Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

Erik Norland and Harley Bassman on Fed Policy, Volatility, MMT and Inflation Mar 29, 2021

Show notes

Real Vision Live Replay : Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME Group, joins Wall Street veteran Harley Bassman of The Convexity Maven to discuss the impact of Fed policy on volatility across a handful of assets since the pandemic and, more broadly, since the GFC. In addition to this discussion of potential unintended effects of Fed policy, they examine its failure to generate meaningful inflation in anything aside from financial assets. They also debate whether negative rates in the US are probable—or even possible—as well as why the dwindling monetary policy toolbox combined with political rhetoric seems to point towards MMT and a passing of the baton from monetary authorities to fiscal authorities at least as it relates to generating inflation.

Recorded on December 16, 2020.

Key Learnings:

The Fed’s monetary policy has had measurable effects on markets, especially in terms of reducing volatility but has not been successful in generating inflation.
The shift from monetary to fiscal policy could be what finally ushers in the period of inflation many have been predicting.

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Mark Cuban: What the Fed-Driven Bubble Means for the Financial Establishment ( w/Raoul Pal ) Mar 28, 2021

Show notes

The Interview: Famed investor and entrepreneur Mark Cuban, star of Shark Tank, joins Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal to make sense of the changing market structure and the disruption of the financial establishment. Cuban sees tokenization and blockchain bringing more transparency to the financial industry and remains bullish on Bitcoin as a store of value and reserve asset. He also praises stimulus efforts but sees political partisanship as a major risk to fixing the dichotomy between Main Street and Wall Street.

Recorded on February 3, 2021

Key Learnings:

Cuban follows the HODL ethos of cryptocurrency and shares what’s in his crypto portfolio: BTC, ETH, LTC, AAVE, and more.
When it comes to the public markets, he explains why Amazon and Netflix are among the big tech companies with the strongest AI capabilities and they’ve remained two of his biggest holdings for years.

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Richard Koo: How Excessive Corporate Debt Could Thwart Future Economic Growth Mar 27, 2021

Show notes

Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, returns to Real Vision to update his framework on how key economic variables such cash, liquidity, savings, and debt have been impacted by the global recession. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Koo applies to the current situation his noted theory of a "balance sheet recession" in which liquidity is ample, but the private sector nevertheless remains focused on paying down debt. Koo and Harrison analyze the interplay between the economic shutdown and economic growth. Lastly, Koo shares his views about quantitative easing, negative interest rates, central bank digital currencies, and ongoing efforts by central banks to stem the damage wreaked by the pandemic.

Recorded on January 29, 2021

Key learnings:

Koo thinks that the unprecedented interventions of central banks were necessary to meet the once-in-a-lifetime crisis of COVID-19.
Like many, Koo expects that economic growth will pick up once pent-up demand is unleashed. However, after this spurt of economic activity,
Koo thinks that the overhang of debt could cause a significant balance sheet recession that is contractionary and deflationary.

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The Battles in the Market: Big vs. Small, Stay-At-Home vs. Re-Opening Mar 26, 2021

Show notes

DB-Mar26,2021: Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry gives Real Vision’s Jack Farley a much-needed update on the “battles” in the market between mega-cap stocks that dominate the S&P 500 and the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 that have been ripping for months. Thornton analyzes the internals of the market, using DeMARK indicators to gauge exhaustion, and he looks at breadth, moving averages, and volatility. Thornton shares with Farley his view on bonds and energy stocks as well as Tesla, the ARK Innovation ETF, and specific stocks that are on his radar.

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Priced for Perfection: Has the Reflation Trade Gone Too Far? Mar 26, 2021

Show notes

DB-Mar25,2020. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes to the Daily Briefing Amanda Agati, chief investment strategist of PNC Financial Services Group, and Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Agati shares her view on U.S. equity valuations, noting that stocks might have run too far, too fast amid reflation optimism, and Chandler argues that market performance will ultimately hinge on liquidity conditions, making the long-term case for why the dollar could be approaching the end of its bull cycle as twin deficits weigh it down. Agati also highlights that there is much opportunity in both the debt and equity of emerging markets, noting serious composition changes with the various indices. Lastly, Agati and Chandler share their views on bonds and credit.

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Nasdaq Woes In A Re-Opening "Explosion" Mar 25, 2021

Show notes

DB-Mar24,2021: In the main segment, Jared Dillian, editor of the Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how he’s navigating the mercurial swings in stocks. Dillian argues that both the rotation from growth into value as well as the sell-off in U.S. Treasurys will likely continue as the U.S. economy re-opens and trillions of dollars worth of stimulus are on the table. Dillian shares with Farley his thoughts on reflationary sectors such as energy, airlines, and life insurance, and he also shares his evaluation of psychology within the Bitcoin market. In the final segment, Farley is joined by Huw Roberts, director of analytics at Quant Insight, who conducts data-driven analysis on how the gyrations in the Nasdaq 100 Index are driven by macro variables like interest rates, commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and expectations for growth and inflation.

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One Year Anniversary of the Market Bottom -- What Could Go Wrong? Mar 24, 2021

Show notes

DB-Mar23,2021. Lily Francus, independent quantitative researcher, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share her outlook on narrative economics, the NOPE Index, and the dangers of beta. On the one-year anniversary of the bottom in the S&P 500, Francus notes that this current market environment is marked by a great deal of short covering and portfolio rebalancing, which drive the “rotation” trade away from growth into value that has been playing out. Francus explains how the surge of retail traders (or “low-information traders”) has driven flows and exerted a serious influence, particularly in the sky-high volume of options contracts. Francus connects this to her theory on NOPE (“net options pricing effect”) before sharing with Bennington her advice to traders in this choppy market.

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Lyn Alden on Gold, Real Bond Yields, and the Treasury s Bloated War Chest Mar 22, 2021

Show notes

DB- Mar22, 2021. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley to share her analysis on the prospects of U.S. Treasury bond yields, given the Federal Reserve’s decision to give exemptions to banks’ supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) expire, and its apparent aversion to yield curve control (YCC). Alden tells Farley that forthcoming headline inflation figures could appear higher than true inflation due to base effects, and explains the how the record-high Treasury’s General Account (TGA) will affect bond yields going forward. Alden explains why she expects yields to be the release valve of volatility rather than the dollar, and notes that heightened uncertainty over macro variables makes this environment a paradise for pickers of individual stocks. Lastly, Alden shares her bullish thesis on Adobe Inc ($ADBE) and her evolving views on non-fungible tokens (NFTs).

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The $17 Trillion Question (w/ Jim Grant ) Mar 22, 2021

Show notes

Real Vision Live Replays. It isn't hard to find data indicative of the madness that pervades the current market environment, but to Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, no data point encapsulates this quite as clearly as the staggering $17 trillion of negative-yielding debt outstanding in the world. As an avid historian of interest rates, Grant argues that the only certainty is that this will end and most likely it will end badly. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Grant explores why he is so certain that this monetary experiment will end badly, the unintended negative consequences that can be seen in credit markets as yield starved investors grope for any yield they can find no matter the risk, and the opportunities this presents for investors willing to bet that a guaranteed loss on your investment will eventually fall out of fashion. As well the pair will discuss the implications of Biden's selection of Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary and potential for a return to an inflationary environment.

Recorded on Dec 3, 2020.

For Jim's charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lBES10

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The SPAC Boom Apex, Market Memes, & the Biggest Opportunities in Tech (w/Josh Wolfe & Michael Green) Mar 21, 2021

Show notes

The Interview. Because of their favorable structure, SPACs have become the vehicle of choice for founders and venture capitalists to bring private startups to the public market—even with the explosion of SPACs in 2020, we are already on record setting pace in 2021. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital breaks down exactly why the SPAC structure is so favorable and argues that the knock-on effect of an M&A boom will produce the modern equivalent of the AOL-Time Warner acquisition, signaling that the top is in. Wolfe and Green also discuss Wall Street Bets and the current meme driven market, Josh's prediction of an "Occupy the Fed" movement, and the biggest opportunities in tech that he and Lux Capital are invested in

Recorded on January 28, 2021.

Key Learnings:

SPACs have a favorable structure that makes raising cash so easy that it will encourage rampant M&A, which will eventually result in the mega-deal, signaling the top of the market.
Crypto and Wall Street Bets are emblematic of outrage that Josh Wolfe believes will result in an "Occupy the Fed" movement and retroactive regulation. At the moment,
Josh Wolfe and Lux Capital are focused on the technology behind scientific advancement and the emerging space economy as their big bets.

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