Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

All Eyes On Inflation: "A Pause Is Not A Pivot" | Weekly Round Up Jan 21, 2023

Show notes

This week, Mike & Mark are joined by James Davolos Portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics for a debate on all things inflation. At the end of the day, will team transitory will be proven right into 2023? After hearing last weeks episode, James reached out to engage in a friendly debate with Mark as he has a slightly different view on the inflation dynamics into 2023.

We then move on to the mounting pressures in housing as KKR, Blackstone & Starwood limit withdrawals to their REIT products. Mark reflects on the 2007/08 period and what similarities, if any, we can make today in 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

U.S Dollar's Role In The Great Power Competition | Michael Kao Jan 18, 2023

Show notes

On today's episode of On the Margin, Michel Kao joins the show for a discussion on the U.S Dollar and its role in the great power competition.

Michael outlines his thesis for an upcoming paper on the U.S Dollar looking at the geopolitical significance of the Dollar and the four key economic pillars of which is stands upon. As many have called for the demise of the U.S Dollar, Michael sees the current rules based order continuing, despite the less favourable policies the U.S has enacted. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Michael Kao: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Referenced In The Show:

Inflation/USD Wrecking Ball-Who's Gonna Out-Hawk the Fed?: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1613279643754463232

Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System: https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/money-and-empire/money-and-empire/E9C856CAE32893E703C9BF474511A046

Sanctions book – Backfire: Agathe Demarais: https://agathedemarais.com/sanctions-book-backfire/

Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology: https://www.christophermiller.net/semiconductors-1

Acquired: TSMC: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tsmc/id1050462261?i=1000534514877

The Geopolitical Mosh Pit: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1589253118268944386

Sir James Goldsmith Presciently Explaining Globalization in 1994: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKe38mVpHgk

Rubicon: The Last Years of the Roman Republic: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/91017.Rubicon

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:17) The Primacy of the US Dollar And Its Role In the Great Power Competition

(04:04) Economic Pillars of National Power: Geography, Natural Resources & Industrial Capacity

(16:56) The Aftermath of Bretton Woods

(32:38) The Geopolitics of U.S Dollar Sanctions, Semiconductors & Energy Policy

(47:38) Energy Independence, The Dollar Wrecking Ball & Inflation

(59:35) Permissionless Ad

(1:00:20) The U.S Dollar Dutch Disease

(1:15:34) The Great Power Competition & Rules Based Order

(1:23:33) A Summary of The Great Power Competition Between The U.S & China

Turns Out... Inflation Was Transitory | Weekly Round Up Jan 14, 2023

Show notes

This week, Mark and Mike discuss all things macro as they break down this weeks CPI release. Taking a deep dive into all the elements of the CPI bucket, Mark expects inflation to continue falling throughout 2023. Will team transitory ultimately be proven right? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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Will Clemente & Dylan LeClair | Bitcoin & Macro: 2023 Outlook & 2022 Year In Review Jan 12, 2023

Show notes

On today's episode of On the Margin, Will Clemente and Dylan LeClair join Mike to discuss Bitcoin's 2023 outlook. Bitcoin is a liquidity gauge, and the markets are drying up. We explore what we expect from macro, how the Fed will respond and what this means for crypto, bonds and currency markets. Will and Dylan then explain Bitcoin's correlation to macro, why Bitcoin has "failed" to be an inflation hedge and their (bullish) investment thesis.

Finally, we close with a conversation on Bitcoin miners, Silvergate/Genesis and projections for crypto in 2023!

Follow Will: https://twitter.com/WClementeIII

Follow: Dylan https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Referenced In The Show:

Reflexivity Research's 2022/2023 Report

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ET__oUi5LeoKBxX2pBZu0FL9AaQ9B56R/view

Reflexivity Research

https://www.reflexivityresearch.com/

Bitcoin Magazine

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/

Felix on Forward Guidance

https://bit.ly/3Zx0CAj

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:51) The 2022 Leverage Unwind

(05:06) Tailwinds or Headwinds on the Horizon?

(12:09) How Japan Could Trigger a Black Swan Event

(14:31) Currency Markets vs Bond Markets

(17:47) It’s All a Liquidity Game

(22:59) The Macro and Crypto Correlation

(32:44) Permissionless Ad

(33:28) Bitcoin’s Inflation Hedge Narrative

(41:40) Bitcoin Miner Dynamics

(52:38) Silvergate and Genesis

(1:00:57) Crypto’s 2023 Outlook

Mark Yusko's Big Calls For 2023 | Weekly Roundup Jan 07, 2023

Show notes

This week, Mark is back for the first On The Margin weekly roundup of 2023! What better way to kick off the new year than with an outlook for the year ahead in markets. As 2022 was dominated by central banks tightening in an attempt to tame inflation, how will these dynamics play out in 2023, and how will they impact asset prices from stocks, bonds, commodities and crypto. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Permissionless is the brainchild of Blockworks and Bankless. Over 5,500 people attended the inaugural event in 2022, making Permissionless the world’s largest DeFi conference. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when purchasing tickets using this link: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Crypto's 2022 Year End Review | Matt Fiebach Jan 04, 2023

Show notes

On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by one of Blockworks' very own research analysts Matt Fiebach for a deep dive on their most recent report "2022 Year End Review: Network Coverage, Layer 1s & 2s".

Matt walks us through the top stories of the year from the Ethereum merge, to the Layer 1 wars, and the various narratives the year saw in crypto markets. We then deep dive into the contagion crypto experienced with 3AC, FTX and other CeFi lenders throughout 2022. Finally, Matt looks ahead to 2023, sharing with us his big calls for what lies ahead for crypto markets in the year to come, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Matt: https://twitter.com/MattFiebach

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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research using this link: https://blockworks.co/get-research/

Referenced In The Show:

2022 Year End Review: Network Coverage, Layer 1s & 2s: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/research/2022-in-review-network-coverage-layer-1s-and-2s

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:55) The Ethereum Merge

(06:05) Narratives In Crypto

(08:21) Layer 1s & 2s In 2022

(12:35) The Investment Case For Layer 2s

(19:01) The Cosmos Ecosystem

(27:43) Alternative L1s: Solana, Avalanche & Aptos

(42:35) Network Infrastructure: Oracles & Bridges

(46:28) Matt's 2023 Outlook For Crypto

A 2023 Global Macro Outlook | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves Dec 31, 2022

Show notes

Jack Farley, host of Forward Guidance, welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that “transitory will die” and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high.

Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets.

Follow George Goncalves on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategist

Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Forward Guidance On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3WDa6b5

Follow Forward Guidance On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3hXQu2F

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Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Brent Johnson: U.S Dollar's Role In The Fourth Turning Dec 28, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Brent Johnson CEO of Santiago Capital for a discussion on the macro forces that drove markets in 2022 and what to expect heading into 2023.

The story of 2022 was the U.S Dollar says Brent, long known for his "Dollar milkshake theory". With the Dollar surging all throughout 2022, Brent walks through the effect it had on other markets from bonds, equities and Gold. Warning of the bear market rallies of 2022, Brent remains cautious on risk assets heading into 2023 as the Fed continues tightening financial conditions.

Finally, Brent shares his outlook for 2023 where he expects more volatility, uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Sharing his view through the lens of The Fourth Turning, Brent highlights the most important factors to pay attention to in 2023 and beyond, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:16) The Macro Story of 2022

(03:55) The Fed Will Continue Raising Rates Into 2023

(06:33) Did The Fed Loose Credibility In 2022?

(11:08) Everybody's Looking At The Fed, What About Other Central Banks?

(16:01) What Is Happening With The BoJ?

(26:15) We Are In The Heart of Triffin's Dilemma

(32:29) The Fourth Turning

(40:50) Brent's Big Calls For 2023

Crypto in 2023: Predictions Episode | Weekly Round Up Dec 24, 2022

Show notes

In today’s episode of On The Margin, we bring on Jason and Santi from Empire to discuss our 2023 crypto thesis. We debate predictions on the Wallet Wars, ETH vs Bitcoin, the rise of insurance, app-specific vertical integration, the adoption of CBDCs, Coinbase vs DEXs, MEV as a business model and more!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:30) Crypto’s 2022 Wrapped

(12:18) The Bottom is in for Crypto, not for Equities

(19:46) Kings of Spot & NFT Trading Will Lose Market Share

(22:50) Stablecoins, DeFi’s Resurgence and Permissioned Protocols

(28:10) Regulators are Coming, and the CBDC debate

(33:31) MEV will be the Business Model for DeFi & Exchanges

(42:13) No Industry Takes Off Without Insurance

(48:57) A Market Bottom & the Value of Memes

(52:44) Curve ad

(54:00) ETH vs Bitcoin (spicy)

(1:05:13) Miner Capitulation, Wallet Wars & Gaming

(1:12:54) Vertical Integration, Privacy and Payments

(1:19:13) The Rise of Professional Guilds

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Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Santi: https://twitter.com/santiagoroel

Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz

Empire links:

Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j

Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7

Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw

Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod

On The Margin links:

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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2022: The Year In Review | Byron Gilliam Dec 21, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Byron Gilliam, Blockworks' very own Newsletter writer for a discussion on top market events in 2022, and what to expect going into 2023.

We begin by discussing the current bear market in equities and bonds where Byron highlights "this bear market is not that bad" compared to previous bear markets. With his experience as an equites trader, Byron shares his thoughts on the typical 60/40, what equities look reasonably priced after the corrections seen in 2022 and how inflation influenced the investing environment over the year.

We then reflect on the crypto markets in 2022 and some of the CeFi deleveraging. Is this positive long term for the space, or could this hinder investor interest in the industry. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Referenced In The Show:

https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:06) This Bear Market Is Not That Bad

(03:07) Is 60/40 Dead?

(04:56) Is Inflation Secular, Or Will Transitory Be Proven Right?