The Dividend Cafe

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Tuesday - August 18, 2026 Aug 18, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a modest down day in markets with the Dow down 116 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1.3%, noting S&P advancers outnumbered decliners and equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted in a rotation toward value; the 10-year Treasury closed near 4.71%. Economic data was mixed: pending home sales fell 2.3% versus an expected 0.6% gain, housing starts missed at 1.2 million versus 1.3 million expected, import prices fell 0.4% versus an expected 0.1% rise, and industrial production came in at 0.2% versus 0.4% expected. He argues media “doomsdayism” about higher long-end yields overlooks longer-term context, with 30-year yields around 5.3% being normal historically, while acknowledging deficit and debt risks and linking higher growth to higher yields. He also cautions that CEO insider buying is only one data point and not a standalone investment thesis, emphasizing bottom-up fundamental analysis.

00:00 Market Wrap Intro

01:04 Housing Data Misses

01:41 Inflation and Production

02:12 Bond Yields Perspective

02:49 Debt Fears and Growth

04:21 Insider Buying Reality

05:11 Fundamentals Over Tips

05:26 Closing and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - August 17, 2026 Aug 17, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bTEA2m

From Charlottesville, host David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action: the Dow fell 273 points (~0.5%), the S&P 500 also about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.3%, with energy the only positive sector (up ~0.9%) and communication services the worst (down ~1.5%); the 10-year yield ended near 4.73% as the yield curve steepened. He highlights a chart showing AI-driven capital expenditures as an unprecedented share of GDP and discusses risks tied to funding costs. Citing Strategas, he notes steepening periods historically favor energy and financials over tech/communications. On politics, he sees polling and prediction markets suggesting a potential Democratic Senate flip, with Michigan pivotal, though Republicans may have a post–Labor Day spending edge. Economically, July retail sales fell 0.6%, while large tariff refunds may be supporting activity; he also flags housing affordability issues and previews Jackson Hole and upcoming Dividend Cafe content.

00:00 Welcome and Charlottesville

00:44 Market Close Recap

01:36 AI CapEx and GDP

02:59 Yield Curve Steepening

04:38 Senate Polling Outlook

07:36 Retail Sales and Tariff Refunds

09:06 Housing Affordability Chart

10:17 Fed Signals and Jackson Hole

11:39 Oil Prices and Rig Counts

12:26 Upcoming Shows and Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Letter To My Daughter as She Goes Off to College Aug 14, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U1KSqA

David Bahnsen opens the Friday Dividend Cafe with a personal episode, reading a verbatim letter to his daughter Sadie ahead of moving her into the University of Virginia. He praises her discipline and independence in earning admission while still enjoying friendships and fun, and urges her not to “peak in college” but to use the next four years as a springboard for real life. His core advice is to make good decisions, seize the day, choose friends who encourage her, and handle professors she disagrees with without seeking conflict. He offers brief dating guidance, emphasizes personal agency and responsibility in shaping the kind of life one has, reminds her to practice thrift with credit cards and apps, and closes by affirming unconditional love and support from her parents and faith.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - August 13, 2026 Aug 13, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reviews a broad market rally with the Dow up 69 points, the S&P 500 up two-thirds of a percent, and the Nasdaq up eight-tenths, alongside a modest bond rally as the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.65; WTI oil declined about 2.5% to $81. He highlights disinflationary data following a cooler CPI, with PPI coming in flat versus expectations of +0.2 and core PPI at 0.2 versus 0.3, putting core PPI at 4.2% year over year. Fed futures shifted, with September hike odds falling to about 32% from over 50% two days prior, while fundamentals remain strong despite valuation concerns near 22x. Weekly jobless claims were slightly worse at 209k versus 204k. He also discusses how inflation can erode sovereign debt burdens, risks of high debt-to-GDP (U.S. ~120%), and contrasts with Japan’s 204% given domestic ownership of JGBs.

00:00 Market Rally Recap

00:46 Inflation Data Boost

01:55 Rates Expectations Shift

02:26 Valuations Versus Fundamentals

03:08 Weekly Claims And Geopolitics

03:33 Debt And Inflation Playbook

04:54 US Debt To GDP Context

05:35 Japan Comparison And Scale

06:24 Wrap Up And Next Episode

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - August 12, 2026 Aug 12, 2026

Show notes

On Wednesday, August 12, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mixed market day as July CPI came in essentially in line with expectations, leaving stocks and bonds little changed (Dow flat, S&P up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 0.5%, 10-year unchanged). Headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month to 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2%, with medical care, airfares, used vehicles, and shelter contributing. Fed September hike odds fell from about 50% to 42% ahead of upcoming PPI data and Jackson Hole. He notes inflation is moving in the right direction slowly, while employment signals are mixed (unemployment 4.1%, weaker JOLTS and slightly missed nonfarm gains). Addressing a question on baby boomers supporting children, he says wealth transfers are not money creation and are a “closed loop,” though lower labor force participation and skills could hurt productivity.

00:00 Market Recap

00:33 CPI Breakdown

01:43 Fed Outlook Ahead

02:30 Jobs And Softening Data

03:01 Boomer Wealth Question

04:07 Is It Inflationary

05:05 Wrap Up From Florida

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - August 11, 2026 Aug 11, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Tuesday, August 11, describing a quiet, rudderless market session ahead of tomorrow’s CPI, with the Dow and S&P down about 0.3% and the Nasdaq down about 0.6%, the 10-year near 4.69%, and oil up about 1%. He notes better-than-expected NFIB small business optimism (99.8 vs. 97) and slightly stronger existing home sales (~4.1 million) though housing remains frozen by higher rates. Szytel then analyzes U.S. federal debt growth across eras since 2000, citing debt CAGR of 7.3% (2000–2008), 8.0% (2008–2017), 9.5% (2017–2022), and 6.6% (2022–now), arguing debt still grows faster than nominal GDP even in strong times. He also clarifies U.S. tax revenue is 17% of GDP federally but 27% including state and local when comparing to Europe’s ~50%.

00:00 Market Snapshot

00:56 Economic Data Check

01:39 Debt Growth Explained

02:53 Debt Eras Breakdown

04:03 Why It Still Matters

05:43 Tax Revenue Clarification

06:47 Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - August 10, 2026 Aug 10, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hmEuE3

David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe, recapping a quiet market day with the Dow down 60 points, the S&P essentially flat, and the Nasdaq down 32 bps, while noting rapid credit-spread tightening and the 10-year yield closing at 4.7%. Energy led sectors as oil rose over 5%, while REITs lagged; he highlights that most S&P 500 profit-margin expansion is concentrated in large tech rather than the broader index. PitchBook data show 33,600 unsold private-equity-owned companies globally, up year-to-date. On policy, the Senate recessed after voting to fund the government through mid-December, with no movement on a GOP budget blueprint or the CLARITY crypto bill. The key development was Friday’s jobs report: 23,000 jobs lost, large downward revisions, and a lower unemployment rate driven by labor-force exits, reducing September hike odds to 50/50. Redfin data show widespread below-ask home sales, especially in Florida and Texas, and he addresses a listener question about faith references in his Friday piece.

00:00 Welcome and Agenda

00:24 Market Wrap and Rates

00:57 Credit Spreads and Risk

02:18 Sector Moves and Breadth

02:57 Margins and AI Divide

04:12 Private Equity Backlog

05:17 Friday Episode Plug

06:02 Middle East and Oil

06:28 Washington Policy Update

07:21 Jobs Report Shock

07:55 Fed Outlook After Jobs

08:43 Housing Price Softening

10:50 Energy and SPR Levels

11:29 Ask TBG Faith Question

13:49 Closing and Friday Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Ten Economic Principles Worth Fighting For Aug 07, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yXEhxi

David Bahnsen argues investors focus too much on describing or predicting the economy and not enough on prescriptive first principles about what a market economy ought to be. He outlines 10 “non-negotiable” tenets of free enterprise: private property; the profit motive; division of labor; innovation and progress; capital and labor enhancing one another (rejecting a Marxian conflict view); laissez-faire as the default with prudent regulation; incentives matter; Hayek’s knowledge problem and the dangers of centralized planning; an economics of addition and multiplication (growth) over subtraction and division (redistribution/zero-sum thinking), including how his firm invests; and “work” as the verb of economics that animates prosperity and service to others. He warns these principles are being treated as dispensable across modern political discourse, with consequences for portfolios.

00:00 Why Principles Matter

02:08 Ten Non Negotiables

03:11 Private Property

08:51 Profit Motive

10:29 Division of Labor

11:45 Innovation and Progress

13:25 Capital and Labor

15:32 Laissez Faire

16:32 Incentives Matter

18:05 Knowledge Problem

21:09 Growth Not Zero Sum

23:31 Work The Verb

25:19 Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - August 6, 2026 Aug 06, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a down Thursday market session (Dow -464, S&P -13, Nasdaq flat) amid ongoing rotation between tech and value, with the 10-year yield up 6 bps to 4.68%. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 199k, a historically low level supportive of strong employment, and Q2 productivity rising 1.4% versus 0.6% expected, which he notes could be disinflationary over time alongside tools like AI. He then focuses on U.S. fiscal issues, citing a 7.7% fiscal gap versus much smaller gaps in Germany, France, and Italy, arguing Europe’s lower gaps reflect much higher taxation (including ~20% VATs), which comes with slower growth and reduced competitiveness. He warns U.S. fiscal irresponsibility can reduce long-term growth, even if higher rates from “bond vigilantes” are uncertain in timing.

00:00 Market Recap

00:44 Jobs and Productivity Data

01:10 AI and Disinflation

01:53 US Fiscal Gap Focus

02:35 Europe Comparison and VAT

04:24 Debt and Interest Rates

05:39 Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - August 5, 2026 Aug 05, 2026

Show notes

On Wednesday, August 5, Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the Dow rose 263 points while the S&P fell 12 and the Nasdaq dropped about 0.8%, with financials, healthcare, and staples leading as tech lagged after the prior day’s momentum rally. He says markets are increasingly desensitized to the war and are more supported by fundamentals, highlighting Q2 earnings where 61% of companies have reported, 86% beat EPS (highest in five years), and 77% beat revenue. Economic data included a weaker ADP private payrolls print (44k vs. 75k consensus) and ISM services roughly in line at 54.1. He answers a question on why the Fed doesn’t let rates float, outlining the Fed’s evolution from lender of last resort to open market operations, yield curve control, and rate targeting, arguing reserve-currency status and global interconnectedness make free-floating impractical now.

00:00 Market Recap Mixed Session

00:53 Hormuz Headlines vs Fundamentals

01:56 Q2 Earnings Strength

03:14 Today’s Economic Data

03:52 Should Rates Float Freely

04:20 Fed History and Evolution

05:41 Reserve Currency Reality

06:24 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com