The Breakdown

Latest Episodes:

11 Numbers That Tell the Story of the Economy Right Now Aug 08, 2020

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Mainstream financial media loves reporting the stock market like it's the only economic indicator that matters. On this episode, NLW breaks down 11 numbers that together tell a much more complete story, including:

Record price of gold
Square’s bitcoin revenue
National debt as a percentage of GDP
Fall of the Turkish lira
Price of coffee, sugar and cocoa
Housing in auto demand
Anti-Chinese sentiment in the U.S.

The History, Present, and Future of Central Banks, Feat. George Selgin Aug 07, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Better news in the jobless claims this week
A new bitcoin adoption cycle?
A check in on Lebanon

Our main conversation is with Dr. George Selgin.

Dr. Selgin is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives as well as Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Georgia.

In this eye-opening conversation, he and NLW go deep on the history, present and future of central banks, including:

Why the Scottish and Canadian banking systems in the 19th century that central banks aren’t a prerequisite for stability
Why the USA’s “free banking” system wasn’t free at all
Why the instability in the late 19th century US banking system was caused by regulation, not the lack of a Fed
Why the Fed’s first decades were a disaster
Why the Fed gets more power when it underperforms
The problems with the Fed’s response to 2008
What lessons the Fed could have but didn’t learn between the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19

Find our guest online

Website: Alt-M.org

Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on Stagflation, Bitcoin and the Devalued Dollar Aug 06, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Robinhood doubles quarterly trading revenue
Square did $875 billion in bitcoin revenue in Q2 - up 600% YoY
ADP report: 167,000 jobs added in July (instead of expected 1.2 million)

Our main conversation is with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

Before building Hedgeye into a “no-excuses provider of real-time investment research and a premier online financial media company,” Keith worked at hedge funds including Carlyle Blue Wave Partners hedge fund, Magnetar Capital, Falconhenge Partners and Dawson Herman Capital Management.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Hedgeye’s “Full Cycle Investing” approach and GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) methodology
How the economy was in a period of slowing growth and slowing inflation before COVID-19
How we’ve moved into a stagflation period in response to the money printing prompted by the crisis
Why bitcoin, gold, emerging market stocks and commodities are likely to thrive in this environment
Why most narratives are BS
Why the “Old Wall” media distracts rather than educates

Check out our guest online:

Website: Hedgeye.com

Twitter: @KeithMcCullough

Can Social Media Be Redeemed? Feat. Early Facebooker-turned-Investor Bobby Goodlatte Aug 05, 2020

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Today on the Brief:

President Trump wants a cut of the TikTok deal
Previewing this week’s COVID-19 vaccine trade
Dave Portnoy breaks into bitcoin

Our main conversation is with Bobby Goodlatte.

Bobby is the founder of Form Capital, a new seed investment firm that focuses on supporting portfolio companies with value-add design.

Bobby was an early employee at Facebook and has been an active angel investor since 2012, with investments that include Coinbase.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The early days of Facebook
Why angel investors don’t like new angel investors to get involved
How Silicon Valley reflects larger questions of equity valuations
How social media has changed over the last decade
Why politics is now “downstream from algorithms”
Why there are still possibilities to build new social networks
Why today’s social networks could make different decisions that would be better for the world.

Find our guest online:

Website: Form Capital

Twitter: @rsg

The Best of the Breakdown July 2020 Aug 04, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

The TikTok-Microsoft Deal
The Twitter hacker was 17
A changing of the guard for crypto hedge funds

Our main discussion: recapping the best interviews of July 2020

Despite a huge variety of perspectives and experiences, one theme shown through in Breakdown conversations in July: the disparity between the stock market and the real economy and a growing unwillingness of people to accept their place in the order.

This show features clips from:

George Gammon - @GeorgeGammon
Daniel Lacalle - @dlacalle_IA
George Goncalves - @bondstrategist
Sahil Bloom - @SahilBloom
Tyrone Ross - @TR401
Tony Greer - @TgMacro
Jill Carlson - @jillruthcarlson
Michael Krieger - @LibertyBlitz
Sergey Nazarov - @SergeyNazarov

What Future Are We Building Bitcoin For? Aug 02, 2020

Show notes

Bitcoin started as a rebellious, anti-establishment technology. In many parts of the world, and for many people, it remains exactly that.

At the same time, however, there is a wave of traditionalists and institutional players moving into the space.

Are they buying into the revolution, or are they trying to capture value while fitting the disruption into a box that maintains the current power structure they lead?

Those are the key questions explored by Meltem Demirors in her new essay “Unintended Architecture.” The piece is our selection for this week’s “Long Reads Sunday.”

Previewing the Economic Showdowns Coming This Fall Aug 01, 2020

Show notes

On this week’s edition of The Breakdown Weekly Recap, NLW argues the big story of the week was actually a set of smaller stories that preview the faultlines and economic debates likely to absorb us in the coming months.

These include:

The Federal Reserve signaling that fiscal stimulus needs to do more
The beginning of the battles on fiscal stimulus
The introduction of the “not safe to vote” narrative
The Big Tech vs. The World fight
The beginning of coronavirus lawsuits
Back to school
Jobless claims getting worse
Kodak and reshoring

What a Professional Trader Thinks of the Fed, Robinhood and Real Estate, Feat. Tony Greer Aug 01, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

The DXY hits a 52-week low
Consumers seeking alternatives to cash
Bank of England rebuilds settlement system to work with CBDCs

Our main conversation is with trader and analyst Tony Greer. In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The Federal Reserve’s role in increasing inequality
How the Robinhood crowd differs from the 1999 bubble
Why high-frequency traders might be the real villains when it comes to the retail bubble
Why gold is surging even though the dollar remains fundamentally sound
How to navigate the disparity between markets and the real economy
Why real estate is doing well even as the economy is floundering

Find our guest online:

Website: tgmacro.com

Twitter: @TgMacro

The Bond Market Is the Truth Teller No One Listens To, Feat. George Goncalves Jul 31, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

More bad news from jobless claims and the GDP
The big tech hearing was a whole bunch of nothing; watch TikTok instead
Robinhood dives into Kodak (but so do illegal insider traders)

Our main conversation is with independent bond strategist George Goncalves.

We discuss:

How the bond market watches Federal Reserve meetings
What, if anything, was new about this week’s FOMC meeting
What it means that the bond market and equities market tell different stories
Why the bond market has been telling a long-term story of slowing growth
Whether institutional investors are actually moving away from government debt and into gold
Why Judy Shelton should have a place on the Federal Reserve

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @bondstrategist

How DeFi Could Disrupt Traditional Finance, Feat. Sergey Nazarov Jul 30, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Big tech goes to Washington
The debate on the next COVID-19 relief act heats up
More on institutional investors’ move into gold

“Imagine a world without counterparty risk.”

That was Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov’s answer when asked to describe the true disruption of decentralized finance to a traditional finance audience.

On this episode of The Breakdown, Sergey and NLW discuss:

Brand-based contracts vs. math-based contracts
The history of smart contracts
What it means to build an “abstraction layer” for “universally connected smart contracts”
Key moments in the history of smart contract infrastructure
Where smart contracts and DeFi are in terms of analogies to the early internet
Why Sergey believes traditional finance will inevitably shift to a math-based contract model

Find our guest online:

Website: Chainlink

Twitter: @SergeyNazarov

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