On The Market

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On The Market 390 - An Economic Bubble is Forming…Just Not for Real Estate

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The Path to 8% Mortgage Rates Sep 29, 2026

Show notes

8% mortgage rates are now on the table, and unfortunately, that’s not even the high end of estimates for where we’re going next. With bond yields hitting 20-year peaks and no end in sight for rising inflation, we may be stuck here for a while. If you’re starting to sweat, don’t worry—we are, too. Thankfully, it’s not all bad news for the housing market, because those who pivot will profit.

After a little too much anxiety, Dave called James and Kathy to get their read on mortgage rates—what does an investor do when refinancing is off the table, selling means cutting prices and concessions, and even renovating is still so expensive? The housing market is splitting, with some sides doing great, and the others struggling to survive.

James gives his full take on how flips, renovations, and BRRRRs are doing right now, plus why he’s still excited for what is about to come in winter. Kathy is loving the builder concessions that are only getting more plentiful as rates rise, with a surprising rental helping float her portfolio. Dave is still a bit nervous and asks: should he sell the house he’s living in?

Buyers, this winter is about to be a big one. Sellers, it’s time to prepare. Investors, look at your property plans immediately after this episode.

In This Episode We Cover

The case for 8% mortgage rates (or even 11%-12% rates in the near future!)

Why we (probably) still won’t see a housing crash scenario

How to change your investment property plan if refinancing or selling was your exit

It’s about to be a “dead winter” for sellers, but what about for buyers?

Should Dave sell his own home and go back to renting? (serious question!)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

HousingWire: Mortgage rates: 8%, 6% or the base case?

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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The Housing Market Correction Is Spreading Sep 24, 2026

Show notes

The housing market correction is about to get worse. Before, the Northeast and Midwest markets were insulated from the sizable price drops happening in places like Texas and Florida, but not anymore. The correction is spreading, and the once “safe” markets are creeping closer and closer to price cuts, concessions, and desperate sellers becoming the norm.

The question is: does this snowball into a full-blown housing crash, or is the housing market strong enough to keep us in “correction” territory? Dave is back, and this time, he’s going deep on what’s next for the housing market.

Things are changing, and not in the way sellers would want. Demand is starting to fall as buyers get boxed out of the market and high mortgage rates make homes more unaffordable. Sellers once stuck to their prices or took properties off the market to wait, but now they're offering sizable concessions andprice cuts. The supply-demand equilibrium has shifted, and deals are about to get even sweeter.

So, if you’re buying today when prices very well could continue to slide, how much of a discount should you go for, and at what point do prices start to bottom?

In This Episode We Cover

Signs of more seller distress as concessions rise and price cuts grow

Why you should not believe the home price appreciation most data reports

The real reason why homebuying demand is steadily falling, and sellers have fewer options

The housing market “flip”: Why safer markets (Midwest, Northeast) could start to see price pressure

How much of a discount you should ask for when buying in this housing market

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

Calculated Risk Blog

Grab the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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Rates Were Hiked: Here’s What Investors Should Do Now Sep 22, 2026

Show notes

The Federal Reserve hiked rates last week, but did it actually help the housing market? Our panel of real estate investing experts isn’t all that bummed by potentially higher rates and less housing market activity—why? Because new opportunities are forming thanks to the Fed’s recent rate hike—opportunities that could make deals even better to buy in 2026 and into 2027.

We’re back discussing the biggest housing market headlines from last week. Obviously, we can’t talk about headlines without touching on the Fed meeting and subsequent rate hike. Ripples from that decision could start showing up in the real estate market soon—price cuts for some properties, canceled listings for others, and stalled sellers who refuse to budge but won’t get bids.

So, what should investors do now to ensure they’re picking up solid deals with the likelihood that prices could continue dropping across many markets? The full panel is sharing what they’re actually doing now—from paying points to cutting insurance costs, getting HELOCs ready, and more.

You can use this market to your advantage—and we already are.

In This Episode We Cover

The aftermath of the first Fed rate hike since 2023 (and what it means for home prices)

Trump's 1% federal funds rate demand and whether it could actually happen

Will sellers begin pulling out of the market as buyers begin to drop off?

What we’re doing right now to buy better deals and sell the ones that aren’t performing

The things that must be solved before interest rates can come back down

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

On The Market 461 - You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

Quartz: Trump demands 1% interest rates after Fed hike, backs Warsh

Reuters: US homebuilder sentiment drops to 12-month low in September

Grab Henry’s Book, Real Estate Deal Maker

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You’re Not Gonna Like What Happens to Mortgage Rates Sep 17, 2026

Show notes

The U.S. government may have just lost the war on mortgage rates.

Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced one of its biggest bond buyback programs in years—a whopping $6 billion allocated to (hopefully) lower bond yields, and by proxy, interest rates. Not only did it backfire, but it may have angered the bond investors so much that the market’s recovery is now in jeopardy. Do we still have any hope of lowering bond yields and mortgage rates so the housing market can get back in business?

Today, we’re breaking down the good, the bad, and the ugly buybacks of the bond market, how this will affect your mortgage rates over the next year, and what can be done to spur confidence in bond yields (and the U.S. government). Dave even gives his mortgage rate prediction for 2027, with a range of where we could end up by this time next year.

If rates stay high and housing demand gets even more subdued, the buying opportunities, price cuts, and seller concessions could only increase. Are you going to take advantage?

In This Episode We Cover

A full update on the bond market and how the U.S. government is trying to save yields

Dave’s 2027 mortgage rate prediction and whether we could go even higher than we are now

The failed bond “buyback” strategy that could take a long time to recover from

Three reasons whybond yields (and mortgage rates) are surging right now

How the Fed raising rates could actually lower your mortgage rate in the future

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

On The Market 436 - The Fed Signals a Reversal in Rates

Grab Dave’s Book, Start with Strategy

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This Is Better Than the 1% Rule (New Real Estate Rule) Sep 15, 2026

Show notes

The rules of real estate investing have changed.

For years, investors were using the one-percent rule to quickly determine if a real estate deal would cash flow. But the one-percent rule, rent-to-price ratio, and other common rules of thumb have a glaring blind spot. They account for purchase price, but they don’t account for expenses.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance have all risen across the board—expenses that can easily kill your cash flow.

So, Dave’s come up with a new rule of thumb you can use to quickly analyze rental properties and markets. He’s calling it the rent-to-payment ratio. By comparing estimated rents to the estimated PITI payment itself, you’ll have a much better idea of whether a rental property will actually cash flow month to month.

And today, we’re not just breaking down how the formula works. Dave also built an entire spreadsheet that ranks U.S. real estate markets by their rent-to-payment ratios. Whether you’re looking for the best cash flow markets to invest in or a quick way to weed out unprofitable properties, this is the kind of math you need to make sharper investing decisions in 2026.

In This Episode We Cover

The “new” rule of thumb for finding great real estate deals and rental markets

Why rent-to-price ratio is a flawed metric (and which ratio to use instead)

Why the popular one-percent rule no longer works in 2026

The top 10 real estate markets with the highest rent-to-payment ratios

How to bake today’s mortgage rates, taxes, and insurance into your initial analysis

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show!

BiggerPockets Calculators

The Summer 2026 Rent-to-Payment Report: Where You Can Still Cash Flow with Real Estate

Grab Dave’s book, Real Estate by the Numbers

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We Asked Brokers: Where Is the Biggest Buyer's Market Today? Sep 10, 2026

Show notes

Are the price cuts deeper than you think? Do buyers have even more power than we’ve been led to believe?

National housing data tells us one thing, but local-level expertise can paint a completely different picture. While national data points to marginal price cuts, brokers in major markets are seeing significantly more volatile numbers. We wanted to know what’s actually happening in big markets like Austin, Atlanta, Seattle, Tampa, Long Island, and beyond—so we called the actual brokers who do business there and got them on the show.

Today, we’re talking with Justin Hroch, Micah Mortag, and William ODonnell, brokers in the South, Southeast, and Northeast doing real deals for buyers, sellers, and investors. It’s no surprise that areas like the South are struggling, but how is (very expensive) New York faring with a changing political landscape and so many more regulations?

We’re getting into how long homes are sitting on the market, how much power buyers and sellers have, the price cuts you can anticipate, and what to look at before you buy a property in any of these markets.

In This Episode We Cover

Areas of the country seeing the biggest price cuts or bidding wars

What type of properties are selling fast even in slow markets like the South

The cities being buried in inventory where sellers are taking big haircuts on price

One market seeing strong appreciation, even in 2026 (we’re talking 8% price jumps!)

The “sweet spot” properties you can find in each of these areas to make a profit (regardless of how the market moves)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

On The Market 450 - A Buyer’s Summer Is “On” as Asking Prices See Steepest Decline Since 2017

Justin's BiggerPockets Profile

Micah's BiggerPockets Profile

William's BiggerPockets Profile

Realtor August Housing Report

Grab The Book on Negotiating Real Estate

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Fewer Investors Are Buying Homes as the Housing Market Shifts (Again) Sep 08, 2026

Show notes

The housing market is sending mixed signals—or so it seems. Foreclosures are rising, yet many investors are pulling back. Cash buyers are retreating, competition is cooling in many markets, and affordability challenges appear to be catching up with investors. Are these signs of another 2008-like collapse, or is there context behind the numbers?

This week’s headlines largely point to waning investor activity. Investor home purchases are down, and the share of cash buyers is decreasing. Meanwhile, foreclosures are returning to levels we haven’t seen in several years.

But when you dig beneath the surface, nothing is as dire as it appears. Pent-up foreclosure starts are still well below historical norms. And while the market continues to cool in many areas, it’s creating rare opportunities and negotiation power for investors who are willing to go against the grain.

So where are these opportunities hiding, what secret “edge” do mom-and-pop investors have that others overlook, and how do you ensure today’s deals don’t become tomorrow’s disasters? We’re breaking it all down on today’s show.

In This Episode We Cover

How small investors can gain an edge in the current housing market

Why rising foreclosures aren’t the “warning sign” most think it is

New investing opportunities coming from decreased competition

Why many investors are leaving the housing market in 2026

How affordability challenges and regulatory risks are affecting investors

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

ATTOM: Foreclosure Activity Posts Annual Increase in First Half of 2026

Redfin: Investor Home Purchases Fall to Lowest Level Since 2020

CNBC: Cash Is No Longer King in Home Sales

Mortgage Defaults and Foreclosures Are Surging in Key Markets: What Investors Need to Know

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

Buy the Book, Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing

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AI-Fueled Mini Housing Bubbles Form as Commercial Delinquencies Rise Sep 03, 2026

Show notes

AI is bringing 6,000 jobs to a small Texan town, and home prices are seeing a sizable jump…but what happens once the job is done? Is this just a mini housing bubble waiting to happen, or is buying near an AI boomtown actually worth the risk? These scenarios may begin popping up more and more—what happens when it’s in your neck of the woods?

We’re back with more headlines on what’s affecting the housing market. AI-induced housing bubbles could be coming in hot as small, overlooked areas of the U.S. turn to boomtowns with more jobs and more housing demand (at least temporarily). If you are going to buy in or around one of these cities, this is what to buy so you don’t get burnt once the construction workers leave.

Fresh distress hits real estate as the “maturity wall” grows even taller. Multifamily delinquencies are up 600% from just a few years ago, and office space is struggling even with so many return-to-office announcements over the past two years. And it’s not just commercial real estate. Flippers are stuck with listings getting stale, with some 2/3 of house flippers seeing longer days on market. How do Henry and James, our house flipping experts, avoid holding a hefty hard money loan while waiting for a property to sell?

In This Episode We Cover

New AI boomtowns forming in small investing markets (and whether you should buy)

Why big properties, even though distressed, may not all fall to foreclosure any time soon

What to buy if you’re investing near a newly approved data center

Why not buying right now could be a huge mistake (even as investors struggle)

The one thing James asks from his lender to save him serious cash when a property won’t sell

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

“The Largest Infrastructure Buildout in Human History” Could Be a Massive Opportunity For Real Estate Investors

Henry's BiggerPockets Profile

Texas Standard: Data center construction spurring a housing crisis in Abilene

CRED IQ: Property Types Feeling the August Heat

HousingWire: Fix-and-flip market shows signs of strain as mortgage rates climb

Grab James’s Book, The House Flipping Framework

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The Bulletproof BRRRR in 2026 (Buying One Tomorrow!) Sep 01, 2026

Show notes

Today’s guest is buying a perfect BRRRR tomorrow. Even with today’s interest rates, even in this housing market, Zach Kepes is still making serious money with the strategy everyone has assumed is dead—the BRRRR method. He’ll walk away with tens of thousands in equity, get a trophy rental property that will bring in rent for decades, and add to his already impressive 300+ single-family home portfolio.

He’s been BRRRRing for over 20 years, and he’s not stopping in 2026, especially when everyone else is. The question is…how is he still doing it?

Zach is one of the only humans on the planet who can match James’s deal-junkie energy. He’s been buying rentals since 2002, using the same strategy, but with different prices, financing, and renovations. Zach says it loud and clear: the BRRRR method still works in 2026, and he’s showing you his exact buy box to find perfect BRRRR properties, how to check comps to confirm they work, and how he pays for them, refinances them, and what new BRRRR investors can do today to start.

If the BRRRR method is so dead, how is Zach still making money with it?

In This Episode We Cover

Zach’s “four pillars” for a profitable BRRRR in 2026 (the rules to follow)

The quick BRRRR renovation Zach does on repeat for his rental properties

How to start BRRRRing today, even if you’re new to a market or investing

An actual BRRRR deal Zach is buying tomorrow (full numbers and projected returns)

The “key” to getting this strategy right (you need this on every deal you do)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets

BiggerPockets Real Estate 1320 - How to Execute the “Slow” BRRRR Strategy in 2026 (Full Walkthrough)