Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

Is the Bottom In? | Weekly Roundup With Zaheer Ebitkar Aug 06, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark and I are joined by Zaheer Ebitkar of Ledger Prime to cover a very important question: is the crypto bottom in?

Zaheer walked us through one of the most important drivers of liquidity and price action in crypto markets today: stablecoins.

We discussed the different type of stables that exist in the market today, how they impact liquidity conditions, and how different stablecoin models are likely to be regulated.

Finally we asked Zaheer whether or not the bottom was officially in, but for that you'll have to tune into the show ;)

We also covered Michael Saylor's change in role at Microstrategy, Errol Musk's comments on his son Elon, Coinbase's partnership with Blackrock, and Meta's NFT roll out.

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Zaheer Ebtikar: https://twitter.com/SplitCapital

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

- -

Referenced in the show:

Bitcoinisdead.org

The Crypto Dollar Surge and the American Opportunity - Nic Carter:

https://tinyurl.com/2p92hydn

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Untapped Opportunities in Crypto With FTX's Amy Wu Aug 03, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Amy Wu of FTX Ventures joins the show for a discussion on the venture capital industry both in traditional markets and crypto.

After an explosion in VC funding throughout 2021, how have current market conditions effected private markets throughout 2022? As investors reconsider the valuations they are willing to pay compared to 2021, just how has this influenced funding in crypto? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Amy Wu: https://twitter.com/amytongwu

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

- -

(00:00) Introduction

(01:38) VC Landscape In 2022

(10:08) The Differences Between VC Investing In Web2 vs Web3

(13:24) Big Trends For the Future

(22:31) What Is Happening In Gaming?

(34:06) NFTs

(41:10) Final Thoughts

Has The Fed Already Caused a Recession? | On The Margin Jul 30, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, we discuss the Fed's attempt to crush all consumer demand. Mark believes we've just entered crypto spring, but that enthusiasm takes a turn as we discuss the Fed.

With two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, we can officially (or now unofficially) say we are in a recession. I got Mark's take on the Fed's actions, expected fallout and future CPI prints.

Next, we discuss the US' "friend-shoring" efforts, failed sanctions and other policy mishaps. Finally, we added a new "positivity segment" that includes our thoughts on aliens and human evolution - you'll have to tune in to find out more!

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MARGIN250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

- -

Referenced in the show:

Janet Yellen "friend-shoring"

https://tinyurl.com/2aprdz3p

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(00:32) Mark confirms crypto spring is here

(05:26) Blockworks' DAS 2022 conference

(09:53) The Fed is crushing growth

(18:52) Friend-shoring: ineffective sanctions and a multi-polar world

(22:53) Is housing the next shoe to drop?

(26:10) Changing the definition of a recession

(28:42) Listen to the bond market

(32:40) Fighting inflation & oil price manipulation

(42:06) Money is a claim on time

(49:27) Alexander Hamilton, maybe we need Maxis

(51:26) Sinister Saturday special

(54:37) Aliens, Webb telescope and human evolution

The Dark Side of a Strong US Dollar | Brent Johnson & Lawrence Lepard Jul 27, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lawrence Lepard and Brent Johnson join Mike to discuss the dark side of a strong US dollar.

We start with an overview of the US Dollar's role as the global reserve currency and how the dollar system is causing many of the problems we have today. Can the US dollar maintain its reserve status or are things falling apart?

Then, Lawrence and Brent explain how a strong US dollar is causing weakness throughout the global economy - abroad and at home. Brent shares his short to medium-term outlook based on his Milkshake Theory, and Lawrence counters with his position that the dollar will unravel at an accelerated pace.

We close with a discussion on how the Fed will act next. You don't want to miss this one!

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/

Use code MARGIN250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Follow Lawrence: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard

Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

(00:00) Introduction

(00:47) The Dollar's Role As The World's Reserve Currency

(05:03) The Dangerous Effects of a Rising Dollar

(11:58) The Dollar is a Geopolitical Tool

(22:46) The Price the US Pays For a Rising Dollar

(27:32) The Dollars' Fate

(32:20) Why Relative Currency Value Matters

(36:56) Opposing the US Empire

(44:51) How Will the Fed Get Out Of This Mess?

(48:23) Will the Dollar Implode Slowly Or Suddenly?

Bear Market Bingo: Elon Sells his Bitcoin | Weekly Roundup Jul 23, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, we discuss everyone's favorite subject: the bear market. I got Mark's take on the current bear, how it compares to previous bear markets in crypto, and what we should expect over the coming year.

Next, we took a look at who has been selling Bitcoin in May and June. The largest (forced) seller was the Luna Foundation Guard, closely followed by Elon Musk's Tesla. We spent some time discussing Tesla's sale and why Elon may have decided to do that today.

Next, we explain why things feel so divided today. Mark and I gave our take on wealth equality, the media, and hidden sets of incentives around ESG.

Finally, we added a new "positivity segment - you'll have to tune in to find out more!

Also, if anyone wants to watch my grandpa's interview, here's the link.

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) Is the worst of the crypto bear behind us?

(16:54) The Reason Tesla Liquidated Their BTC

(22:25) The Greatest Polarization in History

(34:48) The One Metric We Should All Optimize

The End Of "Peak Liquidity" | Mr. Blonde Jul 20, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Anonymous analyst Mr Blonde joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical forces driving markets in 2022.

We discuss the increasing recession signals and how they will effect earnings for the second half of 2022. With a rising dollar, 9.1% inflation, an increasingly hawkish Fed and the end of "peak liquidity", just how will all these forces effect equity markets throughout 2022? To find out, you'll have to tune!

Follow Mr. Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macro

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

Housing IS the Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428

The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks?hss_channel=tw-510529116

Current State of the Housing Market: https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/current-state-of-the-housing-market-3f2

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:45) Rising Risk Of Recession

(02:41) Heading For An Earnings Recession

(04:09) We Entered 2022 With Peak Liquidity, Peak Valuations & Peak Earnings, What Next?

(09:45) How Energy Has Impacted Earnings

(18:08) What Is Happening In Credit?

(22:52) The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks

(31:01) Housing IS The Business Cycle

(37:19) Final Thoughts

Stocks Remain Expensive Despite Rising Rates | Weekly Roundup Jul 16, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the Bitcoin market. Could crypto winter be passing and signs of crypto spring be starting to emerge?

We then move on to discuss the historic value of equities going all he way back to 1871 vs now in 2022. With still elevated P/E's, is there more pain to come for equities despite rising rates? We draw parallels between the 2001 tech bubble which also saw high energy prices, a rising dollar and rising yields.

Finally, we break down the recent 9.1% CPI print and if we could be in for a period of secular inflation. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball Is Causing Liquidity Stress | Lyn Alden Jul 13, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins the show. Lyn begins by explaining the energy shock she spotted in 2021 walking through her most recent piece "Energy: The Area Under the Curve".

Lyn then shares her outlook on the U.S Dollar wrecking ball as the DXY breaches 20 year highs trading over 108. How will a rising U.S Dollar effect the chances of a recession, stress in credit markets and more importantly U.S treasury market liquidity? Could this be "checkmate" for the Fed? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Lyn: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

Energy: The Area Under the Curve: https://www.lynalden.com/the-area-under-the-curve/

Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ

Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:51) Energy: The Area Under the Curve

(04:50) Energy Crisis In Europe

(07:58) Are Rising Energy Prices Leading To A Recession?

(14:09) Should We Expect An Earnings Recession?

(16:53) Signs Of Stress In The Treasury Market

(20:36) Fireblocks Ad

(21:55) Can The Fed Really Tighten?

(28:14) How A U.S Dollar Spike Could Lead To Treasury Market Illiquidity

(34:08) Universal Basic Income

(41:52) The Decade Ahead

Straining Markets Lead To Political Turmoil | Weekly Roundup Jul 09, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off discussing the recent volatility in crypto markets. We then move on to discussing the bailouts in crypto by SBF and the comparisons between CeFi vs DeFi.

Mark and I then touch on the Fed's quantitative tightening & balance sheet reduction, rising interest rates, record high inflation and how tightening into a recession is causing political strife across the globe discussing some very striking headlines over the past week.

Finally, we touch on leverage, volatility & the best hedge fund performers of the past year including Bridgewater's 32% gains for the first half of 2022. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Which Assets Win When Inflation Hits? | Jim Bianco Jul 06, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin," Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins the show for a discussion on inflation. Arguing that we are "entering an era of persistent inflation", Jim walks through the biggest winners in this market environment.

After correctly predicting the Fed's hawkish stance ahead of most analysts, Jim shares his thoughts on the bond market pricing in a pivot throughout 2023. Jim goes on to walk through the bond market turmoil with the worst H1 performance being recorded since 1787.

Finally, Jim speaks on the contagion in crypto comparing the differences between DeFi protocols and CeFi lenders. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger vents about Ohio chip plant delay: 'It's such a pivotal moment. Please don't dither in Congress.' https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/intel-ceo-on-ohio-chip-plant-delay-please-dont-dither-in-congress.html

Walmart Says Reducing Inventory Glut Will Take 'Couple Quarters': https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-03/walmart-says-reducing-inventory-glut-will-take-couple-quarters

Russell Clark: Brace For Structurally Higher Inflation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfdFNVsf2t0

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

(00:00) Introduction

(02:00) "The Fed's Credibility Is On The Line"

(05:55) Entering An Era Of Persistent Inflation

(15:00) Which Assets Win When Inflation Hits?

(24:45) Fireblocks Ad

(26:02) The Bond Market Expects A Pivot In 2023

(35:30) Contagion In Crypto

(47:05) Could Stablecoins Cause Systemic Risk?