Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

"If the Bond Market Has a Problem, Everyone Will Have a Problem" Mar 12, 2021

Show notes

DB-Mar11,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, and Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to the Daily Briefing to analyze the ongoing gyrations in the U.S Treasurys market and how their future path will impact almost every asset class. Harrison notes the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time high, and Boockvar and Bianco consider the halting of the rotation trade. Boockvar explains that inflation expectations will continue to vex the bond market while Bianco argues that a 10 year rate above 3% would be a serious problem for leveraged institutions. They investigate the effect of yields on the U.S. dollar, and Boockvar and Bianco share their ideal asset allocation in this unique investment environment.

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Corey Hoffstein: "Things Are Going to Stay Weird" Mar 11, 2021

Show notes

DB-Mar10,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe analyze price action in U.S. equities as well as today’s print of the Consumer Price Index, which met but did not exceed expectations and indicates muted inflation. In the main segment, Jack speaks to Corey Hoffstein, co-founder and chief investment officer of Newfound Research. Using advanced quantitative modeling, Corey charts the rotation from growth to value stocks and notes how the underperformance of “momentum” investing is evidence of that very rotation. Corey investigates the claim that growth stocks are vulnerable to increases in interest rates, which he finds true but incomplete. Lastly, Hoffstein shares his view on the vulnerability of the Ark Innovation ETF ($ARKK) to bouts of reflation, looking at metrics such as implied correlation and implied volatility. Corey can be reached on Twitter at @choffstein.

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Polkadot: A Bet Against Maximalism(w/ Gavin Wood) Mar 10, 2021

Show notes

Crypto Wednesday: Gavin Wood, co-founder of Polkadot and co-founder and CTO of Ethereum, joins Sebastian Moonjava, Real Vision associate crypto editor, to discuss Polkadot, Kusama, and the evolving crypto landscape. Wood explains that Polkadot was created to enable faster innovation in the blockchain space, reducing the amount of work necessary to start and secure a new blockchain and connect it to others. He describes Polkadot as a layer 0 technology, a meta protocol, that is more abstract and flexible than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Wood also talks about Kusama, which utilizes the same kind of technology as Polkadot but has a completely different development philosophy. Kusama is a faster iterating, more experimental chain that acts as a "canary network"—a real value, live chain that allows for rapid development of the technology. He describes Polkadot as a revolution in blockchain technology, not just an evolution.

Recorded on January 21, 2021

Key Learnings:

Polkadot enables faster innovation in blockchain technology by making it easier for people to build, secure, and connect blockchains.
Kusama is a more experimental, faster iterating, blockchain utilizing similar technology as Polkadot.
Wood believes that Polkadot is a bet against maximalism as he doesn't prescribe to the idea that there is a "best" blockchain or set of rules for a chain, but that different use cases require different types, and Polkadot enables this.

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Growth's Eye-Popping Snapback and the $86 Billion Pension Bailout Mar 10, 2021

Show notes

DB-Mar10,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to process the astonishing resistance rally in technology and growth stocks with high duration such as Tesla ($TSLA), Peloton ($PTON), DocuSign ($DOCU) and Zoom Video ($ZM). Jack notes that Tesla posted the 3rd biggest daily return in the history of the company, and Ed interprets the pause in the U.S. Treasury sell-off as gold staged a recovery and oil and copper lost the bid. The pair analyze the inclusion in the latest U.S. stimulus package of $86 billion worth of relief for failing pensions, and Ed shares why this bailout might prove a dangerous precedent. Lastly, Ed and Jack analyze the latest data showing that retail comprised a plurality of volume in the U.S. equity market as well as what the most frequented pages on RobinHood indicate about the rise of the retail trader.

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If Duration Is In A Bubble, Where Can Investors Hide? Mar 09, 2021

Show notes

DB-Mar8, 2021. As treasury yields continued their ascent today, big tech stocks such as Alphabet Inc ($GOOGL) and Apple Inc ($AAPL) joined growthy darlings such as Tesla, Zoom, and Peloton in today’s sell-off with the NASDAQ 100 closing today down 11% from its highs. Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Tyler Neville, senior editor of Blockworks, to break down the ongoing rout from growth stocks. Neville shares how he thinks this “bubble in duration” will end, where he sees opportunity in going short GameStop puts, and why he remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin.

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White Collar Crime Part 3 -- Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow on the Problem of "Legal Fraud" Mar 08, 2021

Show notes

Real Vision Live Replay. Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow is infamous for his role in Enron's collapse; however, since serving his time and reflecting on his actions, he has turned over a new leaf, speaking about ethics and the problem of "legal fraud". In this interview with Quinton Mathews, managing member at QKM, Fastow argues that the biggest problem is the incredible number of loopholes that exist, allowing executives like himself to mislead and misrepresent without ever breaking a specific law and even having these misleading statements signed off on by corporate lawyers and auditors. Using poignant examples from Enron and other companies, Fastow highlights many of these loopholes and makes the case that closing them alone could not prevent the problem. Since leaving prison, Fastow has also began investing in a potential solution—Keen Corp's natural language processing software, which he believes if implemented could help corporations to avert white collar crime and detect problems in their ranks before gaining too much momentum. Andy Fastow can be contacted at FormerEnronCFO@gmail.com and KeenCorp can be contacted at NorthAmerica@KeenCorp.com.

Recorded on December 16, 2020.

Key Learnings:

"Fraud" is not always a question of breaking a specific law, and there will always be routes for executives to "legally" mislead and misrepresent. Investors conducting fundamental analysis must be cognizant of this and do their homework when examining financial statements.

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The Cannabis Trade: An Industry Set to Take Off (w/ Jason Wild and Tony Greer) Mar 07, 2021

Show notes

The Interview. Jason Wild, founder of JW Asset Management, sits down with Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, to discuss his career journey from pharmacist to investor with a firm that oversees $1 billion through a mix of investments in pharmaceuticals and cannabis producers. Wild’s early success came from assembling Arbor Pharmaceuticals and later selling it to KKR in 2014 for a large profit. He used the proceeds to invest in major Canadian cannabis companies, and he has since become one of the first U.S. institutional investors in legal cannabis companies. Today he is building the global cannabis company TerrAscend, where he is Chairman.

Recorded January 14, 2021

Key Learnings:

Wild identifies the top cannabis stocks to invest in and why he focuses on operating in limited-license states where there is less competition.
The COVID-19 pandemic has helped drive investor demand in the cannabis industry and states and voters are finally realizing that cannabis legalization is a solution to help revive the economy.

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Society's Disenfranchisement & the Connection Between the Law, Money, and Corporatism (w/Mike Green) Mar 06, 2021

Show notes

The Interview: How you feel about gold, bitcoin, the Fed, or MMT probably has to do with how you answer the question, "What is Money?" In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Rohan Grey, assistant professor of law at Willamette University, argues that money is a construct of the law and as such is rooted in the social contract. In addition to discussing the importance of understanding this dynamic and its implications for crypto, MMT, and the banking system, Green and Grey explore the role of the law in society more broadly. Together they discuss the never ending dynamic between disruption and regulation, the rise of corporatism and the disenfranchisement felt by citizens who no longer feel able to affect change through the law, and the importance of civil discourse when discussing societies biggest problems. .

Recorded on January 13, 2021

Key Learnings:

Grey and Green highlight that the "opt out" ideology of hard money enthusiasts is driven by a correct assessment that the system is broken, but that their prescribed solutions will only exacerbate the problem and fail to solve the bigger issue of the disenfranchisement of an overwhelming majority of the populace.

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Hidden Credit Risk, Jobs, and the Sudden "De-Frothing" Reversal Mar 06, 2021

Show notes

DB-March5, 2021. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to make sense of today’s confounding price action. Growthy names plummeted alongside re-opening stocks like cruise lines and airlines, only for a sudden risk reversal to take place midday for all U.S. stock indexes to end the day deep in the green. Harrison and Bennington analyze today’s non-farm payroll numbers, which showed strength in the labor market concentrated in the beleaguered leisure and hospitality sector. After the three explore how rising bond yields impact credit spreads and credit risk, Harrison investigates whether the rotation away from growth and into value and re-opening stocks will be a lasting trend. Farley provides data concerning SPACs, showing that the number of special purpose acquisition vehicles trading below $10 has steadily rose and why this could be another sign of the fragility of growth stocks.

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Bonds Bite Back: How and When Will the Fed Respond? Mar 05, 2021

Show notes

DB-Mar4,2021. Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to break down today’s volatile price action in bonds and high beta stocks. Boockvar explains that Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments earlier in the day triggered another sell-off in bonds as the market, emphasizing their fear of inflationary pressures to come in 2021, pushed back on the Fed for staying the course. Harrison and Boockvar explore a few different scenarios where the Fed could begin to move against the rise in rates including ramping up their bond buying programs and implementing yield curve control. They also examine the consequences of these actions and the possibility that the Fed will refrain from intervening until markets begin to break. Finally, Boockvar discusses equities, considering the potential winners and losers in this environment.

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