Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

Driving Transaction Costs Down to Zero ( w/ Jeremy Allaire & Raoul Pal) Feb 24, 2021

Show notes

Crypto Wednesday: Circle co-founder, chairman, and CEO Jeremy Allaire joins Raoul Pal, Real Vision CEO, to discuss stable coins, regulation, and the problems that Circle is working to solve. Allaire explains that Circle was created to improve the way traditional money, or fiat, was transacted. This vision led the company to helping build out USDC, a fully backed stable coin. Allaire believes that once there is a fiat digital currency model on public networks, this would drive the cost of transacting value close to zero. He also states that regulation of the crypto space implies acceptance from governments and institutions and that this is a good sign for crypto. Filmed on January 14, 2021. Key Learnings: Transacting in the traditional banking system is expensive and slow compared to the new crypto payment and settlement rails. Fiat digital currencies can assist in dramatically reducing the cost of value transactions and can grow the utility of crypto networks dramatically. Consequently, a secure fiat digital currency can encourage governments and institutions adopt crypto networks.

Recorded on Jan 14, 2021

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NASDAQ Goes Haywire as Powell Doubles Down Feb 24, 2021

Show notes

DB-Feb23,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry back to the Daily Briefing to make sense of how a jittery stock market copes with rising yields. Thornton analyzes this morning’s big sell-off in the NASDAQ with "growthy" names plunging double digits, and he explores whether technology could be poised for underperformance in the coming months. Thornton explains why he is bullish on the energy sector, noting that it is one of the few sectors with a reasonable short interest. Bennington and Thornton then review Fed Chair Powell’s testimony at the Senate Banking Committee, which perhaps was meant to assuage the markets.

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Brazilian Markets Crash and Energy Shines as Yields Break Higher Feb 23, 2021

Show notes

DB-Feb22,2021. Real Vision editor Jack Farley and managing editor Ed Harrison break down how rising yields are impacting risk assets such as growth equities and high-yield bonds. The pair review today’s price action, looking at everything from strength in oil and U.K. travel stocks to the significant sell-off in U.S. tech. Ed gives a primer on how rising yields dilute the value of assets with high duration and tells Jack why vaccination efforts in Europe are lagging behind the rest of the world. Later, Jack is joined by Weston Nakamura, former derivatives trader and head of the Real Vision Exchange, to analyze today’s price action in the Brazilian Real and Brazilian equities, which both plummeted as President Bolsonaro removed the CEO of Brazilian oil giant Petrobras. Ed and Jack close by looking at European fiscal as well as taking a sneak peek of tomorrow’s interview with John Hussman and Milton Berg.

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Challenging the Mainstream COVID-19 Lockdown Narrative (w/Mike Green, Nick Hudson & Russel Lamberti) Feb 21, 2021

Show notes

The Interview, Recorded on January 4, 2021In the fight against COVID-19, lockdowns have become a major policy tool used by governments around the world with a stated goal of limiting the spread of the virus and keeping hospitals from running out of capacity. Nick Hudson, CEO of Sana Partners, and Russell Lamberti, Founder of ETM Macro Advisors, are part of Pandemics Data and Analytics, or PANDA, a collective of leading scientists, actuaries, economists, data scientists, statisticians, medical professionals, lawyers, engineers and businesspeople working to challenge the mainstream narrative around lockdowns using scientific evidence that they argue shows that 1) lockdowns are not effective at their stated goals and 2) the secondary costs of lockdowns far outweigh the potential benefits. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Hudson and Lamberti introduce viewers to their organization and make the case that the COVID-19 response does not square with any of the pre-COVID pandemic response protocols that were updated in late 2019, that the effects of lockdowns on children and other marginalized groups have not been properly considered, and that lockdowns could set a dangerous political precedent. As well, Green plays the role of devil's advocate and challenges both guests on the real problems of measurable excess mortality and dwindling hospital capacity that cannot be denied. More information about PANDA, their members, and methodologies can be found at https://pandata.org.

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"Is Everything a Bubble?" Wrap-Up - Highlights and Takeaways for Today's Markets Feb 20, 2021

Show notes

Tune in for this special edition of the Daily Briefing to hear from editor Max Wiethe, managing editor Ed Harrison, and Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal . Together, they discuss their thoughts on the interviews from Real Vision’s campaign, “Is Everything a Bubble?” and explore how these various interviews all connect to what’s occurring in the markets right now. They will also answer questions from the audience about the campaign and Real Vision itself.

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Junk Yields Rising, Bitcoin Sniffing Out Yield Curve Control, and GameStop's Hearings Feb 19, 2021

Show notes

DB-Feb18,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Tyler Neville of Blockworks back to the Daily Briefing to share his thoughts on everything from implied volatility in the credit markets to the ongoing congressional hearings on GameStop’s remarkable rise and fall. Reporting from Austin, Texas, Neville shares his experience amid the ongoing arctic frost that is depriving so many Texans of electricity, heat, and running water as well as disrupting U.S. oil production by over 40%. Neville then shares with Harrison his analysis on lumber and homebuilding stocks and explores whether this crisis will cause secular inflation. Harrison and Neville then turn their gaze to the rising yields of U.S. Treasurys, which Neville thinks could be a wrecking ball for all risk assets. However, Neville argues that the Federal Reserve will enact yield curve control, and it is this possibility which Bitcoin and crypto investors have already “sniffed out.”

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VIX Dislocations, Hendry's Take on TLT, and Buffett's Sale of $GOLD Feb 18, 2021

Show notes

DB-Feb18,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe start the Daily Briefing by breaking down the latest stories, ranging from rolling blackouts in Texas to the congressional hearing surrounding GameStop to Berkshire Hathaway’s latest maneuvers. Then, Jack welcomes Eclectica Asset Management founder and former-CIO Hugh Hendry, who tells him about the interplay between real yields, gold, and silver as well as giving Real Vision a sneak peek of his short film, “An Intense Psychotic Cacophony.” Lastly, Jack speaks to Real Vision's Weston Nakamura about a dislocation Weston has noticed in the VIX futures market. For the latest edition of “Inside the Hive Mind,” click here: http://rvtv.io/HiveReportFeb.

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Tony Greer: "Commodity Inflation Is Happening Before Our Eyes" Feb 17, 2021

Show notes

DB-Feb17,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to provide analysis on the billowy price action in commodities. Greer looks at the market dynamics behind the rolling blackouts in Texas and discusses the oil curve steepening further into backwardation, allowing speculators to generate greater roll yield. Looking at similar phenomena in aluminum and copper, as well as the new relative highs in the VanEck Oil Services ETF ($OIH) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLE), Greer surmises that we could be seeing the dawn of a new bull market in commodities, which may lead to a commodity supercycle. Bennington asks Greer about his latest longs, which include Freeport-McMoran ($FCX) and several homebuilding stocks. Greer explains why he thinks put options offer a low risk/reward even with the VIX barely above 20. In sum, Greer thinks the liquidity faucets from the Federal Reserve will continue to buoy all assets higher, so investors should own assets—not cash.

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The Real Mechanics of Monetary Policy & Financial Plumbing (w/ Caitlin Long and Dr. Manmohan Singh) Feb 13, 2021

Show notes

The Interview, Recorded on December 7, 2020: If you are one of the few who have studied the mechanics of monetary policy and the plumbing of the financial system, most of what you learned may be out of date—that is, if you haven’t done so in the last five years. In this interview with Caitlin Long, CEO and founder of Avanti Financial Group, Dr. Manmohan Singh of the IMF explains the massive changes that have come about in the past decade and tries to dispel some of the preconceived notions many have about this complex system. In addition to this focus on the true mechanics of the current system, they also discuss the difficulty of trying to make sense of such an opaque and interconnected global system where laws and data reporting are not uniform from country to country. Moreover, Long and Singh zoom in on the tsunami of change that could be brought about by the growth of digital assets both inside and outside of the traditional financial system, and they highlight the intense focus on these developments by the private banking sector and bodies like the IMF.

. Viewers can find more of Dr. Singh's work here: https://www.risk.net/collateral-markets-and-financial-plumbing-3rd-edition and https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Publications-By-Author?author=Manmohan++Singh&name=Manmohan%20%20Singh

Key Learnings: The plumbing of the financial system continuously evolves as institutions, regulations, and technology change. Coming from entirely different perspectives, Long and Singh both stress the level of attention digital assets are receiving from the highest levels of global finance and how important they will be to the future development of the financial system.

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Bumble's IPO, The Yield Curve Migration, and a "Bubble" in Passive Investing? Feb 12, 2021

Show notes

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington and editor Jack Farley to break down recent price action and inspect current market conditions. They analyze the remarkable soaring of Bumble’s stock price after its initial public offering (IPO) with Ash and Ed exploring whether the ongoing market ebullience is evocative of 1999. Ed and Jack then discuss how rising yields for U.S. Treasurys affect banks earnings, the price of earnings, and investor behavior in the credit markets. After the three of them briefly explain how the rise of passive investing is impacting market flows, Ash shares his thoughts on the first publicly traded Bitcoin ETF in North America. Ash, Ed, and Jack relate these topics to recent “Is Everything a Bubble?” interviews with Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, Lyn Alden, and Russell Napier, and they look forward to next week’s interviews with Lacy Hunt, Tom Steyer, Felix Zulauf, and Mark Yusko. If you are not a member and you want access to these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/l/is-everything-a-bubble.

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