The Breakdown

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**The Breakdown**

The Breakdown dives into the deepest topics in crypto, blockchain, and the macro forces shaping markets and power structures. Each episode breaks down complex ideas into clear, grounded analysis — separating signal from noise across crypto, finance, and geopolitics.

Hosted by David Canellis, The Breakdown features explainers, interviews, and conversations with the people building, regulating, and challenging the financial system.

A Blockworks podcast.

Subscribe to The Breakdown newsletter: https://the-breakdown.carrd.co/

Latest Episodes:

Why the Stock Market is Poised for Its Worst September Since 2011 Sep 26, 2020

Show notes

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at the fourth painful week for traditional markets in a row.

He discusses the factors contributing to the trouble, including:

A normal correction from too-high valuations
The return of COVID-19 lockdowns
The end of easy recovery gains
Diminishing likelihood of a stimulus bill
Election volatility

Sven Henrich (NorthmanTrader) on the Ever-Weakening Economic Cycle Sep 26, 2020

Show notes

Sven Henrich is the founder and lead market strategist at NorthmanTrader. Well known for his appearances on CNBC, CNN Business and MarketWatch, Sven is also the host of the Straight Talk podcast.

In this conversation, he and NLW discuss:

The ever-weakening economic cycle
Why the Fed has boxed itself in
Why the asset price bubble is contributing to wealth inequality
How market capitalization-to-GDP reached all-time highs
What the election means for markets

Find our guest online:

Twitter: NorthmanTrader

Website: northmantrader.com

Did Corporate Insiders Perfectly Predict the Market Top? Sep 25, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Initial U.S. jobless claims up to 870,000
Partial lockdowns begin in earnest in Europe and Israel
The global demand for American stocks

Our main discussion: Did corporate insiders perfectly time the market top?

August saw the largest volume of insider selling since 2015, with more than 1000 corporate officers offloading $6.7B in stock. Subsequently, the market has seen a 10% decline since the S&P500 all time high of Sept. 2. What’s more, according to new statistics, insider selling is happening at the fastest pace since 2012.

The question is: What do these executives know that the rest of the market doesn’t?

Violent Reflexivity: Why Market Movements Are More Aggressive Than Ever, Feat. Corey Hoffstein Sep 24, 2020

Show notes

Corey Hoffstein is the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research LLC, a quantitative research and investment fund. He is also the host of the “Flirting with Models” podcast.

His most recent research is “Liquidity Cascades: The Coordinated Risk of Uncoordinated Market Participants.”

In it, he examines three popular narratives about what is driving radical swings in markets, including:

The increased role of the Fed
The rise of passive and index investing
The growth of volatility-correlated strategies

He finds that, individually, none could explain the radical market shifts we’ve seen. However, when combined, they create a market incentive loop that is causing markets to move and react to exogenous shocks more quickly and aggressively than ever before.

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @choffstein

Website: Newfound Research

Marty Bent on Why Bitcoin and Big Energy Are Unlikely Allies Sep 23, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief:

Where the digital euro fits in Lagarde’s economic integration plans
New stablecoin guidance from the OCC
Mnuchin and Powell head to the Hill

Our main discussion features Marty Bent.

Marty is the author of one of the best known daily bitcoin newsletters, as well as the host of “Tales From The Crypt” podcast. He also is one of the leaders of Great American Mining, a new project using bitcoin mining to make big energy more efficient and profitable.

In this discussion, we talk about how bitcoin and big energy are unlikely allies, how that alliance can bring more bitcoin mining back to America, and how it is working to reduce America’s energy dependence.

Find our guest online:

Twitter: @MartyBent

Twitter: @GAMdotAI

Website: https://gam.ai

The FinCEN Files Show Banks Don’t Actually Care About Stopping Money Laundering Sep 22, 2020

Show notes

Today on the Brief

Stocks down, dollar up on COVID-19 resurgence fears
People’s Bank of China says digital yuan needed to fight USD dominance
140,000 have claimed UNI tokens
Judge stops Trump WeChat ban
Nikola founder resigns

Our main discussion: The FinCEN Files

The FinCEN Files are a leaked cache of suspicious activity reports filed by banks with the U.S .Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. The more than 2,000 files, representing $2 trillion in transactions, were leaked to BuzzFeed News more than a year ago. BuzzFeed, in turn, shared them with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, who then helped distribute them to 108 publications in 88 countries.

This episode provides an overview of the leaks and explains why they show that, despite lots of PR bluster, banks are happy to file their reports and then keep on banking likely money launderers.

Lyn Alden’s Latest: Why Currency Devaluation Is Inevitable Sep 20, 2020

Show notes

On this week’s “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads macro analyst Lyn Alden’s latest: “A Century of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Inflation vs Deflation”

The article looks at:

When monetary policy is effective versus when fiscal policy needs to take over
How short-term debt cycles add up to long-term debt cycles that have very different remedies
Why long-term debt cycles inevitably end in default or devaluation
Why the conclusion of the last long-term debt cycle in the U.S. – the 1930s and 1940s – suggests that devaluation is the most likely outcome

Why the First US Crypto Bank Is a Big Deal Sep 19, 2020

Show notes

On this edition of The Breakdown weekly recap, NLW looks at:

DEXetition – Uniswap’s battle with SushiSwap heats up as the former dropped the UNI governance token in what some likened to a crypto stimulus check
The Fed has no clothes – After another FOMC meeting of “nothing new,” the mirage of Federal Reserve omnipotence is fading
TikTok and WeChat banned from U.S. app stores – Is it just a negotiating technique? Whatever the case, people are not happy
Kraken becomes a bank – What it means now that Kraken has been approved for a Wyoming Special Purpose Depository Institution charter

‘I Didn’t Buy It to Sell It. Ever.’ MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor on His $425 Million Bitcoin Bet Sep 19, 2020

Show notes

MicroStrategy made waves when it announced in early August it was moving $500,000,000 in treasury reserves out of cash. At least $250 million were to be moved into bitcoin.

Earlier this week, the company announced its final bitcoin purchases totaled $425 million.

In this conversation with NLW, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor explains:

Why he’s always treated the company with a long time horizon
Why the asset inflation rate is the real inflation rate
How he became convinced that bitcoin is the best treasury asset in the world
Why Michael believes some other companies will follow suit, but better do so quick
Why the intensity of maximalists is actually part of the reason he grew conviction around the asset
Why he would buy every bitcoin if he could

Raoul Pal: Monetary Policy Is Finished and Macro Debates Are Boring Sep 18, 2020

Show notes

Raoul Pal is CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, a platform fundamentally disrupting macroeconomics and financial media.

In this wide-ranging conversation, he and NLW discuss:

Hot takes on the most recent Jerome Powell/Federal Reserve press conference
Why central banks can’t do anything more until they merge with treasury departments
Why stablecoins are disrupting how we think about global reserve assets
Why traditional financial media missed an entire generation of investors
Why all macro debates are boring

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