Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

A Chart-Filled Look at Banks, Inflation, and Treasury Volatility Apr 13, 2021

Show notes

DB-Apr12,2021: Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley prepare viewers for a huge week in markets, giving insight on the series of major investment banks set to release their earnings later this week as well as the pivotal disclosure of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Farley explains why “base effects” are so important, and Wiethe breaks down the inflation readings into their components, using insights from his upcoming interview with oil analyst Warren Pies. Lastly, Farley and Wiethe take a chart-heavy look at everything from Treasury volatility to cannabis stocks to Ecuadorean bonds.

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Market Outlook for 2021 in Charts ( w/ Peter Brandt ) Apr 12, 2021

Show notes

Real Vision Live Replay: Legendary chartist, Peter Brandt of Factor LLC, returns to Real Vision Live to run through his 2021 outlook for a handful of assets based on their technical setups. Together with Real Vision's Max Wiethe, Brandt will analyze the setups in US, Japanese, and Chinese equities. In addition to equities Brandt will also examine corn and other agricultural commodities, gold, bitcoin, US Treasurys, and currencies. Brandt will also take questions from the audience and provide his macro perspective after decades of successful trading.

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Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Equities, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities (w/Raoul Pal) Apr 11, 2021

Show notes

The Interview: Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, welcomes Felix Zulauf, legendary investor and CEO of Zulauf Consulting, to share his thoughts on the interplay of interest rates, equities, and inflation as well as share his macro outlook as debt and demographics reshape the future of economic growth. Zulauf believes that the current macro setting of rising yields and a falling dollar mirror the conditions prior to the 1987 equity crash, commonly known as Black Monday, which wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars worth of equity valuation overnight. Zulauf sees this correction not as a disaster scenario but merely a detour to another leg higher. Zulauf remains constructive on equities, at least in the long-term, due to his belief that central banks are dedicated to propping up risk assets like never before since a decline in risk assets by 10% would roughly correspond to a loss in 1% of GDP growth.

Recorded on February 11, 2021.

Key learnings:

Zulauf sees a possibility of a 10-15% correction in the near-term as rising yields trigger investment models to cut back risk.
He thinks rising yields will make for a bleak 2021 for gold although he is constructive on the precious metal in 2022 and beyond.

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Are SPACs in a Bubble? ( w/ Mark Yusk ) Apr 10, 2021

Show notes

The Interview: What are SPACs? What role do they play in the current investment landscape? What opportunities do they offer investors? And, perhaps most importantly, are they in a bubble? Mark Yusko, CEO and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to answer these questions and more. Yusko argues that SPACs offer exposure to the growth areas of the future—from online gaming and e-sports to electric vehicles and space exploration—and that SPACs present the path forward for early-stage companies to go public. Yusko traces the different stages in the SPAC capital formation process, which includes pre-IPO, private investment in public equity (PIPE), and post-merger, and he depicts the various opportunities they offer investors, noting that many stages offer bond-like risk but equity-like returns. Yusko describes his latest venture, the Morgan Creek and EXOS Launch SPAC Originated ETF, which seeks to deploy active management and long-term holding periods as a way to navigate a promising space that is nevertheless frothy like so many other pockets of the market.

Recorded on February 10, 2021.

Key learnings:

Yusko explains that SPACs are just a regulatory wrapping—saying that SPACs are in a bubble is like saying hedge funds are in a bubble.
Yusko argues that SPACs offer exposure to the companies of the future and that, due to the dispersion between different SPACs, active management and diversification is the best way for investors to play the space.

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Update from Raoul on the Dollar, Rates, Growth, and Crypto. Apr 10, 2021

Show notes

DB-April9,2021: Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to make sense of a market in flux and share opportunities on his radar. Raoul updates his macro views on the dollar, interest rates, and economic growth before he discusses new developments in the crypto world such as the IPO of Coinbase as well as the U.S. listing of Galaxy Digital. Raoul also shares his latest views on ARK Innovation ETFs as part of his belief in durable secular trends driven by technology that abide by Metcalfe’s Law.

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Buyer Beware: Are Markets Set Up for a Pullback? Apr 09, 2021

Show notes

DB-Apr8,2021: Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to share his insights on the inflationary pressures and drawdown risks he’s observing. Boockvar discusses his take on why weekly jobless claims in the U.S. continue to be high while job openings are also at record highs, highlighting how enhanced unemployment benefits may be competing with wages and how this puts inflationary pressure on labor. He also analyzes Jamie Dimon’s statement of the economic boom running all the way into 2023 and points out that another leg up in rates, a potential tapering by the Fed, and the end of large-scale fiscal spending could all prove to upend that notion. Harrison and Boockvar also explore the potential influence that supply chain disruptions could have on earnings, a corporate tax grab under Biden, and the impact of high margin debt on markets.

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The Roaring Twenties:Inflation, Equity Melt-Ups, and Extreme Bond Pain ( w/ Jared Dillian ) Apr 09, 2021

Show notes

DB- Apr7,2021: Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley on how America’s red-hot economy is precipitating wage inflation alongside monetary and fiscal stimulus, worth trillions of dollars, which shows no sign of slowing. Dillian argues that this booming reflationary environment will be hostile to bonds but could lead to a “melt-up” in U.S. equity indexes as value stocks surge and growth stocks remain at hold their own. Lastly, Dillian and Farley cover gold, retail leverage, and the Federal Reserve’s release of its minutes from the FOMC’s meeting in March.

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Unfettered, Wide-Open Innovation ( w/ Andreas M. Antonopoulos ) Apr 07, 2021

Show notes

Crypto Wednesday: Author, coder, and educator Andreas M. Antonopoulos (aantonop.com) joins Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss Bitcoin, layer 2 solutions, and the Wild West of crypto. Andreas describes Bitcoin as enabling trust across vast distances without coordination—trust without a central authority. He explains that Bitcoin allows you to trust in the system, without needing to trust the other person you are transacting with and without needing to even know who they are. Antonopoulos touches on the difficulty of scaling blockchains, mentioning that its design requires everyone to check everyone else's work in order to remain secure and decentralized. Layer 2 solutions, such as Lightning Network, have been built on top of Bitcoin to help it scale to magnitudes greater transactions per second while still retaining the security and decentralization characteristics. Antonopoulos explains that crypto has enabled innovation of financial services, no longer restricted by gatekeepers, and he observes that the fact that anyone is allowed to innovate without permission, without authorization, and without oversight has created a "Wild West" environment with many “snake oil salesmen." In light of this, he infers that this is why there is significant defensive skepticism regarding Bitcoin vs. other new projects in the space.

Recorded on February 18, 2021.

Key Learnings:

Bitcoin engenders trust in its system as it does not require trust in a central authority to coordinate transactions, even across considerable distance.
The problem it currently faces is scalability. In order to resolve that without compromise,
Layer 2 solutions help blockchains scale while attempting to retain similar levels of decentralization and security as the base chain.
The permissionless nature of open source blockchains creates an environment ripe for "snake oil salesmen," and this is why many people who understand this have strong defensive skepticism of non-Bitcoin projects.

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Investor Sentiment Peaking, Coinbase Taking Off, and Archegos Imploding ( w/ Tommy Thornton ) Apr 06, 2021

Show notes

DB-April6, 2021: Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to discuss Coinbase, Archegos’s implosion, and the overall state of U.S. equities. After reviewing Coinbase’s earnings, Thornton discusses his bullishness on their upcoming direct listing, a gesture that he considers validating for the crypto space and will become the biggest deal of the year, and he shares his plans to buy in and how he’ll build the trade. Thornton also explores what he’s seeing in U.S. equities such as a FAANGs experiencing a rally and the S&P 500 displaying exhaustion signals as well as daily sentiment reaching 90%. In light of Archegos’s leveraged blow-out last week and its ripple effect on the market, he provides his perspective on what happened and why this is significant. Finally, Bennington and Thornton tackle the rise in Treasury yields and other various catalysts that currently lie dormant such as the vaccine rollout, the reopening of the economy, and the potential problems going forward for the labor market.

For Our Listeners:

For the special offer for Thornton’s research service, Hedge Fund Telemetry, use coupon code “stonks” here: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/checkout/.

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Hedge Fund Strategies for Bonds, Equities, and Bitcoin ( w/ Troy Gayeski ) Apr 06, 2021

Show notes

DB-Apr5,2021: Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer of SkyBridge Capital, joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley to break down how he thinks the rapidly changing economic and financial landscape is affecting his outlook for fixed-income, equities, and Bitcoin as well as hedge fund strategies such as long/short equities and convertible bond arbitrage. Gayeski argues that rising yields render much of the fixed-income world unattractive but that pockets of opportunity exist in structured credit, which is more immune to interest rate risk. He argues that Bitcoin is attractive to institutional allocators as a way to get exposure to central bank balance sheet expansion and explains why Bitcoin now comprises a double-digit percentage in SkyBridge’s portfolio. Gayeski also shares his views on macroeconomic variables such as inflation, growth, and interest rates as well as his take on the ongoing rotation from growth stocks into value equities.

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