The Breakdown

Latest Episodes:

A Practical Utopian’s Guide to the Coming Collapse Sep 06, 2020

Show notes

Earlier this week, news broke that David Graeber, author of influential works such as “Debt: The First 5000 Years,” had passed away.

In his memory, today’s Long Reads Sunday is a reading of his 2013 piece “A Practical Utopian’s Guide to the Coming Collapse.”

In it, he argues the impact of the revolutionary period of the 1960s was much more profound than popular opinion has it, and that the age of revolution is far from complete.

Is Tesla a Stock for Suckers? Sep 05, 2020

Show notes

On this episode of The Breakdown Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the full story the stock markets are telling us about the economy, including:

SoftBank unmasked as the “Nasdaq whale” playing the same options game with stocks as r/WallStreetBets
The Tesla stock split game: Does this just mean it’s for n00bs and rubes?
The VIX shows November nervousness
Can you hear it? As stocks slide, the money printer is revving again

8 Historical Analogies That Help Explain the Madness of 2020 Sep 05, 2020

Show notes

Inspired by Michael Batnik’s “All Wrapped In One,” this episode examines eight moments from history that can help us make sense of one of the most chaotic years of our lives.

Income inequality of the Gilded Age
The election of 1896
The pandemic of 1918
The economy of 1929
The social movements of the 1960s
The stock market of 1987
The speculation of 1999
The housing market of 2006

DeFi Degens Are Crypto’s Suicide Squad Sep 04, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Traditional markets falter, led down by tech stocks
Bitcoin falls under $11,000 for the first time since July
Stablecoins mint $100m daily since mid-July

Our main discussion is about DeFi’s “degens.” NLW talks about:

The numbers behind DeFi’s recent run up
What “degen” means in this context
Why degen is in part a reaction to previous bitcoiner critiques of Ethereum
Why degen is (in even bigger part) a reaction to a no-yield, artificially low interest world

Let Them Eat Equities! The Economic Chickens Come Home to Roost, Feat. Luke Gromen Sep 03, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Debt will exceed U.S. GDP for the first time since 1946
SPACs in action!
Decentralized exchange volume flippens centralized exchanges

Our main conversation is with Luke Gromen, founder of the Forest for the Trees consulting firm.

In this conversation, we discuss:

Chairman Powell’s speech and whether this is a true policy departure
The evolving relationship between the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department
What it would mean to get China to start “footing the bill”
The gold narrative
Why stock price gains are unlikely to keep U.S. citizens satisfied with the economy for long

Find our guest online:Website: fftt-llc.comTwitter: @LukeGromen

Financial Postmodernism and the Great Inflation Debate Sep 02, 2020

Show notes

August has come to a close. In this recap and “best of” episode, NLW looks at the big themes that defined the month. Most notable was the discussion of inflation culminating in the Federal Reserve’s newly announced policy of average inflation targeting.

This episode featured commentary from:

Tony Greer - Author, Morning Navigator
Keith McCullough - CEO, Hedgeye
Chris McCann - General Partner, Race Capital
Adam Tooze - Chair of History, Columbia University
George Selgin - Director at the Cato Institute Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives
Hugh Hendry - Legend

US Stock Market Cap to GDP Reaches 190%, Eclipsing Dotcom Bubble High Sep 01, 2020

Show notes

Today’s episode of The Breakdown looks at the stories the stock market is trying to tell, including:

New all time high in total market capitalization to GDP ratio (higher than dotcom bubble)
“No precedent for how high” valuations can go
Fed denies asset bubble; intimates it wouldn’t care about asset bubbles if full unemployment comes with it
Bezos at $200,000,000,000
Percentage of stocks traded by individuals reaches all time high of 20%
Robinhood leads in FTX complaints
Buffett’s Japan trading firm bet

The Case for $500,000 Bitcoin Aug 30, 2020

Show notes

This week’s episode of Long Reads Sunday is a reading of the latest essay from Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss.

The essay looks systematically at the problems of the slate of current store-of-value assets, including the U.S. dollar, oil and gold.

The brothers argue why those assets have, or are starting to have, value in their safe haven function, while bitcoin is on the rise.

The End of an Era? Why Bitcoin and MMT Won the Week Aug 29, 2020

Show notes

On The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap, NLW looks at the shifting sands of the global economy. He says Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole this week was an argument that an era that began in the 1970s is now closing.

At the same time, he argues Powell did very little to provide a vision for what comes next. Instead, it is the alternative economic philosophies – Modern Monetary Theory on the one side, bitcoin on the other – that are attracting people for a different vision of the future.

The Anxiety Index: 4 Fear Factors Shaping the Economy Aug 29, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Skepticism around Powell’s inflation prognostications
The Tesla Stock Split Game
China’s COVID-19 vaccine maker presses countries for early adoption

Our main discussion: The Anxiety Index

We live in an economy organized around consumption and perpetual growth. In that context, factors that cause consumers to be fearful, reduce spending, increase savings, move less and generally slow down can wreak havoc.

In this episode, NLW discusses four factors shaping and driving consumer anxiety, including:

COVID-19 related concerns, both health and economic
Monetary policy questions
U.S.-China tensions
Election insecurity

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