The Dividend Cafe

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Wednesday - September 30, 2026 Sep 30, 2026

Show notes

On Sept. 30, Brian Szytel reports a bifurcated market into quarter-end, with the Dow down about 200 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise, led by large-cap growth; yields steepen as the 10-year and 30-year move higher. A cooler-than-expected PCE inflation report (core and year-over-year) lowers implied odds of an October Fed hike to about 35%, though Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could shift expectations. Other data were stronger: Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, ADP payrolls beat estimates, and consumer spending was robust, suggesting the economy is still humming despite high rates and debt concerns. He discusses a shifting Fed “put” narrative and answers why forward PEG ratios can look cheap versus expensive backward-looking metrics: higher expected growth, stronger profitability, and greater index concentration in the “Mag Seven,” with risk that earnings expectations could fall if AI spending disappoints.

00:00 Quarter End Market Recap

00:52 PCE Inflation And Yield Curve

02:07 Fed Hike Odds And Jobs Watch

02:33 GDP Payrolls And Spending

03:28 Bond Vigilantes And The Fed Put

05:35 Valuation Question CAPE Vs PEG

06:30 Tech Boom Comparisons And AI Risk

07:36 Dividend Focused Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - September 29, 2026 Sep 29, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reviews modest market declines (Dow -131, S&P -0.15%, Nasdaq -0.10%) with major indexes still up YTD, and focuses on the bond selloff pushing the 10-year yield to about 5.24% amid speculation about 6%. He argues higher yields reflect both higher nominal growth near 6% and a Fed intent on reducing its balance sheet, with limited ability for Treasury financing tactics to meaningfully lower yields. He notes consumer confidence missed (81 vs. 89), JOLTS openings dipped slightly (7.1M vs. 7.2M), and Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.3% monthly but lag inflation amid high mortgage rates and weak price discovery. He answers why rates rise despite higher oil: the Fed targets elevated PCE/core inflation by tightening to cool broad-based price pressures.

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:29 Why Yields Are Rising

02:17 Fed Put and Bond Vigilantes

03:16 Where Rates May Settle

03:37 Today’s Economic Data

04:33 Housing Market Reality Check

05:21 Why Hike With High Oil

07:04 Wrap Up and Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - September 28, 2026 Sep 28, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4AC4xy1

From Las Vegas ahead of an investment conference, the host recaps a volatile market day (Dow -347, S&P -0.77%, Nasdaq -0.92%) while the S&P sits near all-time highs despite very weak breadth: ~60% of S&P 500 names are down 20%+ and the market has seen repeated 52-week lows exceed highs; he clarifies a misunderstood stat showing the weighted average decline among 430 down names is 21.7%. He ties the damage to rising yields (10-year ~5.23%), notes defensives led on the down day (staples, healthcare, energy), and argues mega-cap rallies can occur within a longer consolidation after stretched valuations, with a “rubber band” in relative sector valuations. He also covers friendlier U.S.–China tone with mostly status-quo trade, election prediction-market odds, flat August durable goods, more housing price cuts and rising inventory, mixed office-market trends by city, Fed proposals to raise bank oversight thresholds, and oil near $93 with Iran/diesel-export headlines; Q3 ends this week and TBG begins annual manager meetings next week.

00:00 Welcome From Vegas

00:51 Friday Energy Plug

01:43 Market Drop Recap

02:38 Breadth Warning Signs

05:51 Bond Yields And Sectors

07:00 Mega Cap Rally Context

08:13 Valuation Rubber Band

09:30 China Talks Update

10:37 Election Odds And Senate Map

13:18 Economic And Housing Data

15:04 Fed Oversight Proposal

15:40 Oil And Energy Headlines

16:44 Week Ahead And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Unapologetic Energy Bull: Meet Me in the Middle Sep 25, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4rwGwnT

David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe and explains he chose to focus on an energy investment theme rather than the week’s surge in bond yields. He argues investors and media overemphasize headlines about the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and WTI prices, while the energy sector remains largely ignored due to its small S&P 500 weight (about 3.5% versus Apple at 7.4%, and midstream at 0.5%). He notes oil supply disruptions have been buffered by large inventory drawdowns, and that energy equities appear disconnected from oil’s move, with valuations running about 70% of their historical relationship to the broader market. He makes a bullish, longer-term case tied to AI-driven power needs and highlights midstream “2.0” fundamentals: rising domestic and global natural gas demand, expanding LNG export capacity, hard-to-permit pipelines with inflation-protected contracts, better governance, lower leverage, and strong distribution growth potential.

00:00 Welcome And Setup

01:07 Why Energy Is Ignored

05:03 Index Weighting Reality

08:49 Hormuz Supply Shock

11:55 Oil Versus Stocks Gap

14:08 AI Needs More Power

15:16 Valuation Case For Energy

17:14 Midstream Opportunity

18:24 Midstream PTSD And Comeback

19:51 Midstream 2.0 Tailwinds

22:20 Pipelines And Capital Discipline

25:15 Wrap Up And Takeaway

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - September 24, 2026 Sep 24, 2026

Show notes

On Thursday, Sept. 24, Brian Szytel recaps a down Dow day with the S&P and Nasdaq flat as markets rebounded late on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks potentially easing the Strait of Hormuz situation; WTI still rose about 3% to roughly $95. He highlights the bigger story as higher interest rates, with the 10-year yield up another 10 bps to about 5.21% and up 120 bps year-to-date, arguing media may be overstating it and noting long rates also reflect growth expectations, strong earnings, and economic activity, while higher rates also boost interest income to savers and the economy. Economic data included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (197k) and stronger new home sales (684k). He also addresses international dividend stocks, noting foreign withholding taxes can be offset via foreign tax credits, but prefers U.S. dividend growers due to steadier dividend policies and less sector concentration than Europe/Asia.

00:00 Market Close Recap

00:38 Oil Surge And Rate Shock

01:31 Why Long Rates Rise

03:01 Higher Rates Upsides

04:10 Economic Data Check

04:54 International Dividend Stocks

05:50 US Versus Overseas Dividends

07:43 Wrap Up And Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - September 23, 2026 Sep 23, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reports a broad market decline driven by a bond selloff, with yields rising across the curve in a bearish flattener; the 10-year finished near 5.11%, while the 2s/10s spread remained about 21 bps. He attributes the rate move to stronger flash PMI data in services (58.7 vs. 55.7) and manufacturing (57 vs. 53.5), alongside hotter input inflation tied to fuel and transportation. Energy markets showed angst amid Iran-related developments and discussion of a possible U.S. diesel export ban, with WTI up about 2.7% to nearly $93. He then addresses comparisons between the 1990s internet boom and today’s AI boom, arguing that even profitable, durable companies like Cisco and Microsoft suffered massive drawdowns due to valuation, cautioning that today’s highly valued AI names may have too much optimism priced in.

00:00 Market Selloff Recap

00:51 Yield Curve and Recession Talk

02:02 Flash PMI Surprise

03:02 Inflation and Energy Risks

04:09 Dotcom vs AI Debate

05:49 Valuation Lessons Cisco

06:16 AI IPO Pricing Caution

07:16 Closing Thoughts and Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - September 22, 2026 Sep 22, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the S&P 500 finished flat, the Dow fell 185 points, and the Nasdaq rose about 0.5% as long-end yields eased slightly and the 10-year held near 4.95%. He notes financial conditions have loosened a bit since the Fed’s recent hike, with stocks higher, tight credit spreads, and long yields down, while markets still price more restrictive Fed policy even as WTI slipped below $90. He observes a previously strong negative correlation between AI/semiconductors and software stocks is becoming more nuanced, creating potential opportunities. Addressing a listener question, he explains how the long-running yen carry trade was amplified by U.S. rate hikes and Japan’s zero rates, but is now unwinding as Japan raises rates, reducing arbitrage, prompting deleveraging and some risk-asset pressure, though orderly so far.

00:00 Market Snapshot

00:27 Rates and Fed Conditions

01:11 Oil Move and Inflation Signals

02:05 AI Semis vs Software Rotation

03:45 Outlook for More Hikes

04:32 Carry Trade Explained

05:52 BOJ Shift and Deleveraging

07:23 Wrap Up and Calendar

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - September 21, 2026 Sep 21, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4y9YwqV

David Bahnsen delivers a quick Monday Dividend Cafe update from Chicago after travel disruptions, covering a strong market day led by communication services and technology while energy fell on a nearly 5% drop in oil; he notes the S&P 500 is near an all-time high even as market breadth has deteriorated sharply. He discusses rising margin debt and how its use has shifted toward non-purpose lending, highlights record ETF inflows into technology as a contrarian signal, and reviews news including media access litigation, progress on the Paramount/Warner Brothers deal, Apollo buying a 16% stake in the New York Yankees, and a newly announced AI task force. Economic data included flat industrial production, stronger retail sales, weak homebuilder sentiment, and declining housing starts, while Fed commentary shifted toward expecting a possible October hike and noting Chairman Warsh’s skepticism about a knowable neutral rate and strict data dependency; the Bank of Japan also raised rates.

00:00 Welcome and Travel Update

01:17 Market Rally and Sector Moves

02:13 Market Breadth Warning

03:29 Margin Debt and Leverage

05:15 Tech ETF Inflow Surge

05:39 Headlines and Deal News

06:27 Policy and Global Trade

07:30 Economic Data Roundup

08:04 Housing Slump Signals

09:16 Fed Outlook and Warsh Takeaways

11:18 Oil and Midstream Positioning

11:55 Wrap Up and Disclosures

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

"The Most Performative Interest Rate Hike Ever" Sep 18, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4j4mxuI

David Bahnsen discusses the Fed’s quarter-point rate hike, arguing it was largely “performative” because markets had already tightened financial conditions and the Fed is now following rather than leading. He notes the fed funds futures market implies an 87% chance of another hike this year and reviews the political speculation around Chairman Kevin Warsh and President Trump, including Trump’s post calling for 1% rates while diverting attention to trade deficits. Bahnsen highlights the unanimous 12–0 vote, the Fed’s focus on price stability amid supply-shock pressures, and the neutral mechanics of paying 3.9% on reserves. He reviews muted bond-market moves, elevated mortgage rates near 7%, and cautions against overreading immediate stock-market reactions, emphasizing earnings, AI, oil, and valuations as bigger drivers than the fed funds rate.

00:00 Welcome and Fed Week

00:44 Why the Fed Matters

02:08 Performative Rate Hike

05:11 Politics and Independence

10:54 Midterms and Next Hike

11:52 Unanimous Vote Rationale

14:34 Bond Market Reaction

17:02 Stocks and Volatility

19:05 Practical Takeaways

21:28 Closing Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - September 17, 2026 Sep 17, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel reports a pre-close market rebound from Newport Beach on Thursday, September 17, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P up over 1%, the Nasdaq up about 1.5%, and the 10-year yield falling to 4.95% as the curve flattens; oil prices eased and recent sector rotation briefly reversed as tech regained bids and equal-weight indexes underperformed cap-weighted. On the economic calendar, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index beat expectations and initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 versus 208,000, while housing starts and pending sales missed slightly. He addresses fears about AI by noting historical patterns of technology skepticism and euphoria, citing the 1990s productivity paradox and subsequent productivity surge. He also answers a question on $100+ oil alongside Fed hikes, saying it has not always signaled recession and that current expected rate increases are modest unless policy overdoes it.

00:00 Market Rebound Snapshot

00:26 Rates Oil And Rotation

00:57 Economic Data Check

01:47 AI Fear And History

03:06 Oil Fed And Recession

03:57 Wrap Up And Next Read

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com