The Dividend Cafe

Latest Episodes:

Wednesday - October 14, 2026 Oct 14, 2026

Show notes

On October 14, Dividend Cafe recapped a down market day with the Dow nearly flat, the S&P down over 1%, and the Nasdaq down about 1.9% as tech and semis led declines. Markets reacted to September CPI, with headline inflation up 0.6% (in line) but core CPI up 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and year-over-year core at 2.6% versus 2.5%, with broader components like airfares, transportation, and shelter costs rising. Rates rose then fell as stress prompted some flight-to-safety dynamics, and the yield curve continued flattening. The episode discussed a “mini” rate-hike cycle (around three hikes) and emerging cracks such as stressed neocloud bonds, bank loan value pressure, and widening CCC high-yield spreads. It also explained foreign withholding taxes in U.S.-listed European dividend ETFs and how foreign tax credits are claimed via year-end tax reporting.

00:00 Market Wrap and Rates

01:19 CPI Report Breakdown

02:07 Shelter Costs and Inflation Path

03:20 Mini Rate Hike Cycle

03:46 Cracks From Rising Rates

04:45 International Dividend Taxation

06:09 Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - October 13, 2026 Oct 13, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a modestly lower, mixed market day with the S&P flat, Dow down 180, and Nasdaq down about 40, led by weakness in semis and some AI names. With CPI due tomorrow, markets were largely rudderless; rates fell across the curve, especially long-end, further flattening the yield curve. Early bank earnings were generally positive even as financial stocks fell. He notes year-to-date gains alongside stronger earnings growth, implying multiple contraction and cheaper stocks. The main stress area is CCC credit, where yields are 15–17% and spreads have widened about 300 bps in five months, while broader credit remains constructive. He discusses bull market context, profit margins (Mag Seven effects, pricing power, PPI vs CPI), and notes NFIB optimism (97.9) and existing home sales (4.0M) met expectations; bonds rallied ahead of CPI.

00:00 Market Wrap Overview

00:29 Earnings Season Begins

00:54 Rates and Yield Curve

01:38 Credit Stress Signals

02:33 Earnings Growth Outlook

02:58 Bull Market Context

04:57 Profit Margins Explained

06:45 Economic Data Check

07:09 CPI Preview and Signoff

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - October 12, 2026 Oct 12, 2026

Show notes

In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen notes the stock market was open while the bond market was closed for a government/bank holiday, which he gave distortive given markets’ sensitivity to yields, and points viewers to Friday’s bond-yield episode. He recaps markets: Dow +196, S&P slightly down, Nasdaq down nearly 0.5%, with energy leading (oil above $93) and technology lagging. He emphasizes weakening market breadth and concentration, citing an unusually large gap between average S&P stock moves and the index, a low share of stocks above their 200-day moving average, and that the top five S&P companies equal the bottom 434 by market cap. He previews earnings, focusing on hyperscaler AI/semiconductor spending expectations and OpenAI/Anthropic profitability risks. He covers weekend geopolitical news (Russia/Ukraine energy ceasefire claims; Houthi attacks), Senate race forecasts, low consumer savings, housing affordability ratios, and Fed hike probabilities.

00:00 Holiday Market Caveat

01:13 Bond Yields Recap

01:49 Market Moves Today

02:32 Breadth Warning Signs

04:39 Earnings Season Focus

06:28 AI Capex Reality Check

07:34 Weekend Geopolitical News

08:38 Senate Map Outlook

11:30 Savings Versus Spending

13:49 Housing And Fed Watch

14:45 Midstream And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

What to Make of Rising Bond Yields? Oct 09, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4jNrsk2

David L. Bahnsen previews a fuller recap of portfolio-manager meetings next week and focuses this episode on the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields, especially the 10-year. He argues the 75-basis-point jump is not credibly explained by worsening U.S. deficits or national debt, noting total public-plus-private debt-to-GDP is unchanged versus 20 years ago and interest cost-to-GDP remains below historical averages. He also downplays inflation as the primary driver, citing only a 12-basis-point increase in 10-year breakeven inflation despite tariffs and oil-related supply shocks. Instead, he attributes higher yields to supply-demand dynamics from massive, high-grade AI-related debt issuance across hyperscalers and adjacent infrastructure, plus hedging/short positioning in Treasuries. He warns of narrow market breadth and “Mag Seven” as a safety trade, sees improved fixed-income attractiveness, and highlights potential opportunities in beaten-down REITs, financials, and industrials.

00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead

01:07 Why Long Yields Matter

03:10 Quick OpenAI Detour

03:52 Debt Is Not the Driver

09:12 Inflation Expectations Check

14:15 AI Debt Supply Shock

18:53 Fed Curve and Term Premium

21:30 Investor Impact and Breadth

24:05 Where Opportunity Lies Now

27:26 Final Thoughts and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - October 8, 2026 Oct 08, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel records shortly before the close on October 8, noting a modest down day with the Dow and S&P off about a third of a percent and the Nasdaq down about two-thirds, as value holds up better than growth amid sharply higher oil (WTI around $92, Brent around $106) and slightly higher rates. He observes the yield curve has been flattening over the past two weeks as long rates come down somewhat, with news out of France adding bond-market reverberations, and highlights better-than-expected initial jobless claims. Drawing on meetings with multiple portfolio managers, he discusses strong near-term earnings expectations—particularly in South Korean memory names—but cautions that forward-looking markets can quickly reprice if longer-term demand, productivity, or capex payoffs disappoint, arguing against over-concentration. He also explains that a 15-basis-point move in the 10-year is dramatic but more common than assumed, occurring about 34 times in five years.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:31 Market Snapshot Today

00:51 Oil and Rates Impact

01:36 Economic Data Check

01:50 NYC Manager Meetings

02:22 AI Memory Stock Caution

04:07 Rate Volatility Explained

05:23 Wrap Up and Sign Off

05:40 Disclosures and Disclaimer

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - October 7, 2026 Oct 07, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reports a modest down day in equities after all-time highs, with oil trending lower (WTI ~88, Brent ~100), a slightly flatter yield curve, and the 10-year around 5.28%. He cites limited economic news beyond FOMC minutes reaffirming a 25 bp hike and expectations for another hike this year, alongside a well-received ~40B 10-year auction. He describes a bifurcated backdrop: higher-for-longer rates pressuring rate-sensitive, long-duration sectors (real estate, BDCs, asset/alternative managers) while credit remains stable with subdued high-yield spreads, and the economy stays strong with full employment, high corporate margins, and inflation easing slowly. He highlights AI-driven productivity expectations as pivotal, advocates measured AI exposure, and says REIT dividends can hold and grow if holdings are selective and supported by rent growth, citing defensible real estate examples and past dividend growth through prior shocks.

00:00 Market Close Snapshot

00:39 Rates Oil and Rotation

01:08 Fed Minutes and Treasury Demand

01:47 Higher for Longer Risks

03:24 Economy Still Strong

03:44 AI Productivity Wildcard

04:34 REITs and Dividend Resilience

05:17 Portfolio Real Estate Examples

06:16 Wrap Up and Q&A Invite

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - October 6, 2026 Oct 06, 2026

Show notes

David Bahnsen delivers the Daily Recap from New York City while Brian Szytel meets with a manager, noting that he, Brian, and Kenny Molina are in their annual week of meetings with many money managers, having completed 16 meetings in two days and not yet halfway through. He says early takeaways include the biggest area of disagreement among managers being differing views on AI, while the common concern is the impact of higher bond yields across asset classes, with the 10-year yield (5.28% after falling three basis points) highlighted as especially important. Markets rose: Dow +250, S&P +45, Nasdaq +122; the bond market was up as yields fell. Utilities led sectors up over 3%, while healthcare was slightly down and the only sector in red. A new Ask TBG question is posted at dividendcafe.com, with Brian hosting podcasts Wednesday/Thursday and David returning Friday.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:09 NYC Manager Meetings

00:56 Key Themes AI and Yields

01:31 Market Snapshot

01:44 Rates and Ten Year Focus

02:04 Sector Performance

02:22 Ask TBG and Upcoming Shows

02:53 Wrap Up and Contact

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - October 5, 2026 Oct 05, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Tqofwe

The Monday Dividend Cafe is recorded mid-day during a “money manager week” of meetings at Apollo, Blackstone, and Golden Tree. With earnings season starting, quarterly earnings expectations have risen 1.8% in five days, with upward revisions concentrated in technology and downward revisions in consumer staples and industrials, shaping the bar for surprises. Yield-sensitive areas have dropped in recent weeks, creating potential recovery setups for REITs and alternative asset managers as fundamentals like asset gathering and slowing private credit retail redemptions remain solid. President Trump announced a federal AI “super intelligence” task force chaired by Jay Clayton. With midterms four weeks away, Senate control is described as a 50/50 proposition. Economically, Friday’s jobs report was weak (29,000 jobs, unemployment 4.2%, soft wage growth), shipping costs have surged, ISM Services dipped, and October rate-hike odds fell to 22% while year-end hike odds remain near 90% amid cautious Fed comments.

00:00 Midday Recording Setup

01:24 Earnings Season Expectations

02:33 Yield Sensitive Selloff

03:58 AI Task Force Policy

05:01 Midterm Senate Outlook

06:35 Weak Jobs Report

07:29 Rates Inflation Signals

08:28 Energy Midstream Notes

08:41 Wrap Up Disclosures

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Past, Present, and Future of The Bahnsen Group Oct 02, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4iVv0QW

David Bahnsen announces a temporary shift from the usual Dividend Cafe format: a normal episode on Monday, a future deep dive on long-term bond yields, and a later recap of the firm’s annual New York meetings with money managers. He marks the closing (September 30) of The Bahnsen Group becoming a wholly owned subsidiary of Hightower Advisors, explaining what changes and what does not—especially continued autonomy, culture, and client service while leveraging Hightower’s technology, compliance, cybersecurity, and client portal resources. Bahnsen recounts his path into finance from managing musical bands, early career at PaineWebber/UBS, adoption of dividend growth, move to Morgan Stanley, thriving through the financial crisis, key partnerships with Brian Szytel, Kimberly Davis, and Robert Graham, and the 2014 move to independence. He notes current scale (14 offices, 13 cities, $10.5B, ~110 employees) and reiterates he is not leaving the firm.

00:00 Welcome and Housekeeping

01:50 Why This Episode Matters

03:15 Early Life Before Finance

05:31 Entering Wall Street

07:02 UBS to Morgan Stanley

09:02 Building the Core Team

10:36 Going Independent

13:13 Choosing Hightower Partner

14:20 Growth and Evolution

16:58 Acquisition and Autonomy

20:04 What Changes for Clients

22:23 Personal Motivation Story

25:54 Closing and Next Week Preview

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - October 1, 2026 Oct 01, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel hosts The Dividend Cafe from New York City on the first day of Q4, noting a benign market day (Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq flat) and a slightly steepening yield curve. He argues that higher long-term rates repricing toward nominal growth is natural, not inherently sinister, and says the first “cracks” to watch would be widening high-yield credit spreads, which remain very tight, suggesting no recession signal. He reviews economic data including initial jobless claims at 197, manufacturing PMI still expanding at 55.9, and construction spending up 0.9%, ahead of an expected 90,000 nonfarm payrolls report. Responding to an article on dividend growth, he endorses the quality of dividend growers but rejects the claim that a 3–4% yield with ~7% dividend growth is unavailable, warning that funding spending by selling shares or using option overlays on dividend portfolios can cause permanent impairment; he recommends building a dividend portfolio to meet expenses and cites David Bahnsen’s book, “Profit from the Profit."

00:00 Welcome and Market Snapshot

00:48 Rates Rising and Growth Outlook

02:06 Watching Credit Spreads

02:31 GDP Earnings and Productivity

03:56 Jobs Data and Economic Calendar

04:46 Dividend Growth Strategy Debate

06:10 Why Selling Shares Hurts

06:40 Options Overlays and Better Approach

07:20 Book Recommendation and Sign Off

07:41 Disclosures and Disclaimer

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com