Supply Shock

Latest Episodes:

The Great Narrative Unwind | Weekly Roundup May 28, 2022

Show notes

The On The Margin weekly round up returns! After a busy week in Palm Beach for the Blockworks event Permissionless, your favourite weekly round up is back to discuss the biggest stories in markets.

Mike and Mark focus on tackling the narratives that were popular during the bull market to see how they are holding up during 2022's unwind. Can the Fed raise rates considering the amount of outstanding debt the US has, are we really in a supercycle, how will the bear market compare to previous market declines and so much more.

To hear their thoughts, you'll just have to tune into the episode!

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Crypto Bear Market: How Bad Can it Get? with Ben Cowen | On The Margin May 25, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Ben Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse joins the show to discuss the crypto winter and bear market many investors are experiencing.

As sentiment shifts, Bitcoin dominance begins rising & macro forces drive widely viewed risk assets lower, Ben gives a measured & data driven analysis of the fundamentals driving Bitcoin and crypto more broadly. Should we expect more pain to come or are investors preparing for a bottom in the near future? To find out, you'll have to tune in.

Follow Ben Cowen: https://twitter.com/intocryptoverse

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:08)・Bitcoin Dominance

(09:31)・Sentiment Shifts In Crypto

(13:10)・Bull, Bear & Base Case

(16:30)・Comparisons Between Crypto & The 2000 Tech Bubble

(23:16)・Timing A Bear Market Bottom

(28:22)・Diminishing Returns In Crypto

(33:12)・Fireblocks Ad

(34:30)・Building In A Bear Market

(39:48)・The Macro Forces Driving Crypto

(45:08)・The Ethereum Merge

(52:15)・Surviving A Bear Market

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

Fed Wants To Crash The Stock Market | Steven Van Metre May 18, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Steve Van Metre joins the show to discuss Fed chair Powell's plan to crash the stock market in 2022.

With soaring inflation, the Fed embarks on its plan to tighten financial conditions at an accelerating pace with stock holders being the number one target. Steve also discusses the state of the bond market, signs of a looming recession, when we may see a market bottom, peak inflation and how a rising dollar could effect all of these scenarios the Fed is faced with.

Follow Steve: https://twitter.com/MetreSteven

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:01)・Have We Seen Peak Inflation?

(03:46)・The Bond Market

(12:04)・A Rising Dollar

(14:53)・How Do Sanctions Effect The Dollar?

(18:18)・Delinquencies In China

(19:45)・Fireblocks Ad

(21:02)・Lockdowns In China

(23:38)・Is The U.S Heading For Recession?

(26:17)・Powell Wants To Crash The Stock Market

(36:02)・Signs of A Market Bottom

(40:25)・The Fed Wont Get Their Soft Landing

(42:12)・Final Thoughts

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

UST Break Ushers in a New Crypto Bear Market | On The Margin May 14, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark and I focus primarily on one story: the depegging of UST and evaporation of Luna.

We cover a brief overview of UST, what the algorithmic model was that underpinned it, and what caused it to come undone. We also got into the aftermath of an explosion like this, and the contagion that could spread out into the ecosystem.

We also discussed what new entrants to crypto should expect in a bear market, the current state of Coinbase, and Elon Musk's decision to "pause" his bid for Twitter.

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Inflation Has Put The Fed In Handcuffs | Peter Boockvar May 11, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins the show to discuss the Fed’s dilemma. With markets selling off in reaction to one of the fastest hiking cycles in recent history, Peter explains how current inflation rates have "put the Fed in handcuffs.”

Peter shares his outlook for both the stock and bond markets, answering the questions: Where is the Fed put in this cycle? Will the Fed be forced to reverse course if problems arise in credit and repo markets? Or is inflation the number one enemy? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Peter Boockvar: https://twitter.com/pboockvar

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Referenced In The Show:

Bretton Woods III. https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/...

"Russia, China new pipeline, to settle in euros": https://tinyurl.com/bd3hr69d

Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan: https://tinyurl.com/pb6keeh2

Ben S. Bernanke Article: https://tinyurl.com/2p968u9m

Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(00:43)・Peter's Macro Outlook

(02:18)・The Bond Market Bubble

(09:40)・Unintended Consequences of Government Intervention

(15:57)・The Credit Cycle

(18:01)・Lack of Credibility In The Fed

(23:31)・Fireblocks Ad

(24:49)・The U.S Dollar

(29:40)・Zoltan Poszar: Bretton Woods III

(32:41)・Is The World Shifting Away From The Dollar?

(34:35)・The Role of Commodities Over The Next Decade

(36:24)・Equity Market Outlook

(40:56)・Will Powell Be Forced To Pivot?

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

Markets Puke - Is Recession Imminent? | Weekly Roundup May 07, 2022

Show notes

In this episode, Mark and I are focused on answering one question: what is going on with markets?

We kick things off with a quick summary of the equity and bond markets, both of which are having some of their worst starts to the year ever. In the case of the US 10 year, YTD performance through April is the worst it's been since 1778!

Next we moved onto three unsustainable states of being in the market today: 1) equity valuations 2) debt to GDP and 3) wealth inequality. We discussed each of these topics at length, and outlined their connections to one another.

Finally we ended on the transition away from capital to labor, but for that you'll have to tune into the show.

Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

US Dollar "Wrecking Ball" Will Fracture The Global Economy | Michael Nicoletos May 04, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” founder and managing director of DeFi Advisors Michael Nicoletos shares the macro forces driving the dollar higher. As risk mounts, recession warnings loom, and investors take flight for safe haven assets, it's no wonder the dollar finds itself rallying past March 2020 highs.

With an expertise in FX markets, Michael shares how the dollar wrecking ball will impact the global economy, particularly emerging markets, as growth continues to slow and the world scrambles for greenbacks. To hear Michael’s take, you’ll have to tune in!

Follow Michael Nicoletos: https://twitter.com/mnicoletos

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Referenced In The Show:

Bretton Woods III. https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2022/03/Bretton-Woods-III-Zoltan-Pozsar.pdf

Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(00:50)・Michael's Macro Outlook

(06:30)・US Dollar Wrecking Ball

(10:04)・The Russian Ruble

(15:00)・Fireblocks Ad

(16:17)・Bretton Woods III

(26:13)・What's Going On With The Yen?

(28:31)・Trouble In Emerging Markets

(35:28)・Is The Fed Behind The Curve?

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

What Was Bill Hwang Thinking? | Weekly Roundup Apr 30, 2022

Show notes

In this episode, Mark and I started off with an old topic that is just resurfacing: the criminal charges being levied against ex-Tiger Cub Bill Hwang.

Next we moved onto the slowing growth in GDP, precipitous rise of the DXY, and the damage being done to tech stocks compared to crypto.

Finally we ended things on Fidelity's decision to allow 401K participants to include Bitcoin and the Labor Department's response. For that take, you'll need to tune into the episode.

Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Is The Bull Market Over? | Darius Dale Apr 27, 2022

Show notes

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale gives listeners the details on his four horsemen of market risk signals and what they tell us about potential hazards brewing in the market.

Along with host Michael Ippolito, Darius walks us through his point of view on the Fed’s inflation fears, the Bank of Japan’s reinstatement of yield curve control, and warning signs coming out of China. They also speculate on the 40-year bull run on the bond market: Could we soon be witnessing a regime change? To hear Darius’ take, you’ll want to tune in.

Referenced In The Show:

BoJ Announcement on the Conduct of Fixed-Rate Purchase Operations: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2022/rel220420d.pdf

China’s Population Flatlines With Fewest Births Since 1950: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-17/china-s-population-flatlines-with-fewest-births-since-1950

Follow Darius Dale: https://twitter.com/42macroDDale

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:13)・Darius' 2022 Market Outlook

(08:51)・6-12 Month Cyclical Outlook

(12:39)・The Fed's Inflation Fears

(16:11)・The Four Horsemen of Market Risk

(20:32)・Growth To Value

(22:43)・BoJ Announces Yield Curve Control

(28:26)・Fireblocks Ad

(29:45)・Is The Bond Bull Market Over?

(35:50)・The Chinese Credit Cycle

(39:22)・The Rise & Fall of Empires

(43:04)・A Polarising World & Shift To De-Globalization

(45:54)・Venture Capital Flows Into Crypto

Bill Ackman Loses $430 Million on Netflix | On The Margin Apr 23, 2022

Show notes

In this episode, Mark and I kick things off with Netflix's earnings. After posting their first ever subscriber loss, the stock tumbled nearly 40% costing recent investor Bill Ackman $430 Million in just three months. We covered what this recent sell-off might portent for tech stocks moving forward.

After Netflix we moved on to discuss the Yen and it's rapid slide against the dollar. Mark gave some color as to why the Yen functions as a reserve asset for global investors, and what its depreciation means for markets.

Finally we covered the recent rise in food prices, the Bitcoin lightning network, and crypto valuations. For that, you'll have to tune into the show.

Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter