Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

It’s Not Just Inflation, The Fed’s Lost Control | Round Up Oct 15, 2022

Show notes

The CPI print just came out, and prices are hot. This week's roundup explores the implications of high inflation, what it means for company earnings and what to expect next.

Has the Fed lost control? Is this the fault of current or prior regimes? Where are rates headed? Is QE coming back? Tune in to find out!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:36) Update, Bitcoin Is Still A Volatile Asset

(09:46) CPI Print Hot Hot Hot

(17:42) Entitlement & Earnings Trouble

(23:17) More Rate Hikes?

(30:54 The Fed’s Failure

(52:47) Restarting QE

(59:52) Exporting Inflation, Will It Continue?

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

"The Committee To Save The World"

http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19990215,00.html

Bilderberg Group's Connection To Everything In The World

https://bit.ly/3CYEoxP

Rubicon (book)

https://amzn.to/3fX8uIP

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Earnings Season Will Be Very Bad | Weekly Round Up Oct 08, 2022

Show notes

As Mike is away on holiday, Blockworks' very own Jack Farley, host of Forward Guidance, steps in for a discussion on the top stories of the week.

On the back of a labor market report, Jack and Mark break down what this means for markets, the outlook for inflation, Ray Dalio's shift in sentiment from his infamous statement "cash is trash" and finally we discuss the turmoil in U.K gilt markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) The Labor Market Is... Strong?!

(10:24) When Will Inflation Go Down?

(21:55) Is Cash "Trash"?

(30:13) Is The Stock Market Still Overvalued?

(33:49) China

(38:10) Importance of Doubling Down on Your Winners

(41:28) The Bank of England's Rescue of the U.K. Gilt Market

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Julian Brigden: The End of Hyper-Financialization Oct 05, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners for a discussion on the hyper-financialization of the U.S economy, and how that trend may now be in reverse.

Looking back at historic periods of both monetary and fiscal policy being enacted together, Julian was able to identify the trend of inflation at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Since positioning for the equity market correction towards the back end of 2021, Julian shares his thoughts on the current state of markets. Are equity markets oversold, or does this bear market have further to go? What cracks are starting to form in the housing market? Is this the end of hyper-financialization and is de-globalization at a tipping point? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter

Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

Referenced In The Show:

How Bad Will the German Recession Be?

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) A Shift In Inflation

(13:09) CEO Compensation

(20:23) The Housing Market

(33:05) Circle Ad

(34:25) Powell Is Channeling His Inner Volcker

(39:54) What Is Happening In Europe?

(46:27) We Are At A Tipping Point

U.S Dollar Is Starting To Break Things | Mike McGlone Sep 30, 2022

Show notes

Recorded on Monday 26th: Before the BoE's Gilt announcement

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg joins the the show for a wide ranging discussion. As the U.S Dollar continues rising, markets are beginning to crack. Is there any end in sight for economies around the world?

We also discuss what is happening in energy, commodity and crypto markets. How will oil perform ahead of mid term elections in the U.S? Is gold set for a move higher? And have crypto markets felt enough pain or is more to come? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:33) What Is Happening With The British Pound?

(14:32) Gasoline & Biden's Approval Rating

(17:41) How Energy Is Effecting Global Currencies

(20:14) Circle Ad

(21:33) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball

(31:02) Gold

(36:32) Which Countries Are Positioned To Outperform?

(42:05) Final Thoughts

Doomberg: An Update On Europe's Energy Crisis Sep 28, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken, joins the the show for an update on the European energy crisis.

After making bold claims throughout 2021 on the global energy situation, and particularly in Europe, Doomberg provides an update on the state of the European energy crisis. How severe will the impact of high energy prices be for Europe ahead of winter, particularly global manufacturing hubs such as Germany? Finally, Doomberg discusses the effect of energy on currencies around the world, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Doomberg: https://twitter.com/DoombergT

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:57) Doomberg's Core Energy Thesis

(07:01) The Energy Situation In Europe

(10:15) The Law of Antilogic

(13:55) Energy Price Controls

(17:18) How Energy Is Effecting Currencies

(19:41) The Dollar Wrecking Ball

(22:52) Circle Ad

(24:13) Powell Will Hike Until Something Breaks

(27:52) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied

(30:44) What Is Happening In China?

(35:58) Entering A Period of Stagflation

Markets Brace For A Hard Landing | Weekly Round Up Sep 24, 2022

Show notes

As central banks around the world further increased interest rates, everyone looked to the most important central bank in markets, and that's the Fed. Powell raised by an expected 75bp on Wednesday, signalling "it will be enough". Markets were confused after the initial announcement, but selling increased hours after the announcement, not holding up until Friday's session. Are markets bracing for a hard landing? To find out, you'll just have to tune in!

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

The "Super Bowl" For Central Banking | Jack Farley Sep 21, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jack Farley, friend of the show and Host of another Blockworks podcast “Forward Guidance”, joins the show for a discussion on the central banking super bowl.

As over 20 central banks around the world decide their key policy rates this week, including the Fed, BoE & SNB, we invited Jack to the show to share his thoughts on what this means for equities, bonds & most importantly inflation. In Jack’s mind, there was no doubt the Fed was “behind the curve”, but are they also “looking in the rear view mirror?” as they aim to slay the inflation dragon? To find out, you’ll just have to tune in!

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

Powell Won't Stop "Until The Job Is Done" | Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1JZdcUsIivVSuIuF7q4Q7v?si=196c1d9a9b2f496b

The Bear Market Has Only Just Begun | Ted Oakley: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2jx2I7cwDREUXAWDfdWUtX?si=0a00efc3ac3a48b5

Is a Global Recession Imminent? https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-recession

(00:00) Introduction

(00:43) The Superbowl of Central Banking

(02:25) Slowing Growth & Soaring Inflation

(03:40) Are We Heading For A Soft Landing?

(11:25) Is The Fed Looking In The Rear View Mirror?

(16:15) Is Inflation a Psychological or a Monetary Phenomenon?

(18:15) Signs of Liquidity Stress In The Treasury Market

(23:50) IMF: Is a Global Recession Imminent?

(24:50) Circle Ad

(26:10) Has Inflation Peaked?

(35:40) Stanley Druckenmiller Warns There Is A “High Probability” The Stock Market Will Be “Flat” For A Decade

(37:32) What To Expect Ahead of FOMC?

FedEx CEO Warns of A "Worldwide Recession" | Weekly Round Up Sep 17, 2022

Show notes

After uniting at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, Mike & Mark are back to reflect on the conference and dive into the top stories of the week.

Markets had their biggest one day sell-off in almost 2 years due to a higher than expected inflation print, FedEX CEO Raj Subramaniam warns of a "worldwide recession" and the Ethereum merge is successfully deployed. Luckily Mike & Mark are on hand to break it all down, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Danielle DiMartino Booth: Powell Won't Stop "Until The Job Is Done" Sep 14, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the Fed and the policy decisions they face throughout 2022 & into 2023.

Last time Danielle joined the show, it was January, at the beginning of the year, as it had become clear the Fed stayed too loose, for too long. In that conversation, we discussed what Fed rate hikes would mean for the economy, markets, inflation & housing. Now, nine months later, it felt right to invite Danielle back to the show to reflect on the past year from a former Fed insider, and look forward for the rest of the year as Powell tries to reiterate his hawkish stance to the markets. Will they finally get the message? Is this the end of the Fed put? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

(00:00) Introduction

(02:56) The "Fed Put"

(05:56) Jerome Powell's Paul Volcker Moment

(07:31) What To Expect Ahead of the Next FOMC Meeting

(09:22) Liz Truss's Energy Bailout Plan

(11:32) Which Leading Indicators Should You Follow?

(14:47) Housing IS The Business Cycle

(20:30) Quiet Quitting & Work From Home

(25:49) Circle Ad

(27:09) What Is Happening in the Labor Market?

(34:20) Looking Forward, What To Expect Throughout 2022?

(39:43) The Need For A Modern Day G.I. Bill

Ethereum Merge: Buy the Rumor, Sell the News? | Weekly Round Up Sep 10, 2022

Show notes

This week we discuss one of the biggest news stories in crypto markets as investors await one of the most anticipated events in years, the Ethereum merge.

As many grapple with the bull & bear case for the Eth merge, Mark & Mike discuss how they see the merge playing out from their perspective. Could this be a classic case of Buy the Rumor, Sell the News? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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