The Breakdown

Latest Episodes:

Everything You Need to Know About Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Aug 28, 2020

Show notes

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke Thursday at the annual Jackson Hole conference convened by the Kansas City Fed, which was virtual this year due to COVID-19.

In the highly anticipated speech, Powell laid out a number of key changes to how the Fed approaches unemployment and inflation.

In this recap, NLW looks at how people reacted to the speech. On the one hand, there is disagreement between those who anticipate out of control inflation and those who think the Fed’s track record on achieving even modest inflation is abysmal. On the other, almost everyone seems to think the Fed appears run down, out of tools and increasingly looking to support from Congress.

The Battle to Get A Dictator’s Seized Millions to 62,000 Venezuelan Health Care Workers Aug 27, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief

The SEC changes accredited investor rules
Fintech and crypto investor Ribbit Capital starts $350 million SPAC
Previewing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Our main conversation is with Ruben Galindo, CEO and co-founder of Airtm.

Airtm is a global dollar account that lets users anywhere access U.S. dollars, powered by cryptocurrency infrastructure and a P2P network.

The company is currently working with Juan Guaido’s opposition government in Venezeula to attempt to distribute $18 million in funds the U.S. seized from the Maduro dictatorship.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

How Airtm works outside of the traditional banking system
Why people around the world are hungry for access to dollars
What the Health Heroes campaign is trying to achieve
How Guaido and Airtm are trying to work around the Maduro government’s attempt to suppress them

Find our guest online:Website: airtm.comTwitter: @theairtm

An Unintended Consequence of Low Interest Rates? The Big Get Bigger Aug 26, 2020

Show notes

Today’s episode of The Breakdown is an extended edition of the Brief.

NLW discusses:

The “COVID-19 vaccine trade” on Wall Street kicks markets higher
The latest on TikTok vs. the U.S. and what it means for the U.S.-China relationship
More companies move reserves from cash to bitcoin

The final topic today looks at news that some large money market funds are shifting fees from users and taking the financial hit themselves. This creates a dynamic where only the largest companies can survive long term, and reflects a key unintended consequence of low interest rates.

How Much Should We Fear Post-Crisis Debt or Inflation? Feat. Adam Tooze Aug 25, 2020

Show notes

Our guest today is Adam Tooze. Adam holds the Shelby Cullom Davis Chair of History at Columbia University and serves as director of its European Institute. He is known for his books “The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order” and “Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World.”

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Historical analogies for our present moment
Federal Reserve policy and independence
How much we should fear debt and inflation post-coronavirus
How the economic and political crisis of 2020 has changed or reinforced the trajectory of the U.S., China and Europe
Why there is no such thing as the post-American era

Find our guest online:

Website: Adamtooze.com

Twitter: @adam_tooze

Why Are Traditional Investors So Hungry for Yield Curve Control? Aug 23, 2020

Show notes

On today’s edition of The Breakdown’s Long Reads Sunday, our selections have to do with one of the hottest topics in central banking: yield curve control.

“What Is Yield Curve Control?”

The first piece is from the St. Louis Federal Reserve and is a primer on YCC, including past U.S. implementations as well as versions from Japan and Australia.

“Market Jitters Show How Much Fed Medicine Matters”

Our second piece is an op-ed about how dramatically markets reacted to this small detail from the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, and what it suggests for their desires involving YCC.

People Aren’t Buying the ‘Great American Recovery’ Narrative Aug 22, 2020

Show notes

Today on The Breakdown’s Weekly Recap:

People aren’t buying “the Great American Recovery”
Let’s stop considering the economy as one thing
Dave Portnoy doesn’t care about your principles
DeFi is the Wild West and saved only by the fact that no normie understands what the hell is going on
Bitcoin is being compared to the dollar not stocks and that’s serious progress

Winter Is Coming: Examining the Economy's Eight-Body Problem Aug 22, 2020

Show notes

The “three-body problem” is a physics issue that deals with unpredictable futures.

In a recent essay, John Mauldin argues the economy is actually experiencing an “eight-body problem.”

On today’s episode, NLW explores each of those dimensions shaping the challenge we face, including:

Central bank intervention
The destruction of the service industry
The implosion of global trade

In the end, he argues that in a world ruled by chaos, fighting to control the narrative might be the only rational move.

Read Ben Hunt’s essay “The Three-Body Problem”

The Most Pro-Bitcoin Politicians in the US Aug 21, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Markets react to FOMC notes
Taiwan blocks China streaming services
Initial jobless claims back on the rise

Our main discussion is a look at the politicians on both sides of the aisle who are pro-digital currencies and, especially, pro-bitcoin. Featuring:

Rep. Thomas Massie
Governor Jared Polis
Andrew Yang
Rep. Ted Budd
Rep. Trey Hollingsworth
Rep. Darren Soto
Rep. Stacey Plaskett
Rep. Tom Emmer
Senate Candidate Cynthia Lummis
Rep. Warren Davidson
Rep. Patrick McHenry

S&P 5 vs. S&P 500: The Real Story of the Stock Market Recovery Aug 20, 2020

Show notes

Today, NLW debuts a new format: “10 Takes in 10(ish) Minutes.”

In this analysis, he looks at 10 takes surrounding the S&P 500’s return to positive territory on the year, including:

Great American comeback
Market disconnect and widening inequality
Don’t fight the Fed
To the Stoolies go the spoils
Stock splits and SPACs
It’s Tech vs. everything else
Cantillon insiders FTW
A new era of global liquidity?
You’d have done better with gold
You’d have done a lot a lot better with bitcoin

How Excess Capital and Low Interest Rates Reshaped Silicon Valley, Feat. Chris McCann Aug 19, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Everyone turns bullish as S&P 500 nears all-time highs
Emerging market currencies are floundering
Bitcoin holding sentiment highest in two years

Our main conversation features Race Capital’s Chris McCann.

Chris was previously the founder of Startup Digest, building it to 1 million subscriptions long before email newsletters were a thing. He spent four years building the community program at Greylock before launching his own venture firm.

In this conversation, Chris and NLW discuss: