Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

Will Bank Turmoil Cause The Fed Pivot? | Weekly Round Up Mar 25, 2023

Show notes

After another week of continued turmoil across the banking sector, Mike and Mark discuss the "crisis of confidence" that is spreading across the banking system. With Deutsche Bank coming into the spotlight towards the end of the week, are the headlines overblown, or could further issues lie ahead for European banks? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Can The Fed Keep Raising Rates Amidst A Banking Crisis? | Michael Howell Mar 22, 2023

Show notes

On today's episode of On The Margin, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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Bank's Face A Crisis Of Confidence | Weekly Round Up Mar 18, 2023

Show notes

After another week of continued turmoil across the banking sector, Mike and Mark discuss the developing fallout since Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. This week, Credit Suisse faced record outflows, resulting in a $54 Billion loan from the Swiss National Bank as the bank faces a "crisis of confidence". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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The Collapse of SVB, Silvergate & Signature Bank | Caitlin Long and Nic Carter Mar 17, 2023

Show notes

On today's episode of On the Margin, Caitlin Long Founder & CEO at Custodia Bank & Nic Carter Founding Partner at Castle Island Ventures join the show to discuss the recent banking turmoil with the collapse of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank which led to the closure of Signature Bank over the weekend. Interest rate risk in HTM portfolios was the key driver of the recent bank runs we have seen, but how have they reverberated all around the world?

We then discuss the political backlash crypto banks have received as a consequence of the bank crisis and whether this could be an operation chokepoint 2.0 scenario, something Nic has been writing about for many months. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Markets Look Past Silicon Valley Bank's Collapse | Weston Nakamura Mar 16, 2023

Show notes

Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U

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On today's episode of On the Margin, Weston Nakamura, the latest addition to the Blockworks team joins the show to discuss his brand new podcast Market Depth! You can follow the links above to listen to the first episode of Market Depth.

Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Mike and Weston discuss the market reaction and subsequent historic moves in the bond market, which saw the largest decline in the 2Y treasury yield since 1982. We also discuss broader implications on global markets, the BoJ's passing of the guard as Kuroda leaves office and how markets have seemingly shrugged off the SVB collapse. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Governor Kuroda: The Decade’s Most Consequential Central Banker Mar 16, 2023

Show notes

This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes!

Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Largest Bank Failure Since 2008 | Weekly Round Up Mar 11, 2023

Show notes

This week, after a week of turmoil across the banking industry, Mike & Mark discuss the collapse of Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank. With fears mounting over the mark to market value of bank's asset's, we walk through the dynamics which led to depositors running for the exit doors in typical bank run style fashion.

What lies ahead for the banking industry from here? Will contagion spread like in 2008, or are banks much better capitalised to weather the storm in 2023? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

Filmed Friday 10th March hours before the closing of Silicon Valley Bank.

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The China Reopening: A Tale of Two Stories | Shehzad Qazi Mar 08, 2023

Show notes

On today's episode of On the Margin, Shehzad Qazi Managing Director at China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical and secular outlook for the Chinese economy.

As China has announced their full reopening, Shehzad is able to walk through the data China beige Book has been able to collect throughout January and February. Expecting a positive year for China, Shehzad walks through both the cyclical and more structural slower growth environment China will experience over the coming decade due to Xi Jinping's new focus on "common prosperity", as appose to growth at all costs. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/onthemargin

*26-week T-bill rate (as of 3/8/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees.

**As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:27) The Chinese Lockdown of 2022

(02:17) China In 2023: A Tale of Two Stories

(07:30) The Chinese Credit Impulse

(10:03) Public Ad

(11:26) The Chinese Banking System

(16:13) The Reopening's Impact On Commodities

(19:25) Will The Reopening In China Spur Inflation?

(24:57) U.S & China In The Great Power Competition

(36:08) China's Demographic Decline

(40:20) A New Paradigm Over The Next Decade

Breaking Down Warren Buffett's 2023 Shareholder Letter | Yun Li Mar 04, 2023

Show notes

This week, as Mark takes some well deserved time off, we combine forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance.

As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf

Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Powell's Job Isn't Done Yet | Cameron Dawson Mar 01, 2023

Show notes

On today's episode of On the Margin, Cameron Dawson CIO at NewEdge Wealth joins the show for a discussion on the path ahead for the Fed, the outlook for earnings and a potential new regime for markets as certain inflation data begins reaccelerating.

We also take a look at some of America's great recessions and discuss wether or not they provide good comparisons to 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Cameron: https://twitter.com/CameronDawson

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Referenced In The Show:

Disequilibrium How America's Great Inflation Led to the Great Recession: https://books.apple.com/us/book/disequilibrium/id1183616897

Running Up That Hill: Confronting Earnings Hills: https://www.newedgewealth.com/running-up-that-hill/

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:43) Hard Landing, Soft Landing Or No Landing?