Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

The FTX Collapse Spreads To Genesis | Weekly Round Up Nov 19, 2022

Show notes

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued fallout of FTX. Genesis, the crypto prime broker, ran into liquidity issues during the week causing many yield providing platforms to reduce their yields to 0%. We discuss what this could mean for CeFi lending providers, and who it could effect next. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://onthemargin.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Juliette Declercq: The Fed Will Get Their Soft Landing Nov 16, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Juliette Declercq Founder of JDI Research joins the show for a discussion on the Fed tightening cycle.

Contrary to many analysts, Juliette expects a soft landing in 2023 with the labor market remaining resilient as the Fed continues tightening. Juliette makes the case that inflation will continue to roll over throughout 2022 and into 2023, continuing the recent CPI & PPI prints that beat analyst expectations. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:31) Preparing For A Soft Landing

(04:54) Inflation

(09:46) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle

(13:52) Powell Channeling His Inner Volcke

(17:09) The Housing Market

(23:16) Circle Ad

(24:36) The Bullwhip Effect

(31:33) Have We Reached A Bottom In Stocks?

(44:06) Inflation In The US vs Europe

Jim Bianco & Mark Yusko: The Inside Story Behind FTX's Fall | Weekly Round Up Nov 14, 2022

Show notes

This week, Mark & Mike are joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research to discuss the fallout of FTX. Mike, Mark & Jim discuss the series of events leading up to the bankruptcy of FTX and how the events evolved throughout the week.

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Jordi Alexander & Justin Bons: Bitcoin Debate: Does Bitcoin Have Utility? Nov 09, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital & Justin Bons Founder & CIO of Cyber Capital for a Bitcoin debate.

Having opposing views on the long term sustainability of Bitcoin, Jordi & Justin debate if Bitcoin has long term staying power and discuss the value propositions of other cryptocurrencies. Does Bitcoin have utility, is it's long term security model sustainable, what are the pros and cons of Proof of Work vs Proof of Stake and is Bitcoin immaculate conception enough to warrant it's spot as the number one cryptocurrency. To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) Jordi & Justin's Bitcoin Framework

(05:29) Does Bitcoin Have Utility?

(09:46) What Is Money?

(17:12) Inflationary vs Deflationary Money

(29:53) Bitcoin's Immaculate Conception

(33:58) Bitcoin's Long Term Security Model

(39:11) Circle Ad

(40:31) Proof of Work vs Proof of Stake

(49:03) Bitcoin's Blocksize Limit

(1:02:25) Final Thoughts

Powell Remains Hawkish, "Premature To Think About Pausing" | Weekly Round Up Nov 05, 2022

Show notes

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the Fed rate hike decision of 75bp. As markets interpreted the announcement as dovish and a catalyst for a small rally in risk assets, Powell's press conference walked back any dovish bias investors had. Powell made clear to markets, they had no intention of slowing down their tightening "until the job is done".

All eyes remain on the labor market as an indicator for when the Fed's tightening will begin to materialise. The unemployment data came out as this episode was recorded so Mike & Mark break it down in real time. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Darius Dale: Progressing Through The Fed Tightening Cycle Nov 02, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Darius Dale CEO of 42 Macro joins the show for a discussion on the Fed's tightening cycle.

By tracking the effects of liquidity on financial markets, Darius shares his framework for assessing the current tightening cycle the Fed is embarked on in their quest to fight inflation. While 2020 and 2021 saw markets soar to new highs in a liquidity cycle & growth upturn, 2022 has seen the opposite as the liquidity cycle downturns. In order to understand the market cycle, you must first understand the liquidity cycle, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle: https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/an-update-from-our-cios-progressing-through-the-tightening-cycle

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:57) The Liquidity Cycle

(07:58) Where Are We In The Liquidity Cycle?

(16:12) The Fed Is Looking In The Rear View Mirror

(19:24) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle

(24:08) Circle Ad

(25:27) Tracking The Inflation Cycle

(34:17) Measuring Liquidity Using The GRID Framework

(40:45) Final Thoughts: Darius' Outlook On Markets

Big Tech Wreck As Earnings Disappoint | Weekly Round Up Oct 29, 2022

Show notes

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the sell-off in big tech as earnings and guidance disappoint. With Meta & Amazon down over 20% in after hours just what is big tech signalling to the rest of the market? We then discuss Meta's pivot to the metaverse, wether this is a good long term bet and what is next for big tech?

Finally, we discuss what is happening in the Bitcoin mining industry as some mining firms announced being unable to repay their creditors. To hear all the top stories of this week, you'll have to tune in!

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Leland Miller: Xi Jinping Signals A New Era For China Oct 26, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Leland Miller CEO of China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on China after their 20th party congress.

Markets plunged on Monday after Xi Jinping clearly signalled to the world a new era within China. Leland walks through the paradigm shift in China's growth model going forward and how this spills-over into politics, economics, business and everything in between. Expecting a "slower, healthier" level of growth going forward, Leland helps investors walk through the new landscape he has been identifying for many years to come, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:06) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed

(10:45) The Evergrande Fallout

(15:02) Targeting "Common Prosperity" The New Social Contract In China

(22:30) Circle Ad

(23:50) China's Zero Covid Policy

(29:38) Xi Jinping Signals A New Era For China

(33:10) Chinese Markets Slide On Monday's Open

(38:20) China vs U.S

(43:52) The Strategic Importance of Taiwan

(51:08) Final Thoughts

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Bitcoin Searches For A Bottom...And A New Narrative | Weekly Round Up Oct 22, 2022

Show notes

This week, Mark & Mike discuss everything happening in the crypto markets. As Bitcoin holds steady bouncing around $20,000, should investors expect "crypto spring", or not? Mark shares his insights into the Metcalfe law model that Tim Peterson came on the show in February to discuss.

Mark & Mike also discuss Sam Bankman-Fried's proposed DeFi regulation, their broader outlook on the economy & much more. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

Possible Digital Asset Industry Standards: https://www.ftxpolicy.com/posts/possible-digital-asset-industry-standards

Eric Basmajian: An Update On The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown Oct 19, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Eric Basmajian Founder of EPB Macro Research joins the show for an update on his "Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown" episode of On The Margin released in April of 2022.

Since Eric made that call in April, things have accelerated, so we invited Eric back to the show for a discussion on how the most important economic signals are pointing to a further slowdown throughout 2022 and into 2023. What does the record tightening in monetary policy mean for the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy such as housing? How will that in turn effect consumption and spending? And will all of these factors combined lead to a recession into the new year? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6dwcJVX8vUm5gY0bwTvdXE?si=7b81b2b4506d4ce9

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) The Four Stages of An Economic Slowdown

(14:53) Preparing For A Revision In Earnings

(19:07) Preparing For A Hard Landing