The FarrCast : Wealth Strategies

Latest Episodes:

The Fed’s Wrong, No China Deal, and Stupid Healthcare Expenses Jun 19, 2019

Show notes

We’ve got another new FarrCast for you tonight! The markets surged today and we are within 1% of all-time highs. The situation is so desperate that the markets need the Fed to step in to prop the markets up. Well, that doesn’t make sense when you say it out loud, but Michael does his best to explain that what the markets want might not be what the economy needs. Dan Mahaffee joins us to explain the third rail of Beijing politics. It’s been a remarkable week in Hong Kong, and the situation has ramifications beyond the port, and indeed beyond China as well. Our special guest tonight is Richard Thompson, one of the leading experts on pharmaceutical policy in the US. He begins by explaining how the trade fight impacts drug prices (it does!) Pharma regulation is a tangled web and is littered with policies that had unintended consequences both for medicine and for the economy. Dick helps to untangle and give us a clearer picture of the issues that impact the economy, the markets, your wallet, and everyone’s health.

Powell Is Playing for the Record Books Now Jun 12, 2019

Show notes

The markets roared up this week, but Michael is worried the markets might be a little too ebullient and has talked itself into thinking a Fed cut is coming. And perhaps Chair Powell gave some fuel on that fire. Michael says that pulling the trigger and lowering rates too soon might cause the kind of imbalances that can threaten the bull market. Dan Mahaffee joins for the second segment for a wide ranging discussion on the latest from China, the White House, and Capital Hill, and gives us a quick preview of the G20 meeting. For our third segment, Michael welcomes Robert Frick, Corporate Economist from Navy Federal Credit Union, the largest credit union in the country. With eight million members at Navy, Bob is an advocate for their jobs, and is always looking at the labor markets. Listen his for his thoughts on the slow down in job creation numbers -- concerned, perhaps, but its still a strong economy. Coming to you every week with insights from experts and insiders, it's The FarrCast: Washington, Wall Street, and The World.

It’s Like Caddyshack for the Markets Jun 05, 2019

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It’s been a tumultuous week on Wall Street, Washington, and in the World, and the FarrCast is here to try and bring a little insight. We begin with Jim Iuorio from the CME, and he says that it looks like the Fed has the markets back – whether you agree with it or not, it’s a good time to be in equities. But Jim cautions – sometimes selling begets selling, even if there is no real story why. And he shares his “Costanza Theory” on trading. Dan Mahaffee walks us through the latest tariff tantrum. For the moment, Stephen Miller is outpunching everyone in the White House. The President sees himself as an innovator and thinking outside of the box, but it is threatening his economic success, and rural America is running out of patience. Les Munson joins for the third segment with his quarter of a century of experience on Capital Hill. The President is getting boxed in – and Les tells us its from a place we might not expect. With the experts and insiders every week – it’s The FarrCast!

Maximum Impact, Minimum Ouch May 29, 2019

Show notes

It’s another great FarrCast this week, and Michael kicks it off with Kenny Polcari. Kenny says investors should be worried, but be aware – the conversation has changed and the negatives can start feeding on themselves. Markets reprice when given new information and the pullback on the change of China trade talks is no surprise. Opportunities can arise because the algos and short term trades usually overreact to bad news. You can’t just throw a dart it, but a buying opportunity may be coming. Dan Mahaffee joins for the second segment and talks about what the President is not doing with China. A cooling off period has begun – how much is posturing and how much is a start of a new cold war? There is no playbook and while both countries want a compromise, there are limits to how far they will go. The impasse will continue over the summer as Dan explains the significance of the Tiananmen Square anniversary to the Party. Special guest Jack Bouroudjian joins for the third segment – he’s been nothing short of prescient on his previous FarrCast appearances and he polishes up his crystal ball for us. But first, he tells us about his one long term hold that’s worked out for him (33 years!) Jack sees the China trade war as necessary pain to protect IP not just for the short term interests of the markets, but for the health of both economies over the long term. He shares what he sees in the bond markets, more a foreign exchange story than a recession indicator. And Jack’s bullish call on markets for 2020. It’s the FarrCast: Washington, Wall Street, and The World.

I Think I'd Be Crying Before the First Daily Double May 22, 2019

Show notes

Welcome to the FarrCast! Markets moved down! Markets moved up! Well, that's what markets do -- Michael reminds that it's buy low, not sell low, that's the idea. The economy, and the markets, are ok, not great, definitely nervous, but ok. Dan Mahaffee joins us and it's been another interesting week in the Washington, beginning with a legal loss for the President. Dan walks us through the next steps and how the legal story winds along for some time. But perhaps outside of the beltway, people aren't concerned -- instead they are looking for normalcy and therein lies the story of the Democratic candidates for President. For the world we have James Pethokoukis from the American Enterprise Institute. From the first days of the Trump administration everyone points to infrastructure for possible middle ground that everyone can agree on. Jim says there has been great political theater, and we can expect more tomorrow when the Chuck & Nancy show arrives at the White House. There is a lot of uncertainty about growth --and there is a chance of recession -- but there is a chance of a productivity improvements and a sustained expansion.

Art of the Deal Translated into Mandarin May 15, 2019

Show notes

It’s a new FarrCast and the markets are swinging back and forth. Volatility is with us and it can be frightening, but Michael reminds us – sell high, buy low. It’s not a time to be chasing markets up then selling as we hit turbulence. Dan Mahaffee gives us insight into what is happening in Beijing as the trade war escalates. China’s historical vision tell them to avoid evening appearing to kowtow to the West and the US, and they feel they have an advantage not dealing with a domestic election cycle. The hardliners are in the ascendency and Dan doesn’t see any climb down soon. Stepping back, Dan points out that China, for all of their authoritarian issue and atrocious human rights record is a growing and vibrant country. The US cannot contain China -- How do we compete? For the world segment, Michael welcomes Martin Barnes, Chief Economist for BCA Research. What does trade war mean for the economy? There aren’t many precedents, but the 1930s are one, and it didn’t go well. Martin says he doesn’t see anything that dire, but it’s definitely bad news for the economy. Michael and Martin move the discussion on to the Federal Reserve and the pitfalls of monetary policy – and what they are getting right (so far.) Monetary policy is a blunt instrument, and it’s inevitable the Fed will eventually zig when they should have zagged. But for all of the trade uncertainty, as long as the Fed stays on the sidelines, Martin is constructive on the markets for the rest of the year.

Wow We Got a Lot of Metaphors This Week May 08, 2019

Show notes

Jim Iuorio says the pullback is real -- but it's not awful. A shakeout isn't necessarily a bad thing because it exposes weaknesses in the system, and we were comfortably at highs. The technical level that worries Jim is still a distance off -- 2825, and he wouldn't be surprised if we test it. The Fed is still sitting on the sidelines, and Jim is constructive on the rest of the year, but there will be a period of turbulence -- and perhaps a buying opportunity as it subsides. China is on everyone's mind, and political analyst Dan Mahaffee lived and studied there and is one of the Washington experts not just on what plays in DC, but plays in Beijing. No one in Washington, it seems, is comfortable with President Trump's negotiating style, but is conceding it might just work. Moving inside the Capitol Building, there is growing discontent with the Executive Branch's defiance of Legislative Oversight. If the impasses continue, the House may step up the pressure. We continue the conversation on DC (and back to China) with veteran journalist Mark Hamrick. Mark sees a resurgence of the center in American politics. Does Wall Street care? Mark says he doesn't think so: history tells us the markets do well in Democratic administrations and devoid of radical change, the capital markets chug along.

Plagiarism Now Seems Kind of Quaint May 01, 2019

Show notes

It's another great FarrCast this week and we kick it off with the return of Kenny Polcari! Markets are drifting upwards. Kenny says a lot of good news is already priced in and be prepared for a stall. Yet even after 25% up from the Christmas lows, Kenny remains productive on the markets. A well designed portfolio should So much to talk about in DC, and Dan Mahaffee begins with Schumer and Pelosi visiting the President and talking infrastructure. Everyone seemed to be happy and agreed spending two trillion dollars is a good idea (but no word as to where the money comes from.) Trump is suing to keep his finances secret. Dan says that Congress will continue to push investigations, but try and avoid impeachment. Dan closes with a quick overview of the Democratic nominees and recalls the Will Rogers quote, "I don't belong to an organized political party. I'm a Democrat." For The World segment, we are privileged to welcome Neil Dwane, Global Strategist for Allianz. Neil and Michael begin with the big picture: how the political and economic cycle of globalization that began with Reagan and Thatcher is merging into something else. The landscape is changing and Neil travels the globe and his crystal ball is as clear as anyone's. The changes we are seeing could have long term implications for trade, and ultimately for the dollar. Neil says a recession isn't close -- but could be forming on the horizon.

Trees Don’t Always Grow to the Sky Apr 24, 2019

Show notes

Markets made new highs today and The FarrCast welcomes special guest, Chief Economist from Wells Fargo, Jay Bryson. We start with an expert trader Steve Weiss. In the short term, markets, Steve says, are about expectations as much as anything. Sentiment turned so sour and the markets lowered expectations so much going into earnings season that the expectations were easy to beat. And so the markets march on. Steve says the underlying fundamentals are ok – and while he’s not wildly bullish, he’s constructive on the rest of the year. In the second segment, political analyst Dan Mahaffee joins us. The Democratic field just gets larger – and candidates are jockeying for attention, which doesn’t always lead to good policy proposals. The Mueller investigation isn’t leaving the headlines anytime soon, and Dan tells us what the winding path leads to next. Jay Bryson joins to talk about the broader world economy and he says the economy is doing pretty well right now; sure we downshifted a little from last year, but we didn’t stall. He explains why growing debt is a concern, but not a worry keeping him up at night. He doesn’t foresee a recession in view and explains recessions are caused by one of two things: unexpected events (which by definition you can’t expect) and financial imbalances (think housing 10 years ago, tech 20 years ago, commercial real estate 30 years ago.) Right now, nothing is wildly out of balance. Farr makes the case that Jay Bryson should be the next Fed Governor. The FarrCast: Wall Street, Washington, and The World!

I'm Worried That I'm Not Worried Apr 17, 2019

Show notes

We start with market expert Jim Iuorio calling in from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. After all of the hand-wringing, the markets are moving higher, and now closing in on the all time highs. Jim says he feels good, and that worries him a little bit. There might not be much more good news to add into the soup. Is there room for disappointment? Jim tells where he the next leg up, why it stalls, and where it goes from there. A holiday weekend is coming up and in DC that means Mueller time. Dan Mahaffee joins and tells us what we won't learn on Thursday when the redacted report will come out -- and where the next fights lie. Both sides will see what they want to see. Looking forward, the Mueller report won't change anyone's mind, can we move on to discussions about what matters to people's daily lives, and pocketbooks. Special guest Tony Fratto joins us for the third segment. Tony is a veteran of the Bush Administration (and campaigns.) We begin talking about Mayor Pete. Tony says Buttigieg is a serious, and genuine thinker. Is there room for reasoned debate and thoughtful policy in American politics? Tony has been in DC since 1991. He says living in DC gets easier year after year, but professionally, it's never been more raw. We close with looping around to the economy. Is 3000 within reach? Farr says yes.