mar 27, 2019

Show notes

It’s the FarrCast: Washington, Wall Street and the World! We start on Wall Street as Michael welcomes back Stephanie Link. The markets have twisted and turned as the yield curve has flattened, but Stephanie says it’s no time to panic. She is looking long term and it’s not rosy – but it’s not bad. Michael moves on to Washington and Dan Mahaffee joins to talk about the policy implications of the Mueller report. There are opportunities for progress but at least for now, both sides are playing to their base. For the third segment, Heather Long, economics correspondent from The Washington Post calls in to talk about the bigger world. Every year the first quarter brings bad news – Heather shares what she’s looking for in a spring bounce. As long as the consumer is ok, the economy will keep chugging along.

It's Easy to Yell at a Panda Mar 21, 2019

Show notes

Welcome to another great FarrCast! Michael welcomes back Kenny Polcari. It's been a pretty good year so far, but he expects a little sideways movement. There has been a lot of good news priced in (and the Fed gave the markets some good news today) and there could be some shocks along the way. On the whole, the economy is sound and Kenny says stay the course, and watch for opportunities to buy. For the second segment we move from Wall St to Washington, and senior analyst Dan Mahaffee is our guide. Not everyone is running for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but it seems like it. We are in the age of social network campaigning: sensationalism works but is it healthy? Dan is the Director of Policy for the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress -- and there is much to study. What in the world is going on with Brexit? When the experts aren't sure, they go to their experts and we go to Andy Keiser. Andy is a national security expert with two decades of experience, but he makes clear, no one has experienced anything like this.

Calling It Dog's Breakfast Is an Insult to What I Feed My Dog Mar 13, 2019

Show notes

Michael welcomes Jack Bouroudjian, legendary trader and economist from UCX in Chicago. When Jack was last with us, it was just before the market bottomed. He told us what the markets needed to turn at Christmas, and he was spot on. He shares what he's looking for next -- and it's something every investor needs to hear. The Speaker says the President isn't worth impeaching; Dan Mahaffee says the Democrats are opting for guerrilla warfare instead of trench warfare. Brexit is back at the top of the headlines, and PM May was walloped in Parliament again. It's yet another impasse for Parliament and there are no easy or obvious solutions. Les Munson adds that the dreams of an independent UK are, ironically, dying on an Irish border. For the third segment, the conversation shifts to China -- and special guest Lester Munson. Does President Xi need a deal more than President Trump? Whether the tariffs have had an impact on the Chinese or not is unclear, and perhaps unimportant. The details of any deal matter, but the details of how to get there might not be.

Are We Just a Ball of Yarn and They're a Large Cat? Mar 06, 2019

Show notes

Jim Iuorio joins in with a check in on the markets. Listeners to the FarrCast know that when the markets bounced on Christmas Eve, there would be a pause in the rally about 2645 (and there was) and then at 2800 (and here we are.) Jim says to break higher we need two things: a real (even if incomplete) agreement with China, AND the Fed doesn't re-pivot and turn hawkish. If we see a "grace period" Jim thinks the markets will power through the 2800 level. For the second segment, Dan Mahaffee joins us -- it's a big week in DC. Trump walked away from the table in VIetnam -- The President saw a no deal was better than a bad deal with North Korea. Dan explains Robert Lighthizer's task: negotiating any enforcement of a deal with China. It's a huge task, but incremental progress seems to being made. Dan says we get a deal, but it will be vague, and there will likely have a "snapback" tariff mechanism. Meanwhile in DC, the Democrats are sorting out the 2020 contenders, and Dan says a Biden announcement appears imminent. Michael closes the show with an explanation of how the supply solutions to the Financial Crisis are reaching their limits. The slow growth environment of the economy has deep roots, and lower returns on investment are likely to be the norm for sometime. But the future isn't bleak -- ok IS ok! Lower returns doesn't mean no return at all.

Making His Own Headwinds Feb 28, 2019

Show notes

With the Federal Reserve at the top of the headlines this week, we have a special FarrCast beginning with special guest Dr. Jeffrey Lacker, former President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, now Distinguished Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, . The Fed has shifted into pause and the balance sheet is moving towards normalization. What does that mean for the economy? For the markets? Dan Mahaffee joins us from the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress -- and there are so many things to study just today! The one point we may have learned from the Cohen testimony is that even if the Mueller investigation is wrapping up, there are other investigations lining up. Elsewhere on Capitol Hill, Trade Negotiator Robert Lighthizer was testifying -- and it looks like the Trump Administration wants some wins, even if it doesn't mean full resolution. Plus Korea, India, Pakistan, and more -- it's a full plate. To bring it together we welcome back audience favorite Tom Heath from the Washington Post. Tom cuts through the noise -- and reminds us the market has rallied and the economy is sound. Tom reminds us the lesson is the long term investor needs to stay in the market or you'll miss the legs up. We will have a recession sooner or later, but probably later. It takes a patience -- the calendar is the long term investor's friend.

Here’s My LeBron Moment Feb 20, 2019

Show notes

Snow is coming to DC and Michael is back in studio to bring you another great FarrCast! Kenny Polcari calls in from his new gig, and says the markets feel good. The markets are expecting a trade deal, but not getting too far ahead of itself. Markets are reasonably priced after rising out of the despair of December. The markets started low, but Kenny sees a piece meal trade deal coming together, and the markets having a constructive year. Dan Mahaffee is back on the FarrCast to give us the insight from Capitol Hill. The China deal still has a long way to go, and China’s history speaks to a deep cultural resistance to a technology deal. Both sides need a win, so financial access issues and tariff suspension might be declared a win, but deep divides remain. Moving on to Europe, the Munich Security Conference has shown how deep the divide is now between the US and our allies. Yet Dan says unless it hits pocketbooks, ultimately American voters don’t care. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Greg Valliere to the studio. Greg has long been one of the leading policy analysts writing for the financial industry. Greg parses the latest moves from the Democrats – and how those moves strengthen Trump with his base. In a wide ranging conversation, Greg and Michael handicap the early stages of the 2020 Presidential race, the Fed and interest rates, and the forecast for the economy. To subscribe to Greg Valliere’s newsletter, Capital Insights, go to: https://perspectives.agf.com/subscribe/

We've Had a Pretty Good Year in the Last Month Feb 13, 2019

Show notes

It's a new FarrCast! The markets are up 17% off the Christmas lows. Will the rally continue? As we hit the next significant resistance level, Michael talks with Jim Baka of Calamos Wealth Management on some of the tools available to the long term investor. Senior Political Analyst Dan Mahaffee says the President might not be happy -- but with a deal in place in Congress, another shutdown isn't likely. The next fight is over where the Administration is going to shift money around to buy more wall that what the Congress will appropriate money for. Dan moves on to China -- the rhetoric has calmed down, but the two sides really are far apart. Issues remain, but there is enough progress that Dan thinks the President will postpone the March 1 tariff deadline. Moving on to Brexit -- the Brexiteers want to leave the EU club but dictate the terms to the club. Dan isn't as optimistic as he was on a second referendum, but thinks some delay to the exit is coming. In the third segment, Michael welcomes John Morris of Crestwood Advisors. Michael and John dive into the rally. How far can it go? The economy is plodding along -- John thinks volatility is hiding now, but not going away. He's confident that the markets will be constructive this year, but there will be potholes along the way, and even a correction isn't out of the question.

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