Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

Whispers of Tax Hikes Spook Stocks - Plus Defining "The New Normal" Apr 23, 2021

Show notes

DB-Apr23,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley tackle the whispers of a capital gains tax hike on America’s wealthiest investors, which triggered a midday sell-off in U.S. equities. Harrison analyzes the progress of global vaccination efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19 and argues why he believes the “fourth wave” of COVID-19 in the U.S. is very unlikely to destabilize the economy. Harrison shares with Farley how he sees industries evolving their businesses in a world that is fully re-opened yet still wracked by infection risk, something he terms “the new normal.” This conversation leads to Farley’s analysis of the earnings reports of Southwest Airlines Co ($LUV) and American Airlines Group ($AAL). Lastly, Farley and Harrison take a brief detour into Dogecoin as well as commercial real estate.

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Dollar Dump Breathes New Life Into Commodities Apr 21, 2021

Show notes

DB-Apr20,2021: Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision crypto editor Ash Bennington to update his thesis on commodities and interest rates as the U.S. economy continues to roar. Greer makes sense of a surging equity market that backed off today and argues that commodities will continue to perform in a “liquidity parade” set by a combination of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Greer analyzes falling yields and a falling dollar and connects the rise in financing costs to the slump in cannabis equities. Greer covers the resurgent bull markets in grain, iron ore, and oil, contending that monetary authorities are pouring “kerosene” on these assets

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Will Dogecoin's Eye-Popping Surge Test the Fed's Resolve? Apr 19, 2021

Show notes

DB-Apr19,2021: In the first segment, Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and Jack Farley investigate the challenges the Federal Reserve faces as speculative fervor reaches a fever pitch in Dogecoin as well as the ultimate fate of the yield curve. Harrison and Farley look how Fed Funds futures indicate the implied probability of the future Fed Funds rate and explore whether the holding pattern in bonds can continue and where yields will go if they go back on the march. In the final segment, Farley speaks to Deep Knowledge Investing's Gary Brode, who shares his analysis of stocks such as Enova International Inc ($ENVA) and Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co ($HMHC).

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Grantham's GMO: Twilight of Growth Stocks w/ Matt Kadnar ) Apr 18, 2021

Show notes

The Interview: In the wake of interviews with Jeremy Grantham and his recent heir apparent Ben Inker, managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes a third member of GMO, portfolio manager Matt Kadnar, to Real Vision. Kadnar shares with Harrison his approach to asset allocation and risk management at this unique market juncture. Kadnar thinks a cyclical bout of inflation could be due, but is skeptical that a 1970s-era level of secular inflation will linger for long since these serious periods of inflation are caused by a wage price spiral and unemployment remains high. Kadnar argues that if the market prices in more inflation, interest rates will continue to rise, and this will likely cause high-flying growth stocks to return to the ground. This is in line with Kadnar's investment framework, which as he describes to Harrison is dependent on mean reversion in the long-run. Kadnar is not a believer in gold but notes that if real rates become sufficiently negative, gold begins to make more sense within a portfolio.

Recorded on February 23, 2021.

Key learnings: Kadnar believes that value stocks will likely outperform growth stocks over the long-run. He argues that Treasury bonds do not offer the same protection from equity drawdowns that they once did, and as such, he is constructive on asset backed-securities to play this role.

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Uranium: "The Most Asymmetric Trade I've Seen In My Life" (w/ Lyn Alden and Marcelo Lopez) Apr 17, 2021

Show notes

The Interview: Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, welcomes Marcelo Lopez, managing partner at L2 Capital Partners, for a deep-dive on Uranium both as an energy source as well as an asset class. A former engineer, Lopez has built a model mapping every Uranium mine on earth and shares with Alden why he thinks supply will be constrained for years to come. Alden highlights the key role nuclear power will play in the global transition away from fossil fuels, particularly in countries like India, where three quarters of all energy is produced from coal. Lopez insists that, in the world of ETFs, $URNM is a much better alternative than $URA, but notes that active research and security selection will yield the best results. Lastly, Alden and Lopez comment on the uncorrelated nature of Uranium to other macro cycles and how this is beneficial within a portfolio.

Recorded on February 22, 2021.

Key learnings:

Lopez argues that Uranium offers the most asymmetric trade he has ever seen in his lifetime.
The market cap of all Uranium equities amounts to roughly $20 Billion dollars, Lopez notes, so an investor can buy all of a key power source for about 1/35th the valuation of Tesla.

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Breaking Down "The Exponential Age: Crypto's Fast and Furious Rise" Apr 16, 2021

Show notes

DB-Apr16,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal to discuss his Expert View, “The Exponential Age: Crypto’s Fast and Furious Rise,” released today. Ash and Raoul will be contextualizing this piece for macro investors and more.

Please visit this link to watch the video just by adding your email address.

The Exponential Age: Crypto’s Fast and Furious Rise,

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The Bumpy Road to Reopening, Long-Term Supply Shortages, and Inflation ( w/ Jim Bianco) Apr 16, 2021

Show notes

DB-Apr15,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes back Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, to discuss the newest release in the weekly jobless claims data, comparing the vaccine roll-out in the U.S. to other countries, and how we are on the precipice of inflation. Bianco points out how, even though jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the pandemic, the question of job growth is trickier to address as enhanced benefits seem to be deterring people from seeking out work. He also considers how the level of COVID-19 infections and the pace of vaccine roll-outs both differ between the U.S., Europe, and Asia, which means that globally, the reopening is much further away. Bianco and Harrison also address how supply chain disruptions may feed into inflationary pressures, how new methodology may have an impact on CPI metrics, earnings expectations for this year, and Bianco’s thoughts on the trajectory of the bond market and rates.

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Signs of Trouble in the Bank Earnings "Blowout"? Plus Coinbase's Debut ( w/ Chris Whalen) Apr 14, 2021

Show notes

DB-Apr14,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley welcomes Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, to make sense of the release of earnings from big banks such as JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC). Whalen explains why the eye-popping net income figures, which exceeded expectations, are largely due to booking released loan loss reserves as profits as well as trading revenues, which may not be sustainable. Whalen argues that quantitative easing has reduced banks’ earnings power by compressing their net income margins. Lastly, he and Farley discuss the ongoing role of the Federal Reserve as well as today’s direct listing of Coinbase.

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Portfolio Construction: Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum ( w/ Jeff Dorman, Joey Krug, Raoul Pal and Ari Paul ) Apr 14, 2021

Show notes

Crypto Wednesday: Arca CIO Jeff Dorman, Pantera Capital co-CIO Joey Krug, and BlockTower Capital CIO and co-founder Ari Paul join Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to discuss their three favorite sectors in crypto, portfolio construction outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and how they view DeFi. Each of the guests describe what decentralized finance means to them, touching on the risks of investing outside of the top two coins by market capitalization. They explain their thoughts on some of the current emerging crypto sectors such as NFTs.

Recorded on February 18, 2021.

Key Learnings:

The crypto space is still young, and there are many new projects popping up all of the time.
Investors should be very cautious about investing into newer projects in the space as smaller market cap projects tend to be increasingly risky with smaller size.
For those that are interested in investigating further out the risk curve, DeFi and NFTs are the sectors most commonly mentioned in these discussions.

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Inflation, Stock Options and Crypto Derivatives in a Vol-Suppressed World ( w/ Imran Lakha ) Apr 14, 2021

Show notes

DB-April13,2021: Imran Lakha of Options Insight joins Real Vision’s Jack Farley to make sense of a market that is becoming calmer day-by-day as measured by implied as well as historical volatility. They discuss the halting of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine distribution as well the release of the latest data on the Consumer Price Index, which, at a yearly change 2.6%, exceeded economist expectations of 2.5%. Lakha defines key terms and shares the mechanics of key options strategies such as collars (also known as “risk reversals” or “risk-ies”), straddles, and stock replacement. Lastly, Lakha shares tales from the burgeoning world of crypto derivatives, describing the rare “call skew” in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and explains why he, a two-decade veteran of the volatility markets, sees it as a tremendous opportunity. Lakha can be found on Twitter @options_insight.

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