The Dividend Cafe

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Wednesday - September 16, 2026 Sep 16, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile Fed day in which the FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points, moving the range from 3.50–3.75 to 3.75–4.00, a move largely priced in. He notes dot plots implying one more hike before year-end (around 4.00–4.25), with market reaction reflecting short-term yields up slightly, long-term yields down slightly, and the 10-year unchanged near 5.01. Markets sold off (Dow ~-740, S&P ~-0.6%, Nasdaq ~-0.1%) but improved off the lows, with internals not signaling a major risk-off flush. Economic data included stronger-than-expected August retail sales (1.2% vs 0.8%) and weaker NAHB homebuilder sentiment. He also answers a viewer question, distinguishing price spikes in items like oil from broad inflation driven by money supply, referencing CPI/PCE and headline vs core measures.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:17 Fed Rate Decision

01:03 Yield Curve Reaction

01:28 Why Markets Lead

02:10 Economic Data Check

02:29 Market Close Snapshot

03:30 Inflation Question Explained

04:44 Wrap Up and Thanks

04:52 Disclosures and Disclaimers

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - September 15, 2026 Sep 15, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would still look reasonable given expected double-digit earnings growth and a more tech-heavy index. He contrasts today’s resilience with 2023’s 5% yield episode when markets fell and credit spreads widened, saying spreads remain orderly. Ahead of the FOMC, markets price a 25 bp hike; he doubts bigger moves. He addresses weak 20-year auction headlines and explains that despite large AI-driven corporate issuance (hyperscalers spending $300–$400B; ~$2.4T total corporate issuance), pensions and insurers still strongly demand long-dated Treasuries.

00:00 Market Backdrop Today

00:44 Earnings And Valuation Math

02:27 Why Markets Stay Resilient

04:23 Fed Day And Bond Auction

05:08 AI Debt Versus Treasuries

07:16 Data Check And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - September 14, 2026 Sep 14, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dB7zsq

David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from the Newport Beach studio, recaps the show’s weekly content cadence, and reviews a relatively calm market day after a volatile weekend. Nasdaq and S&P finished down about 0.5% with semiconductors down 5.6%, tied to a weekend letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei urging major AI labs to slow development and seek regulation, with support from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Google’s AI leadership. Bahnsen notes heightened volatility, a brief 10-year yield move above 5%, and sector performance led by communication services while technology lagged. He says credit spreads remain benign but will be key to watch. He covers August CPI (0.4% headline, 0.3% core), elevated PPI (5.4% y/y), tanker shipping up ~300% amid Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions, cooling housing markets, the Fed meeting with an 86% implied hike probability, and WTI crude above $100 after a Saudi pipeline shutdown.

00:00 Welcome Back Monday

01:08 Program Cadence Explained

03:24 Market Selloff Recap

04:30 Anthropic AI Warning

07:28 Volatility and Credit Signals

09:05 Policy and AI Regulation

09:45 Inflation CPI and PPI

10:55 Shipping and Housing Cooling

12:04 Fed Meeting Rate Decision

13:18 Oil Surge and Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

What 9/11 Meant and Still Means for Investors Sep 11, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4ioMZyT

On September 11, 2026, David Bahnsen marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 with reflections as an investor, an American, and a person, focusing mainly on market lessons. He notes the S&P 500 was already down about 30% from its 2000 high before 9/11 amid falling earnings and a valuation re-rating, then reviews how markets closed for four days and fell sharply upon reopening, with about $1.5 trillion in market value lost that week. Bahnsen argues 9/11’s enduring investor lesson is not generic “markets recover,” but that markets adapt because human innovation and resilience reassert themselves, with U.S. equities up about 1,100% since. He also recalls post-9/11 national unity as diminished today, shares his personal experience as a newlywed facing career uncertainty, and recommends the 9/11 Museum while emphasizing remembrance.

00:00 9/11 Anniversary Intro

02:10 Why 9/11 Matters Investors

03:26 Markets Before the Attacks

05:26 Trading Halt and Reopen

09:28 Recovery Was Not Different

11:39 Human Nature Drives Markets

15:21 National Unity Then Now

17:41 Personal Life Lessons

20:58 Never Forget Closing

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - September 10, 2026 Sep 10, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and political pressure from upcoming midterms; he frames possible policy levels using core PCE (3.3%) and current fed funds (3.50–3.75%). He cautions against trading headlines and says rate moves are being sensationalized versus 2000. He also discusses tariffs as generally inferior to free markets, often retaliatory and effectively a consumption tax, but sometimes justified for national security or to counter unfair foreign policies. PPI and jobless claims were benign and in line.

00:00 Market Wrap and Oil Spike

01:08 CPI Preview and Fed Bets

02:40 Core PCE and Terminal Rate Math

04:52 Why Not to Trade the Noise

05:23 2000 Bubble Comparisons

06:57 Bull Markets and Fed Risk

07:28 Tariffs Explained Pros and Cons

10:03 PPI Claims and Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - September 9, 2026 Sep 09, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reports a third straight market decline (Dow -405, S&P -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside falling bond prices and a 10-year yield up 5 bps to 4.84%, noting Treasury talk of increasing long-bond buybacks to $6B is too small versus ~$5.5T of long debt and was met by higher yields. He walks through a hypothetical of refinancing all long-term debt with T-bills, which could flatten the curve but would push short rates up, remove long-duration supply, and make U.S. financing resemble an emerging market, undermining the Fed and increasing fiscal sensitivity and inflation premiums. He notes T-bills are ~22% of issuance vs a ~15–20% target. He discusses Japan and Europe’s zero/negative-rate policies often producing unintended outcomes (carry trades, deleveraging, higher saving). No major data today; PPI tomorrow and CPI Friday.

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:33 Treasury Buyback Buzz

01:57 Yield Curve Control Limits

03:20 Why Borrowing Long Matters

04:13 Fed Mandate And Inflation Risk

05:16 Japan Zero Rate Lessons

06:33 Europe Negative Rate Backfire

07:18 Wrap Up And Data Ahead

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - September 8, 2026 Sep 08, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets after Labor Day, noting the Dow fell 628 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined, though the Dow remains up over 10% year-to-date. Oil prices rose (WTI near $93.6, Brent near $98) amid heightened US-Iran/Middle East tensions, lifting inflation expectations and interest rates and raising concern about energy as a consumption “tax.” He highlights NFIB small business optimism at 98.7 and points to Friday’s CPI as the key market-moving event. He discusses the strong nonfarm payrolls report (162,000 vs. ~58,000 expected) alongside discrepancies with private payroll measures, with unemployment around 4.1% and the Fed seen as having a ~60% chance of a September hike amid a split committee and upcoming midterms. He also addresses client concerns about the Hugging Face incident and argues AI will both strengthen and intensify cybersecurity threats, with costs ultimately passed to consumers.

00:00 Market Wrap Kickoff

00:38 Oil Spike And Inflation

01:13 Key Data And CPI Watch

01:38 Jobs Report Breakdown

02:51 Fed Rate Hike Odds

03:28 Cybersecurity And AI Risks

04:47 Closing Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Real AI Problem Made Simple Sep 04, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hbt99a

This special edition of The Dividend Cafe argues that the key issue investors are missing in the AI story is not AI’s usefulness but whether massive AI infrastructure spending will earn an adequate return on invested capital. The episode highlights how major tech firms are raising unprecedented debt and equity—despite strong earnings—because free cash flow is falling or turning negative under enormous AI compute and data center CapEx. It notes high customer concentration and interconnectivity across the ecosystem, including Nvidia’s revenue reliance on three customers and AI labs’ heavy dependence on a small share of customers, alongside purchase commitments far exceeding current revenues. The central risk, the host argues, is whether capital markets continue funding the buildout and on what terms before profitable utilization arrives.

00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe

00:58 AI Everywhere Now

04:02 The Missing Investor Issue

06:16 Capex Funding Frenzy

07:59 Earnings Up Cashflow Down

09:44 Off Balance Sheet Reality

12:14 Why AI Economics Flip SaaS

16:28 Unknowns Behind Monetization

19:11 Return on Capital Question

20:58 Capex Bubble Spillover Risk

22:50 Concentration and Connectivity

24:10 Capital Markets Are The Gate

28:32 Wrap Up and Disclosures

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - September 3, 2026 Sep 03, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a strong Thursday rally in risk assets after a modestly positive prior session, citing improved market breadth, dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, slightly lower rates, and reduced September hike odds from 68% to 50/50 amid a split committee, easing inflation, and a normalizing labor market; he also notes political sensitivity ahead of November midterms. The Dow rose 624 points, the S&P 500 gained 1%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%, with strength in mega-cap tech and semis. He highlights wide sector dispersion (88% of financials above the 200-day vs. 94% of semis down 20% from highs), low volatility and shallow drawdowns, and historically positive 12-month periods after midterms. Economic data were solid: jobless claims 206K, ISM services 55.4, and a slightly narrower July trade deficit. He addresses a question on Trump Media’s Truth API, arguing it’s ethically questionable but not a major market needle-mover for long-term investors, and signs off ahead of Labor Day weekend.

00:00 Market Rally Recap

00:26 Fed Talk and Rate Odds

02:30 Sector Dispersion Signals

03:04 Volatility and Midterm Patterns

04:28 Economic Data Scorecard

05:00 Truth API and Trading Edge

06:53 Wrap Up and Weekend

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - September 2, 2026 Sep 02, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a modest market rebound after three down equity sessions, with weak internals and low volume as investors await Friday’s non-farm payrolls and next week’s CPI. The Dow rose 295 points, the S&P 500 gained 35 points (nearly 0.5%), and the Nasdaq added about 0.4%; rates were largely unchanged with the 10-year near 4.78, oil held around $90 WTI, and the yield curve remained steeper than recent periods. Economic data were mixed: ADP private payrolls missed slightly (38K vs. 47K expected) while July factory orders rose 0.9%. He then addresses whether buying back one’s own debt is intrinsically wrong, arguing it’s virtuous for individuals paying off loans, but for countries it often reflects refinancing via central bank actions (e.g., QE), which can support liquidity yet distort markets if done excessively.

00:00 Market Rebound Overview

00:24 Key Data Ahead

00:52 Rates Oil And Internals

01:16 Today Economic Prints

01:43 Debt Buyback Question

01:56 Personal Debt Payoff

02:21 Central Bank Mechanics

02:53 QE And Yield Curve Effects

04:05 When It Goes Too Far

04:43 Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com