On The Market

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Hear Our Interview with Fortune’s Lance Lambert on the “Polarized” Housing Market

The Top 10 Housing Markets Forecasted For Strong Demand This Decade

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-107

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106: A BIG 2023 Economic Forecast from Harvard's Jason Furman May 22, 2023

Show notes

Rising interest rates, a new recession, high unemployment, and much more economic uncertainty could be on the way. But what can you expect after such a turbulent past few years? The US took significant financial and monetary moves to prevent an economic collapse in 2020, but as a result, mistakes were made. In 2023, we’re paying for the economic “errors” of our past, and many of them haven’t even caught up to us yet.

Jason Furman, Harvard professor and former Director of the National Economic Council under President Obama, brings both optimism and realism to share. In Jason’s eyes, the “supply-based inflation” argument isn’t holding up, and something much more severe is causing prices to rise as rapidly as they are. So how do we get out of this bind? Jason shares the scenarios that would have to unfold for us not to end up in a recession or with higher interest rates, but reality foreshadows something much different.

When will we break out of this constant cycle of price hikes? What has to happen for the Fed to finally take its foot off the gas? Will today’s strong employment last, or do jobs need to be cut for the economy to recover? Stick around to hear these questions, and many more, answered by one of the world’s leading economists.

In This Episode We Cover

2023 economic forecasts from one of the world’s leading economists

The true cause of today’s rampant inflation and what could finally force it to stop

The “wage-price persistence” and why most people are wrong about price hikes

Economic “errors” of 2020 and 2021 that we’ll be paying back for years to come

Rising rates and whether or not the Fed is really done with bumping basis points

Unemployment and how long today’s strong job market will actually last

Consequences of the US defaulting on its debt and the scary-enough odds that it could happen

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

“Catastrophic” Consequences of the US Defaulting on Its Debt

The Fed Starts Playing “Mind Games” as Rates Rise, Home Prices Fall

Connect with Jason:

Jason's Twitter

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-106

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105: America’s Largest Wealth Transfer Has Begun, Are You Ready? w/Chris Martenson May 19, 2023

Show notes

The most significant wealth transfer in American history could be upon us. As money-printing mania continues worldwide, dollars (and most other currencies) are worth less and less, while tangible assets, like real estate, are worth more. This is bad news for the average American, with most of their wealth trapped in a bank account or stock portfolio. If the most commonly used assets, like bonds, equities, and cash, become worthless, what happens to America?

To help answer this seemingly unfathomable question is Chris Martenson, CEO of Peak Prosperity. Chris spent his early career working for some of the largest corporations in America, but after bubbles started to burst in the early 2000s, he took a look into the inner workings of the American economy. What initially started as a simple interest became an all-consuming quest to understand why political executives and massive institutions like the Federal Reserve were making irrational choices for the American people.

In today’s show, Chris uncovers the truth behind quantitative easing, money-printing, and the Fed’s consistent financial swerving. He’ll also explain why bubbles are starting to burst in today’s economy, how interest rates had a large part to play in inflation, the new reality of de-dollarization, and why we may be on the cusp of the largest wealth transfer in American history. If Chris is correct, we could enter an entirely new era of the economy, one that only a few of us will thrive in.

In This Episode We Cover

Money-printing and the true effects of the Fed’s massive quantitative easing

Asset price bubbles and which are the closest to bursting in 2023

Interest rate hikes and how they’ve contributed to hideous inflation

De-dollarization and how America’s wealth could be at risk if USD loses its global status

Defaulting on the US debt and what happens if the government can’t pay its bills

The new American wealth transfer and why only these “productive” assets will survive

The most important “capital” anyone can have if/when the economy breaks down

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Commercial Real Estate Could Crash, But Are Everyday Investors Impacted?

The BIG Economic Implications of US Bank Failures

Get Real Estate Market Insights from Cohen & Steers

Connect with Richard:

Richard's LinkedIn

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-105

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104: Huge Commercial Opportunities Arise as Hysteria Reaches Its Peak w/Richard Hill May 15, 2023

Show notes

Multifamily and commercial real estate has been the butt of the joke over the past year. As mortgage rates started to rise, commercial real estate investors were hit hard, as profits became pitiful and asking prices laughable. For months, the media has been predicting a commercial real estate crash, citing a wave of mortgages coming due with sellers who won’t be able to pay the high price of a refinance. And while these fundamentals aren’t wrong, a mortgage meltdown might not be a reality.

So instead of speculating, we brought on Richard Hill, Head of Real Estate Strategy & Research at Cohen & Steers, to differentiate the facts from fiction. Richard knows that loans are coming due, and buyers with low-rate adjustable mortgages may be in trouble. But that’s not the whole story, and some parts of commercial real estate could be primed for massive growth that residential investors have no clue about. The opportunities could be flowing soon for those who know where to look.

In this episode, Richard will talk about the true risk of commercial real estate mortgages, which sectors are in the most trouble, which are being blown out of proportion, and how much investors can expect prices to drop. Plus, Richard gives his take on the three best times to invest in a quickly changing market like we’re seeing today.

In This Episode We Cover

The commercial real estate “crash” and how far prices will actually fall

Commercial debt coming due and which sectors have the highest risk

Bank failures and what’s causing big banks to dump their commercial loans

The future of financing for commercial investments and whether funding will become a challenge

Mortgage exposure and why demanding LTV (loan-to-value) requirements make for better investments

The astronomical tax implications of defaulting on your mortgage (DON’T Do this)

When to buy and which industries are primed for growth in the next few years

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Commercial Real Estate Could Crash, But Are Everyday Investors Impacted?

The BIG Economic Implications of US Bank Failures

Get Real Estate Market Insights from Cohen & Steers

Links from the Show

Richard's LinkedIn

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-104

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103: Q2 2023 Housing Market Update: Homebuying Could Get MUCH Harder May 12, 2023

Show notes

Homebuyers are gearing up for a hot summer housing market as demand starts to surge. At the beginning of 2023, nobody thought it possible that we’d be in the position we’re in today. Days on market have shrunk in some areas as listing attendance explodes and buyers' home-owning dreams resurface. But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows in the world of real estate; something bleak is on the horizon for large-scale investors.

We’re halfway through Q2 of 2023, and the real estate market is changing fast month by month. Multifamily buyers are sitting on the sidelines, foaming at the mouth to dig in on deals that will soon be dead, but primary residence shoppers are facing another challenge. With a lack of inventory and mortgage rates on the verge of falling again, the buyers who were kicked out of the market last year are hungry to get back in the game.

Don’t know whether now is the right time to buy your next rental property? Kathy and James give up-to-date advice on what they’re pursuing in today’s market and whether or not now is the time to get aggressive. If you want to get the data these (and many other) experts use to make their investment decisions, check out Dave’s newest Q2 housing market report!

In This Episode We Cover

A Q1 housing market roundup and why the market flipped even with high mortgage rates

New inflation data and why consumer prices aren’t dropping yet

Whether or not another interest rate hike could hit homebuyers this year

Housing demand and why sellers are seeing a BIG boost in buyer activity

Our Q2 housing market predictions and what to do if you’re on the fence about investing

The BEST online sources to pull housing data from, plus Dave’s newest Q2 housing market report

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Connect with Other Investors on the “On the Market” Forums

Grab the Q2 Report

Past Episodes Mentioned in Today’s Show:

Altos Research

Rocket Mortgage

Data Sources Mentioned:

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-103

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102: The $1.5T Ticking Time Bomb and Our Return to a “Normal” Housing Market May 08, 2023

Show notes

Don’t you miss the “normal” housing market? You know, a few years back when buyers didn’t have to bludgeon other bidders just to get into a reasonably priced house? The times when the average American could afford a roof over their head, and sellers actually had a reason to put their homes on the market. Well, we may be returning to a “normal” housing market faster than you think, but a few key things will need to happen first.

We’re back on On the Market, bringing you the most up-to-date housing market headlines, separating fact from fiction, and giving you everything you need to know to make the best investment decisions. This time, we’re running through four of the top stories in our newsfeeds. First, James touches on the $1.5T ticking time bomb that commercial real estate faces and what happens if a wave of debt gets defaulted on.

Next, we’ll shift into more residential territory as Kathy dissects the “divided” housing market and updates us on how post-pandemic boomtowns are faring. Then, a return to normalcy, as Henry hits on how the 2023’s housing market correction could give homebuyers some leverage they deserve. Finally, mortgage rate updates and whether or not the spring season of homebuying will “survive” as buyers see a bump in their rates. Stick around to get all the info you need to build your real estate portfolio, so when ChatGPT takes your job, you’ll have some passive income to rely on!

In This Episode We Cover

Post-inflation car, food, and gas prices and Kathy’s $20 carton of eggs

Commercial real estate debt and what happens if owners start to default

The “divided” housing market and how cities that saw MASSIVE appreciation are faring now

The 2023 real estate correction and good news for buyers as the market starts to stabilize

Mortgage rate bumps and whether or not this will hurt the traditionally hectic spring homebuying season

Using ChatGPT to find real estate deals, write property descriptions, and get more deals done

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

Henry's Instagram

Jamil's BiggerPockets Profile

Jamil's Instagram

2023 Housing Market Correction

Articles Mentioned in Today’s Show:

Commercial Debt

Divided Housing Market

Will Spring’s Market “Survive?

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-102

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101: What High Mortgage Rates Did to The Housing Market w/Rocket Mortgage President, Tim Birkmeier May 05, 2023

Show notes

High mortgage rates chewed up and spit out homebuyers, loan officers, and the mortgage industry. With a bump of a few percentage points, buyers exited the market quickly, and the number of mortgages got cut in half almost instantly. But what else can you expect from the most significant mortgage rate movement in forty years? Now, nearly a year after mortgage rates took their initial hike, there may be some hope on the horizon that we’re returning to better days for both buyers and sellers.

But who better to ask about mortgages than the President of Rocket Mortgage, Tim Birkmeier? Tim has been in the mortgage industry for over two decades, working his way up from loan officer to president, helping turn Rocket Mortgage from a regional company into America’s largest mortgage lender. He knows loans inside and out and has some predictions on how loans could change over the next few years.

Tim touches on why FHA loans are seeing a comeback (especially as their fees get cut), why HELOCs are in an equity-based revival, and how to “lock in” your mortgage rate so you don’t get stuck buying when basis points jump up. So if you’re itching to get back in the real estate game but don’t know how long high mortgage rates will last, stick around! Tim has answers only an industry-leading expert would know.

In This Episode We Cover

Mortgage rate hikes and what 6% interest rates did to the housing market

FHA’s comeback and why your mortgage insurance cost is about to go down

Upgrading vs. moving and why homeowners and taking more equity out than ever before

Rate buydowns and Rocket’s “Inflation Buster” program to keep your payment low

New digital mortgage transactions and the future of getting approved

Buyer demand and whether or not the seller stalemate will soon be over

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Dave’s BiggerPockets Profile

Dave’s Instagram

2023 Mortgage Rate Outlook

Connect with Tim:

Tim's LinkedIn

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-101

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100: High Credit Borrowers Get Punished and New Landlord Laws Put Tenants First May 01, 2023

Show notes

Got a high credit score? Your mortgage could get more expensive. And no, this episode isn’t releasing on Opposite Day. New mortgage rules are incentivizing those with poor credit while punishing those that have built up their credit. And while this may seem like we’re venturing back to the days of subprime mortgages, there may be some real reasoning behind this newest mortgage rule change.

Welcome to the 100th episode of On the Market! It’s been a year since our first episode, and thanks to Dave, Henry, James, Jamil, and Kathy, we’ve rocked the charts with some of the most up-to-date real estate data around. This time, Dave and our panel of guests will share their favorite episodes and go over some of the latest headlines affecting the housing market.

First, we’ll touch on how mortgage rules have changed and why high credit score borrowers could be in the crosshairs for more expensive fees. Next, California targets the upper-middle-class, kind-of-wealthy, but not-so-ultra-rich residents with their newest “mansion tax,” which targets houses that aren’t exactly mansions! Finally, a fractional ownership debate and an update on the latest landlord law that could give tenants more property protections.

Thanks for joining us for 100 episodes of On the Market! And special thanks to our producer, Kailyn Bennett, for making it all happen. Here’s to 100 more episodes!

In This Episode We Cover

New mortgage updates that could hurt high credit score borrowers

California’s “mansion tax” and how it could affect far more than the “ultra-rich”

Factional real estate investing and whether owning a “share” of a rental will ever beat buying properties

Colorado’s latest landlords law proposal that could change the way you do leasing

Homeownership for all and how unaffordability is putting pressure on lawmakers

The On the Market panel’s favorite episodes of all time!

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent

Lender Finder

BiggerPockets Forums

BiggerPockets Agent

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Dave’s BiggerPockets Profile

Dave’s Instagram

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

Henry's Instagram

Jamil's BiggerPockets Profile

Jamil's Instagram

Homebuyers Are Getting Crushed: Are Landlords the Cause?

Why NFL Players Are Buying Real Estate During the Recession

SVB’s Risky Bailout and The Bank Run “Domino Effect”

2 Real Deals in 2023 That Could Come with Big Red Flags

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-100

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99: How to Comp a House (EVEN During a Housing Correction) Apr 28, 2023

Show notes

Don’t know how to run comps on a house? This single skill could be costing you, or making you, hundreds of thousands on every deal you do. No matter what level of real estate investor you are—rookie, intermediate, veteran—the ability to comp correctly will put you above the rest as you walk away from deals far richer than other investors. And during a housing market correction like we’re in today, this skill isn’t just something that’ll make you more money—it’s what will stop you from going broke.

Comping, formally known as pulling comparables, is putting a potential property up against other properties in the area, finding a comparable price, and seeing how much can be made on a deal. Most real estate investors have pulled comps a few dozen times, but investors like James Dainard and Jamil Damji calculate THOUSANDS of comps monthly. They’re looking for the profitable property needle in the housing market haystack, and as two self-made multimillionaires, their experience shows that they know what they’re talking about.

In this episode, James and Jamil will show you EXACTLY how expert investors comp properties, what you need to look out for when calculating your own, and the “appraisal rules” that were taken DIRECTLY from the source on valuing properties. The tips in this episode could make you six figures more on your next deal. DON’T miss this.

In This Episode We Cover

How to determine the value of ANY property in ANY location

Comping explained and why you MUST have this skill to invest in real estate successfully

The “appraisal rules” Jamil uses to get perfect comps on any deal he does

Cities vs. suburbs and the BIG mistake investors can make when comping these two areas

Where to find property information and the ONE source you should always start with

Comping during a housing market corrections and what to do when prices start to slide

The ONE tweak James made that helped his recent house flip make $100K+ more

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Find an Investor-Friendly Real Estate Agent

BiggerPockets Forums

BiggerPockets Agent

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Dave’s BiggerPockets Profile

Dave’s Instagram