On The Market

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What An Analysis Of 295 Housing Markets Told Me About The National Market

The 8 Worst and Best Housing Markets in The US (2023 Edition)

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-117

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116: Asset Allocation 101 and Revealing Millionaire Investment Portfolios Jun 23, 2023

Show notes

Asset allocation is arguably the most crucial step in building wealth. While most people think just buying rentals is enough, having the money set aside to protect those rentals, and subsidize your business during rough markets, can make or break your real estate portfolio. In the last crash, those entirely in real estate saw their wealth dwindle to nothing while diversified investors held strong, scooping up deals at a steep discount, making millions in the coming decade.

Now, with many investors fearful that we’re on the edge of another crash, James Dainard and Kathy Fettke have stepped in to give advice only multi-decade millionaires know of. Dave, James, and Kathy will be breaking down their exact investment portfolios, walking through what they own, what they don’t, and how they structured their wealth to stay safe without stagnating.

They’ll also share their advice on what to invest in TODAY, how to diversify your portfolio so you don’t get liquidated in the next crash, what they’d buy with $100,000, and “risk-free” investments like bonds still boasting favorable returns. Whether you’re just starting to invest or are looking to optimize your passive income, this episode is for you!

In This Episode We Cover

Asset allocation 101 and why it is SO crucial to building (and keeping) wealth

Revealing our multimillion-dollar investment portfolios and how we designate our dollars

Kathy’s short-term rental bet and house hacking EVEN while you’re financially free

Geographic diversification vs. asset diversification and whether the market or asset matters more

Protecting yourself during a real estate crash and what James wishes he did last time

Bonds and “risk-free” investments that could give you a stress-free return

And So Much More!

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The Biggest Real Estate Tax Loophole You’ve (Probably) Never Heard Of

How Much Investment Diversification Is Right for You?

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-116

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115: How the Housing Market Could Correct WITHOUT Home Prices Falling w/Black Knight’s Andy Walden Jun 19, 2023

Show notes

Home prices could become affordable without any of us noticing. In fact, home prices don’t even have to fall for the housing market to enter into a mild correction. With affordability hitting lows that we haven’t seen since the seventies and eighties, what could save today’s home buyers from paying for one of the most expensive mortgage payments of all time? Something must be done. And thankfully, it might already be happening.

If you want to know the truth behind silent housing corrections, market-abandoning buyers, and where we could be headed, you better ask Andy Walden from Black Knight. We brought Andy on the show to talk about everything from mortgage rates to unaffordability, delinquencies, foreclosure fears, and what can be done to help our home buyers. Andy spends all day, every day, playing with some of the most vital proprietary property data sets imaginable, and he has an answer to almost every question.

In this episode, Andy speaks on the housing market correction that could happen without home prices falling, why more home buyers are leaving the market, how mortgage rates could fall without the Fed’s input, and what could cause delinquencies to finally rise.

In This Episode We Cover

The silent housing correction and what could cause affordability to rise

Mortgage rate lock activity and why we’re hitting all-time lows for home buying

Bond yields, mortgage spreads, and how rates could fall without the Fed intervening

The housing inventory crisis that’s causing home prices to stagnate

Delinquency forecasts and two big events that would put homeowners in a tight spot

And So Much More!

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Grab the Latest Mortgage Monitor

What Is a Housing Market Correction and How Does It Really Impact You?

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Work with Andy and His Team

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-115

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114: Home Price Predictions, Affordability False Flags, and 40-Year Mortgages Jun 16, 2023

Show notes

Housing market forecasts, affordability false flags, forty-year mortgages, and a baby boomer shopping spree. Today, we’re touching on anything and everything affecting the housing market as the full On the Market panel joins Dave Meyer to answer YOUR most-asked questions. Dave has been collecting questions from viewers to have a rapid-fire question-answering round with some of today’s top real estate investing experts. If you want to know what will happen next in the housing market, tune in!

We invited the whole crew to give their opinions on today’s investing market. We’ll talk about whether the real estate market’s “crash” is tied to stock performance, affordability and how ADUs (accessory dwelling units) may have shot home prices even higher, and the new forty-year mortgage and whether or not it’s a safe option for everyday home buyers. But, we’re also peaking into our crystal balls to give some BIG housing market predictions for the next few decades.

Kathy talks about how average home prices could hit seven figures (seriously!) within our lifetime and why buying now may be your last chance to snag an “affordable” home. Then, to wrap things up, our expert guests share which asset class they’d invest in TODAY that could lead to a HUGE payoff in just a few years. The market is changing; stick around so you’re not left behind!

In This Episode We Cover

What we’d invest in TODAY that could see HUGE profits in the next few years

Finding the housing market’s bottom and whether or not we’ve already hit it

Housing affordability and why ADUs (accessory dwelling units) may have hurt home buyers

A thirty-year real estate prediction and how high home prices could get

The new forty-year mortgage, who’s applicable to get one, and affordable loan options

Baby boomer buyers, rising birth rates, and demographic trends that could seriously affect the market

Mortgage rates explained and why lenders won’t undercut their competition

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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Hear Our Interview with Chris Martenson

Housing is Unaffordable, But Could It Actually Get Worse?

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113: ‘08 Crash Predictor Ivy Zelman on The Biggest Danger Facing Real Estate Today Jun 12, 2023

Show notes

The housing market is stuck. Stubborn homeowners with low rates refuse to move, even as demand starts to pick back up. Homebuilders are driving ahead with more new construction homes, but is it too late to deliver the supply we so desperately needed only a year or two ago? Where is the housing market moving next, and how long will we be stuck in this standoff? Ivy Zelman from Zelman & Associates successfully predicted the last housing crash, so what does she have to say about today’s market?

Ivy is a thought leader in the real estate research space. Her credibility has been showcased repeatedly as her team accurately forecasts numerous housing market moves. Constantly on the phone with institutional buyers and builders, Ivy tends to know what’s happening before even the top forecasters. In this episode, Ivy gives her opinion on today’s housing market, why buyers and sellers are “stuck,” and whether or not the “underbuilding” problem is even an issue as demographic trends start getting dangerous.

She also shares which real estate markets are in the most danger, the concerning catastrophe facing many southern states, and the markets she’s most bullish on that could withstand the test of time. But, more importantly, Ivy shares her thoughts on whether or not real estate is still worth investing in and why it may be time for landlords to diversify into other assets that don’t come with such a considerable risk.

In This Episode We Cover

The single greatest danger affecting the housing market in 2023

The new vs. existing home challenge and why homeowners are stuck in place

Affordable housing and why the “underbuilding problem” isn’t what you think it is

“Tremendous” competition for rentals and which investors should be concerned

Underrated housing markets that are seeing strong demand and demographic tailwinds

2008 vs. 2023 and whether another housing crash is even feasible in today’s market

And So Much More!

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Hear Our Last Interview with Ivy

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Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-113

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112: Home Sales Forecast and Returning to a 1990s Housing Market w/Mark Fleming Jun 09, 2023

Show notes

Home sales have been falling fast since interest rates rose last year. After a spree of house shopping and record-low mortgage rates, homeowners sit comfortably in 2023. They’ve got affordable monthly payments, a home that is (probably) bigger or better than their last one, and expect a potential recession sometime soon. So why would today’s homeowners give up all that security to buy in a hazardous market? Mark Fleming from First American has been trying to uncover the answer.

Mark serves as Chief Economist for First American, one of the United State’s leading title companies. Mark’s job is to predict and forecast the housing market, home sales, and buyer activity. And in 2023’s topsy-turvy economy, this is becoming a little more difficult. Mark has built a model to help predict home sales, looking at key factors like household formation, affordability, current mortgage rates, demographics, and more. And he’s got some interesting findings to share.

The days of low interest rates and property upgrading may be over. Homeowners are now staying in their houses for twice as long, holding off on buying their next home until favorable conditions arise. But, this creates a “prisoner’s dilemma” for home sellers and buyers. With most of the United State’s potential property inventory sitting in the hands of those who refuse to sell, we’re answering, “What happens next?” in this episode.

In This Episode We Cover

Home sales predictions and what happens when there is NO available inventory

Loose monetary policy and how low interest rates caused an affordability spike

Two critical factors that drive the market to soar or slump

Home turnover and why today’s homeowner is “locked-in” and refusing to move

The “prisoner’s dilemma” that’s caused the housing market to stagnate

A return to the “new normal” and what future homebuying could look like

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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Inventory Shortage Could Continue As Interest Rates Rise and Homeowners Feel “Locked-In”

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First American

REconomy Podcast

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-112

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111: The Recession-Proof, Low-Risk Way to Invest in Real Estate Jun 07, 2023

Show notes

Everyone wants to know how to get rich in a recession. The problem? With many asset prices plummeting and a bipolar real estate market, parking cash in any asset could be considered a risk. But, a particular sect of real estate still makes money even if the housing market starts to crash and home prices freefall. This is one of the lowest-risk ways to start investing, especially during a recession, and it made our expert guests, James Dainard and Jamil Damji, very wealthy.

James and Jamil have been using this strategy since the early 2000s. When home prices started plummeting in 2008, buying rentals became risky, and fix and flips got decimated. Thankfully, this often misunderstood type of “investing” allowed them to capitalize on the price action, picking up deals that would make great buys and passing them along to buyers who could hold their own during the crash. This same strategy still makes them millions of dollars today, and you can start using it!

In Jamil’s newest book, How to Wholesale Real Estate, you’ll learn how to build a scalable wholesale business without much cash, experience, or contacts. This is one of the BEST ways for new investors to get started and is a phenomenal source of supplemental income for investors and flippers who have too many deals on their desks. Think it’s too late to make money in an economy like this? Think again!

In This Episode We Cover

Jamil’s newest book, How to Wholesale Real Estate, and using it to get your first deal done

Wholesaling explained and why “trading” real estate may be better than investing in it

Recession-proof real estate investing and why wholesaling is one of the lowest-risk ways to start making money in real estate

Million-dollar relationships and the people you MUST have in your circle to be successful

Finding buyers and why investors don’t disappear even when home prices start to fall

The housing markets that are on FIRE for wholesalers (and which are showing HUGE opportunity)

And So Much More!

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Book Mentioned in the Show:

How to Wholesale Real Estate by Jamil Damji (use code “WHOLESALE110” to get 10% off)

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-111

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110: Bullish Homebuilders, Affordable Housing, and Why Home Prices WON'T Move w/John Burns Jun 05, 2023

Show notes

The housing market REFUSES to slow down. Last year, homebuilders had a bleak outlook for 2023 home buying, but now, not even halfway through the year, they’ve reversed their sentiment with high hopes that demand stays red hot. How is this even happening? With mortgage rates higher than they’ve been in years and barely any inventory on the market, wouldn’t buyers take the hint and let their foot off the gas? We brought back John Burns from John Burns Research and Consulting to give us some answers.

John’s team has some of the freshest housing market data available. With over 1,000 research contracts a year, they’re constantly talking to homebuilders, buyers, flippers, and everyone in the home-buying process. John touches on household formation and why millennials are saying “no” to roommates, even as prices rise. He’ll also talk about where Americans are moving, what’s causing construction costs to come down (but also grow?), and why the Fed is failing to kill the housing market.

Also, if you want to give a hand to the generation helping young buyers the most, it seems that baby boomers are having an unexpectedly significant role in propping up the economy. We’ll also get into new affordable housing projects that could bring more starter homes on the market. Want to know John’s thoughts on what could happen in the housing market over the coming months? Stick around!

In This Episode We Cover

Why high mortgage rates HAVEN’T killed the housing market yet

American migration and which states are starting to see stagnating populations

Multifamily rent updates and why tenants may have the upper hand

New builds, cheaper material costs, and why your next home may be a new construction

INSANE debt-to-equity stats that highlight why homeowners refuse to sell

New affordable housing projects that could give homebuyers better options

And So Much More!

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On the Market 31 with John

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Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-110

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109: “It’s Coming THIS Year” Fundrise’s Ben Miller on The 2023 Financial Crash Jun 02, 2023

Show notes

There have been a lot of market crash predictions over the past few years. Since the 2020 flash crash and subsequent asset price skyrocketing, investors have always had an inkling that this wouldn’t last. Once inflation hit decade-long highs, the Fed stepped in to quell constant price pumping, but that came with even higher mortgage rates. Now, commercial real estate investors and everyone else with short-term financing are stuck in a bind. Once these loans come due, they’ll either have to pay them off, refinance, or face foreclosure. So, what happens next?

While Dave Meyer and James Dainard are housing market experts, neither know macroeconomic data as well as Fundrise’s Ben Miller, whose job is to predict market patterns and make the best investing decisions. Last time we talked to Ben, he hit on the “Great Deleveraging,” which would force a massive commercial real estate crash, but today he’s talking about bank failures, a financial collapse timeline, and what he’s buying as soon as the market drops.

The wealthiest in America know that market crashes and financial collapses aren’t a time to worry; they’re a time to make millions! Ben shares the markets with the most opportunity, how to pick up properties for dimes on the dollar, and why hoarding cash during a time like this isn’t such a bad idea. So don’t fear market downturns like this; take advantage of them!

In This Episode We Cover

The “Great Deleveraging” explained and why commercial real estate prices will fall fast

Bank collapses and what happens when liquidity starts to run dry

Quantitative easing and whether the Fed will continue to inject the market with money

Assets to keep an eye on during the crash and what Ben is buying

Loans, lending, and what investors can do when banks won’t fund their deals

Market crash predictions and when Ben expects the situation to escalate

And So Much More!

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