Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

Dario Perkins: The New Macro Supercycle Sep 07, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Dario Perkins MD of global macro at TS Lombard joins the show for a discussion on the new macro supercycle.

As de-globilization increasingly becomes one of the key forces driving markets, Dario walks through one of his recent pieces titled "The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks". Drawing historical comparisons between today's economy with both the 1940's & 1970's, Dario describes the setup we now have for a new macro regime, and how central banks are viewing this current environment.

This episode is full of insights you can't afford to miss to help navigate this new macro regime, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

Dario Perkins: Watch Out for Another 20% Drop in Equities: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7GSVdwJVQIje5mv1wuUefw?si=638b3f549e32414e

Capital Wars, Liquidity & The Rise of China | Michael Howell: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5wNLkFpnxSHjnlcgPf4siP?si=a44b7638fcc142ea

The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks

Euro, Stocks Tumble as Russia Pulls Rug on Gas Supplies: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-04/intensifying-energy-shock-to-weigh-on-euro-test-ecb-on-rates?srnd=premium-europe

(00:00) Introduction

(00:20) The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks

(03:54) Comparisons Between The 1940's & 1970's

(07:52) The New Macro Supercycle

(13:32) Fake Recession, Fake Business Cycle

(19:52) Inflation, Europe & Natural Gas

(22:36) Big Tech/FAANG: A Return To Value?

(26:22) The Cost of Living Crisis

(29:53) Avoiding A Euro Crisis 2.0

(33:08) The Role of Central Banks

(41:42) Embracing Higher Volatility

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Has The Bear Market Rally Exhausted Itself? | Weekly Round Up Sep 03, 2022

Show notes

Mark returns on this episode of the round up, and after briefly discussing the matter with Jack last week, I decided to check in with Mark on his thoughts on the US Bond Market. We transition then into talking about the housing market, the soaring fixed mortgage rates, and the lag in home prices that follows. Next I get Mark's thoughts on the recent bear rally, before closing out our round up with mixed feelings on the recent decision about student debt forgiveness.

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

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Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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Michael Howell: Capital Wars, Liquidity & The Rise of China Aug 31, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Michael Howell CEO of Crossborder Capital joins the show for a discussion on the number one force driving markets, liquidity.

Discussing Michael's book titled "Capital Wars: The Rise of Global Liquidity", Howell walks through the role of global liquidity, increasing debt and volatility on today's financial system. Have these three factors made our financial system more susceptible to central bank intervention and financial crises?

Tune in to hear this discussion & much more!

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Follow Michael Howell https://twitter.com/crossbordercap

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

WTO successfully concludes negotiations on China's entry https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres01_e/pr243_e.htm

Transcript: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the next steps for Russia sanctions and ‘friend-shoring’ supply chains https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/transcript-us-treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-on-the-next-steps-for-russia-sanctions-and-friend-shoring-supply-chains/

Suez Crisis https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/suez-crisis

Russian gas in Germany: A complicated 50-year relationship https://www.dw.com/en/russian-gas-in-germany-a-complicated-50-year-relationship/a-61057166

(00:00) Introduction

(00:25) The Rise of Global Liquidity

(06:25) China Entering The WTO

(12:28) How A Lack of Liquidity Leads To Financial Crises

(19:20) Is Europe The Canary In The Coal Mine?

(30:06) Bretton Woods, World Trade & The Role of The U.S Dollar

(40:00) Capital Wars Between The U.S & China

(44:53) Current Market Liquidity & Outlook

The DeFi Credit Boom | Season One Pilot Aug 30, 2022

Show notes

Blockworks just released a new podcast called Bell Curve! We're dropping the pilot episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup.

Season one of Bell Curve revolves around our DeFi credit boom thesis. Simply put, CeFi's implosion will create a DeFi credit boom that will bring new users and fixed-rate lending markets to DeFi.

What products will be created? Who will be the users of these products? Where will capital flow first?

These are a few of the questions we'll explore as we put our thesis to the test. Join Jason and Mike in this season one pilot episode, where we provide context for our thesis and explain what you should expect in the upcoming episodes.

If you consider yourself a curious degen, builder or investor: this show is for you.

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Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz

Follow Bell Curve: https://twitter.com/thebellcurvepod

Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9

Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3pQTfmD

Subscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Powell Prepares Markets For "Greater Pain" | Weekly Round Up Aug 27, 2022

Show notes

This week we're joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley! We begin by discussing our takes on the recent announcement concerning student loan forgiveness, before pivoting to what we predict will be heard at the Jackson Hole meeting.

After that we move into a discussion about energy prices in Europe, with Germany as a focal point. Jack then speaks on the state of China's real estate market. Finally we round out the episode with talks of the bad start to bonds this year and what the means for the rest of the year to come.

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Jack Farley: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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Luke Gromen: U.S Dollar's Role In The Global Energy Crisis Aug 24, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Luke Gromen Founder & President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar's role in the global economy.

After spending the past number of years outlining his thesis and the importance energy plays in being the global reserve currency issuer, now was the perfect time to get Luke back on the show to break down some of the tectonic geopolitical changes that have occurred throughout 2022.

From energy shortages in Europe to Russian FX sanctions and now rising tensions in Taiwan, the U.S Dollar sits at the very centre of this discussion. This is an episode you can't afford to miss and will find yourself watching over and over again as we attempt to understand the geopolitical & macro landscape.

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Follow Luke Gromen: https://twitter.com/LukeGromen

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

Twilight in the Desert: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight_in_the_Desert

Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States: https://bit.ly/3QEY91I

California Turns To China For New Bay Bridge: https://www.npr.org/2011/09/16/140515737/california-turns-to-china-for-new-bay-bridge?t=1661252480276

Don’t forget the golden rule: whoever has the gold makes the rules: https://reaction.life/dont-forget-the-golden-rule-whoever-has-the-gold-makes-the-rules/

The Quiet Coup: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/the-quiet-coup/307364/

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:38) The Post Bretton Woods System

(11:09) Peak Cheap Energy

(20:55) The U.S. Industrial Manufacturing Base, The End of Globalization?

(26:09) The Closing of Russia's FX Reserves

(33:30) The Energy Crisis In Europe

(34:46) Gold & Bitcoin: "The Last Functioning Fire Alarm"

(40:00) The U.S. Entitlements & Balance Sheet

(46:38) Rising Inequality

(51:14) The Quiet Coup: Privatizing The Gains & Socializing The Losses

(57:14) Final Thoughts

The GDP Growth Illusion | Weekly Round Up Aug 20, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark and I discuss the repercussions of the Fed’s attempt to contrive certainty in financial markets.

We start the discussion by looking at the US’ long-term GDP growth. The chart looks great, but is the Fed’s market manipulation setting us up for a surprise? Inflation and record-high debt are just two symptoms of the Fed’s attempt to create certainty in entropic markets.

We then talk about this week’s FOMC minutes and reflect on current market conditions. Why are certain speculative assets pumping when most equities are tanking? We are in a thinly traded market, and more volatility is on the horizon.

Finally, we discuss how a 20yr old just made $100M on Bed Bath & Beyond. Tune in for these stories and more!

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

20-Year-Old Student Acquires 6% Of Bed Bath & Beyond, Makes $110 Million In 3 Weeks: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sureal-story-20-year-old-student-acquires-6-bed-bath-beyond-makes-110-million-3-weeks

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

The Fed Is Creating Hollow Markets | Mike Green & Ben Hunt Aug 17, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory and Mike Green Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management join the show for a discussion around one of Ben's recent articles "Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World".

Ben and Mike compare household net worth and GDP which substantially diverged post 1990 when Alan Greenspan was Federal Reserve Chairman. Post Greenspan saw Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell take the role of Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Ben highlights that "emergency government action always becomes permanent government policy". Just how has the era of QE influenced inflation, the U.S economy & wealth inequality. To find out, you'll have to tune in!

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mike Green: https://twitter.com/profplum99

Follow Ben Hunt: https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World: https://www.epsilontheory.com/hollow-men-hollow-markets-hollow-world-2/

The Three-Body Problem: https://www.epsilontheory.com/three-body-problem/

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:38) Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World

(14:57) Central Bank Hubris

(22:38) Searching For Simple Solutions To Complex Issues

(31:38) Gresham's Law Of Information

(45:47) The End Of A Regime

Coinbase Marks A $1B Loss | Weekly Round Up Aug 13, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark and I cover this week's CPI print, the state of macro, Coinbase’s earnings miss, and a historical US ban on an Ethereum privacy protocol.

We start with a discussion on the lower-than-expected CPI print, deglobalization and ask if the FED still thinks they can provide a soft landing.

We then dive into Coinbase’s Q2 earnings and $1B reported loss. Can Coinbase establish a sustainable business model? The numbers don’t look great, but there’s reason to believe they can turn the ship around.

Finally, we discuss the US Treasury's Tornado Cash ban and the secondary effects across DeFi.

Tune in for these stories and more!

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Inflation Is Driving Demand For UBI | Jordi Alexander Aug 10, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital joins the show to discuss how inflation is driving demand for UBI.

We begin discussing Jordi's outlook for the rest of 2022 with a major focus on the U.S Dollar and how the rising dollar could lead to liquidity problems. Drawing parallels to 2020, when the Fed extended U.S Dollar swap lines all around the world, Jordi explains how this dynamic could further exacerbate the publics demand for UBI.

We then close the discussion looking at the cycles of inflation, crypto markets and Jordi's outlook for markets through the rest of the year, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Jordi Alexander: https://twitter.com/gametheorizing

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

Federal Reserve announces bilateral swap lines: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200319b.htm

Main Street Lending Program: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/mainstreetlending.htm

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) Jordi's Framework For 2022

(02:57) The U.S. Dollar