The Breakdown

Latest Episodes:

What’s Actually Happening with Inflation Right Now Aug 18, 2020

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There is perhaps nothing more important or contentious in macroeconomics right now than the question of inflation.

On the one hand, there is a growing concern that rapidly growing money supply and increasing central bank balance sheets will inevitably lead to inflationary pressures.

On the other, critics of that point of view point to significant counterveiling forces such as the 10% unemployment rate and growing savings rate among consumers.

So who is right?

What are the specific narratives trying to say?
What is the evidence and data actually telling us?
And how are real people experiencing inflation today?

Is Asteroid Mining Really Our Best Argument for Bitcoin Over Gold? Aug 16, 2020

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Earlier this week, the Winklevoss brothers introduced Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy to bitcoin.

One of the notable parts of the recap video was a discussion of how Elon Musk was set to destroy the value of gold on Earth by mining gold from asteroids.

While much meme fun was had, on this week’s Long Reads Sunday NLW has chosen a selection that looks at how fiat beat out gold and how gold beat out silver to provide some – ahem – more immediately relevant lessons on how to explain the benefits of bitcoin.

Read:Projection and ThrownessPart III — Bitcoin’s 10x Advantage Over Gold Might Not Lie Where You Think

By David Lawant

Here Comes the Most Bizarre Bull Market Yet Aug 15, 2020

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On this edition of The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the strange melange of realities interacting in the new emerging bull market.

On the one hand, bitcoin has found narrative relevance and technical importance in a world of social unrest and increased state involvement in economies and citizens’ lives.

On the other, insane financial engineering experiments are seeing three-quarters of a billion dollars in value locked up within hours before a bug sees it all go away.

In the middle, agents of chaos like new bitcoiner (and LINK-holder) Dave Portnoy.

This is going to get weirder before it gets more normal.

Fortnite vs. Apple/Google is the Internet's First ‘World War’ Aug 15, 2020

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Today on the Brief:

Jobless claims down and retail sales up
The U.S. Federal Reserve is running distributed ledger technology experiments
The end of an era, as BitMEX begins KYC

Our main discussion: the big battle brewing between Epic Games and Apple/Google.

NLW looks at:

Why Fortnite got kicked off the Apple and Google app stores
Why Epic Games is suing in response
Why this was all very clearly planned by Epic Games
Why Apple and Google should be nervous about anti-trust
Why this is about a much bigger future than just a single game

Preston Pysh on Why We’ve Entered a Fundamentally New Era of Bitcoin Accumulation Aug 14, 2020

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The Investor’s Podcast Network cofounder Preston Pysh last recorded with The Breakdown on Black Thursday in March. As NLW and Pysh discussed the potential of future currency crises, bitcoin smashed all the way below $4,000.

In the five months since, bitcoin has risen 200%. It has attracted the devotion of leading hedge funders such as Paul Tudor Jones II and more recently has become the reserve asset of choice of at least one publicly listed company.

In this conversation, Preston and NLW discuss:

The significance of halving coinciding with central bank printing
The inevitability of negative interest rates
Why it’s the dollar, not the stock market, that is inversely correlated with the price of bitcoin
Why Preston believes in the stock-to-flow model
Who pays the price for inevitable currency debasement
Why we’re dramatically underestimating the precedent set by MicroStrategy’s $250,000,000 cash-for-bitcoin reserve switch
Why MicroStrategy will be worth 10 times what it is today a year from now

Find out guest online:Website: theinvestorspodcast.com

Twitter: @PrestonPysh

#SupplyGate and the Battle to Frame Crypto’s Next Bull Run Aug 13, 2020

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Today on the Brief:

WSJ study finds TikTok was tracking data in a way that broke Android rules
The latest Core Inflation statistics
MicroStrategy stocks pops 10% after cash to bitcoin announcement

Our main discussion: What’s the Ethereum #SupplyGate really about

NLW breaks down:

The historical narratives bitcoiners and ether advocates hold relative to one another
The history of dominant narratives in crypto over the last three years
Why the next bull market is poised for a twin narrative combining bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement and DeFi as a money-making sandbox
What happened with #SupplyGate
Why #SupplyGate is as much about narrative competition as it is about the supply of ether

Joe Rogan for Fed Chair! Feat. Hugh Hendry Aug 12, 2020

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Today on the Brief:

A public company has switched $250 million in cash reserves to bitcoin
The latest in the vaccine rumor trade with Vladimir Putin’s propaganda play
Hong Kongers use the stock market to protest

Our main conversation is with former hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry.

After a few years of focusing on a “volatility at the end of the world trade” in property development in St. Barth’s, the constant contrarian Hugh Hendry has returned to the macro world in a big way.

In this conversation, Hugh and NLW discuss:

Why Hugh left macro, and why he came back
How he lost three years being angry at the Fed
How he came to be bullish on equities in 2012
How money managers become trapped by narratives
Why the Fed should actually be less, not more, conservative
Why we need someone like Joe Rogan as Fed chair

Find out guest online:

Website: hughhendryofficial.com

Twitter: @hendry_hugh

The Latest on the Global Economy’s Most Contentious Relationship Aug 11, 2020

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Today on the Brief:

Grayscale launches national digital asset TV ad campaign
Rough times for oil as Saudi Aramco sees 73% decline in revenue
Kodak crashes as government grant paused amid allegations of impropriety

Our main conversation is a look at the latest skirmishes between the United States and China, including:

U.S. sanctions on Hong Kong leaders including Carrie Lam
Retaliatory Chinese sanctions on U.S. politicians
The arrest of a pro-democracy Hong Kong media tycoon
Arrest warrants issued for six foreign Hong Kong democracy advocates
President Trump signs executive orders targeting TikTok and WeChat
Twitter enters the race to buy TikTok before the Executive Order ban takes effect
Impact on banks, the Hong Kong stock market and Huawei

How the Purpose of the Stock Market Has Changed Aug 09, 2020

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On this week’s Long Reads Sunday, NLW reads three pieces:

Public Markets Don’t Matter Like They Used To - Matt Levine in Bloomberg

A look at how public markets are less and less about accessing new capital and more about narrative and liquidity for early investors.

Two Reasons Crypto’s Bull Market Is Coming - Anil Lulla on CoinDesk

The next bull market isn’t just about the bitcoin-dollar devaluation narrative but about decentralized finance providing a solid place to redeploy existing crypto capital.

The Business Behind Marshmello - Kevin Lee on Twitter

The unlikely story of the world’s second-highest paid DJ, including a bet on anonymity, a viral billboard making fun of Instagram influencers, and a cultural cooking channel on YouTube.

The Mounting Evidence of a New Bitcoin Bull Market Aug 08, 2020

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This week’s Breakdown Weekly Recap is all about that vibe you’ve been feeling - that inescapable notion a new crypto bull market is afoot.

NLW looks at the evidence: