Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

Get Ready for the Return of Secular Stagnation ( w/ Daniel Lacalle & Ed Harrison ) May 09, 2021

Show notes

The Interview: Narratives around the reflation trade and asset prices are currently pointing towards a full recovery and a period of extended growth as the world exits lockdowns. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Daniel Lacalle, chief economist and CIO at Tressis, argues that this is being fueled by nothing more than hope and that, although this is a recovery, the world will return to the same state of secular stagnation and low growth that existed pre-COVID. Lacalle explains why fiscal and monetary policies, which have not generated inflation, will only make this situation worse, why he thinks there is only a few months left in the reflation trade, and the resulting asset allocation based on his outlook. They also discuss current pockets of value and the sectors that Lacalle considers to be value traps like energy and financials as well as Lacalle’s outlook for the dollar.

Recorded on March 10, 2021.

Key Learnings:

Sectors like energy and financials, which have been benefiting from reflation narratives and trade at low multiples, should not be considered "value".
Current negative views on the US and the dollar remind Lacalle of the GFC, but the reality is that the US and the dollar are still the cleanest dirty shirt.

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How Taxes Will Shape the Future ( w/ Dominic Frisby & Raoul Pal ) May 08, 2021

Show notes

The Interview: Even before COVID, global deficits had already expanded—but in the last year, they have exploded to levels that almost guarantee increases in taxes. We can already see the effects as high-net-worth individuals and businesses leave high tax areas like California for lower tax areas like Florida, Texas, and the Cayman Islands. Dominic Frisby, author of "Daylight Robbery: How Tax Shaped Our Past and Will Change Our Future," sits down with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to discuss the history of taxes, sinister invisible taxes in the form of targeted inflation and monetary debasement, and the future of taxes considering the trends outlined above. Pal and Frisby also discuss the inevitability and virtues of some level of tax and cooperation and the potential for better tax structures to emerge from this crisis.

Recorded on March 2, 2021.

Key Learnings:

Increased taxes, new taxes, and monetary debasement are almost an inevitability considering massive global deficits post-COVID.
Immigration and migration patterns have already emerged, and geographies that recognize these trends and adjust their taxation and monetary system in a fair way will attract both human and traditional capital.

For our Listeners :

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Raoul Pal: Is Macro "Dead"? May 08, 2021

Show notes

DB-May7,2021: Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO and co-founder, to introduce Real Vision’s latest campaign, “Welcome to the Exponential Age.” Raoul will be going in-depth on his new macro framework, the Exponential Age, and he and Ed tease their interview that’s being released on Monday. They also contextualize today’s U.S. jobs report, which fell far from economists’ expectations, and Raoul explains what the Exponential Age means for employment going forward.

For our Listeners:

Join Arca's 4th annual FO256 conference virtually, Tuesday May 25th by registering at www.ar.ca/21FO256.
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Gold Breaks Out As Labor Market Trouble Endures May 07, 2021

Show notes

DB-May6,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley evaluate price action in markets as the bond market refuses to budge, some chaos in single stocks today has been hidden by relatively flat U.S. equity indexes, and gold is breaking out of its range, surging beyond $1800. Ed also takes an in-depth look at today's economic data on initial and continuing jobless claims as well as the latest news flow on companies' struggles to hire workers even as unemployment rate remains in elevated territory. Jack reports from the trenches of the over-the-counter interest rate swaps market and speculates on what it indicates about investors' trust in the Fed.

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Bitcoin: Savior of a Dying Empire? ( w/ Michael Krieger & Brent Johnson ) May 05, 2021

Show notes

Real Vision Crypto Wednesday: Michael Krieger, creator of Liberty Blitzkrieg, joins Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, to discuss their discovery of Bitcoin, the subculture, and the probability of a government shutdown. Krieger describes Bitcoin as a representation of a path or blueprint for humanity to follow: not just with money, but with nearly everything. They note that Bitcoin is decentralized, permissionless, and open-source, and that these three qualities are key to Bitcoin's success. Krieger also believes that Bitcoin is increasingly becoming more political, and he notes that the only 2 major political movements in this day and age are localism and Bitcoin.

Recorded on March 18, 2021.

Key Learnings:

Krieger and Johnson believe that, although the current US infrastructure is still strong, citizens are looking to shift to more free and open sources in both their digital and physical lives.
They believe that Bitcoin is better than any country's digital reserve currency because of its decentralized and open source nature.
In their view the entire social, political, and economic organization of humans is being disrupted by Bitcoin.

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Tony Greer: Update on Inflation, Rates, and Commodities as Growth Stocks Decline May 05, 2021

Show notes

DB-May4,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to discuss Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s statement today on interest rates, Bank of America’s warning of transitory hyperinflation, and Q1 earnings. Greer shares his perspective on Yellen’s assertion on the possible need to raise interest rates and how it impacted markets today, and he and Bennington speculate on whether the Fed will change course later in the year. Greer also considers the trajectory of inflation in light of Bank of America’s statement about transitory hyperinflation to come and explores why he feels this time is different for price inflation. Finally, Bennington and Greer touch on Q1 earnings and Dogecoin’s meteoric rise.

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Warren Buffett on Stocks and Inflation - Plus the Interest Rate Swirl May 04, 2021

Show notes

DB-May3,2021: Real Vision managing Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down today’s market action in stocks, bonds, and commodities. Farley interprets Warren Buffett’s latest comments at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders’ meeting, and he and Harrison discuss Buffett’s statements on inflation and equity performance as well as the announcement of Buffett’s successor. Harrison evaluates recent moves in the bond market and shares his views on whether currencies or interest rates will be the “release valve” for volatility as equities grind higher.

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Will the U.S. Leave the Value of the Dollar to "Market Forces"? ( w/ Luke Gromen) May 03, 2021

Show notes

Real Vision Live Replay: Luke Gromen, founder and president of FFTT, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss why he believes the strength or weakness of the dollar cannot be left to market forces. Gromen argues that, if left to market forces, the sheer size of the U.S. Government deficit would crowd out global dollar markets, sending the dollar skyrocketing with devastating consequences for global markets. Paired with recent rhetoric from Janet Yellen about not seeking a weak dollar has shaken Gromen's conviction in near-term dollar weakness and the subsequent knock-on effects. Gromen and Harrison will also discuss Gromen's views on the Treasury market and why he thinks rates will be allowed to rise until something cracks.

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The "Right" Price for Bonds, Demographics and Inflation, and Cheap Bets on Volatility ( w/ Harley Bassman) May 02, 2021

Show notes

The Interview: With bonds selling off alongside equities and the volatility of both asset classes rising, there is perhaps no better time to hear from The Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman. In this interview with Logica Capital Advisors partner, chief strategist, and PM Mike Green, Bassman outlines his view that this move higher in rates is the bond market finally moving towards the "right" price after a decade of interest rate suppression. Green and Bassman discuss the positive and negative consequences of higher rates, a steeper yield curve, and monetary and fiscal policies like negative interest rates and stimulus checks. They also touch on the current opportunities that Bassman sees and his prediction of inflationary impulse due to demographics sometime between 2023 and 2025. Harley Bassman has provided a slide deck to accompany this interview which can be found here: https://rvtv.io/3cai4CR and his commentary on convexity can be found here: https://rvtv.io/38eiXZS.

Recorded on March 3, 2021.

Key Learnings:

Bassman believes interest rates have been kept artificially low, and the current sell-off in bonds is the market moving towards the "right" price.
He also advocates for investors to be long convexity and believes that OTM calls on equities and long-dated options on interest rates are extremely cheap.

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Jim Rogers: Identifying Opportunities While Markets Are Up to A Fever Pitch May 01, 2021

Show notes

The. Interview: Legendary independent investor Jim Rogers joins Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal to share his outlook on markets and the lessons he learned on his storied career. Rogers tells Pal that this current market environment, marked by record-low mutual fund cash levels and high levels of investing on margin, reminds him somewhat of the conditions prior to the "Black Monday" sell-off on October 19, 1987, which actually occurred on Rogers’ birthday. Rogers stresses the importance of thinking for oneself and argues that China is well-positioned to be the future engine of economic growth and technological progress. Recorded on February 23, 2021.

Key learnings:

Rogers is very constructive on commodities such as silver, oil, sugar, and various other agricultural opportunities.
He notes speculative fervor in the current market, particularly in SPACs, but sees opportunities in China and Russia in addition to commodities.

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