On The Market

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

How Did A $200B+ Bank Collapse In 48 Hours? Is Real Estate Going To Be Impacted?

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-87

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86: Here’s What Will Cause Mortgage Rates to Finally Fall w/Logan Mohtashami Mar 13, 2023

Show notes

The housing market is stuck in a standoff. On one side, you have buyers, repeatedly beaten with high home prices, higher mortgage rates, and almost non-existent affordability. On the other, you have the sellers, who are sitting on low-interest-rate mortgages, unwilling to take a price lower than they want, waiting for rates to come back down, so the bidding wars begin all over again. This standoff has caused the housing market to come to a halt, with inventory at unbelievably low levels and no one willing to buy or sell.

But weren’t we supposed to be past this? When rates dropped earlier this year, the housing market looked like it was on a fast track to a real estate revival. But now, homebuyers, sellers, and investors don’t know where to turn. And that’s precisely why we brought on HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami, the one person who knows the real estate market better than the rest. Last time we had Logan on, he debunked the claim of a 2008-style housing crash repeat, and now, he’s on to forecast when the housing market could finally reach a healthy point again.

Logan knows why homeowners aren’t selling, why buyers aren’t bidding, and when mortgage rates will come back down. With some simple stats and data, Logan lays out almost exactly what would have to happen for us to enter a normal housing market and gives a rough timeline of when we can expect these changes to take place. And if you’re still on the “it’s gonna crash!” bandwagon, we’d suggest sticking around for Logan’s full explanation, as it may completely reverse what you thought was conceivable.

In This Episode We Cover

Mortgage rate forecasts and what has to “break” for rates to come back down

Foreclosures, distressed sellers, and why there isn’t more inventory on the market

Homebuyers vs. sellers and why neither of these two will make moves until the other does

2008 vs. 2023 and why a Great Recession repeat is a lot less likely than you think

What could cause affordability to rise and help homebuyers get into properties

Rent growth declines and why rents are starting to stall even as homebuying becomes challenging

The commercial real estate “crash” and which sector is most primed for price cuts

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's Instagram

On the Market 14 with Logan

Connect with Logan:

Logan Website

Housing Market Tracker

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-86

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85: New Builds, Knowing Your Niche, and the 2023 Housing Boom!? Mar 10, 2023

Show notes

This housing market is a tough nut to crack. One week, rates are coming back down, buyers are gearing up to re-enter the real estate market, and investors are feeling optimistic. Then, the following week, inflation spikes, mortgage rates jump, and affordability plummets back down to a depressing level. Because of this topsy-turvy economy we find ourselves in, we get a slew of questions on almost every episode asking us to predict what will happen next. And today, the entire On the Market panel has flown out to Denver to get this live debate going.

That’s right. Dave Meyer is joined by Henry Washington, James Dainard, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke to pop some bottles, rock some chains (thank you, James), and give you up-to-date info on the housing market. We’ve taken a few of our favorite questions from the comment section and got the panel’s opinions on some of today’s most pressing topics. First, we’ll talk about why new homes are cheaper than existing homes in many markets and whether or not this is a red flag for the housing market.

Then, we enter lender territory and discuss which markets are seeing new down payment requirements and which allow you to still score deals at ten to fifteen percent down. We’ll also revisit the commercial real estate crash and what could happen once these massive balloon payments come due. But don’t worry, there’s still some optimism afoot, as a couple of our expert guests predict a housing market boom could be coming in only a matter of months. So, don’t get caught in the rocky waves of this real estate market; tune in to get the scoop on everything happening on the market.

In This Episode We Cover

The incoming housing market “boom” that could start another buying frenzy

New construction vs. existing homes and which is a safer bet as a new investor

Down payment requirements and why so many lenders are asking for more

The commercial real estate crash and how it could create insane deals for investors with cash on hand

The state of the economy and why there’s so much contradictory data pointing in different directions

Why you should always buy two plane tickets when planning your next trip

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Jamil's BiggerPockets Profile

Jamil's Instagram

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's Instagram

James' BiggerPockets Profile

James' Instagram

Attend a BiggerPockets Meetup

Grab Dave’s “2023 State of Real Estate Investing Report”

On the Market Podcast 65 with Ben Miller (Deleveraging)

On the Market Podcast 71 with Brian Burke (Multifamily BOMB)

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-85

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84: The 2023 Recession Countdown: Is Now the BEST Time to Invest? Mar 06, 2023

Show notes

The 2023 recession is off to a strange start. Homebuyer activity has rallied, consumer spending is up, and unemployment is low. Is a recession really on the way, and if so, has anyone told the Fed what's happening in today’s economy? With a good chunk of economists still betting on a recession in 2023, who’s right and who’s wrong? And if there isn’t a recession incoming, can real estate investors take advantage of this artificial instability to get even better deals done?

We’re back with our panel of experts, Henry Washington, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke, to get their take on whether or not this period of economic uncertainty is over. Back in 2022, with mortgage rates picking up, inflation hitting decade-long highs, and the housing market starting to stutter, most Americans were right to believe that we were on the cusp of a recession. And real estate investors were doing deals left and right, trying to get as many homes under contract for the lowest price.

And only a few months later, things have started to change, but investors are still getting incredible deals done, and if you tune into this episode, you can too! We talk about how this “white-collar recession” is causing more profit than panic for investors and why many Americans don’t “feel” we’re in an economic downturn. Our expert guests even give their best predictions on what could happen this year and into the next. So if you want to take home some SERIOUS profits like our guests did in the last crash, listen up!

In This Episode We Cover

A 2022 economic recap and why Americans didn’t react as they did during the last recession

Testing today’s recession sentiment using the “underwear” theory

Whether or not we’re in a recession and why real estate is always “first in, first out”

The 2023 economy, housing market predictions, and why recession indicators don’t always work

How to invest in 2023 and what our expert guests are doing to build wealth while markets are down

Passive investing and why Dave’s private money lending bet could pay off as mortgage rates rise

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Jamil's BiggerPockets Profile

Jamil's Instagram

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy's Instagram

Attend a BiggerPockets Meetup

Why This Recession is a HUGE Opportunity for Investors

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-84

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83: The “Catalyst” That Could Cause The Economy to Fall w/Ben Miller Mar 03, 2023

Show notes

The 2023 economy doesn’t fit what the forecasters were predicting. Inflation was up, but now it’s coming back down, interest rates keep rising, but homebuyer demand is coming back? As if there wasn’t enough contradictory data, employment is holding steady while we should be in a recession. What’s really happening behind the scenes, and how can you use economic headwinds to build wealth faster while everyone else braces for an impact that may never come?

We’re back with Fundrise CEO Ben Miller to discuss the three economic scenarios EVERY investor should plan for in 2023. Ben has learned something new about the economy (and himself) during every past crash. In the 90s, when real estate took a hit, young Ben was too carefree to be concerned. Then, when 2008 came around, Ben was left with scars from the market crash carnage. Now, after the 2020 flash crash and into a potential 2023 market crash, Ben knows better and is making bets that’ll make him, his company, and his investors very wealthy.

Ben thinks it’s a mistake that most investors simply put one scenario forward when investing. He tells tales of some of the greatest investors using basic scenario planning to make a killing during any economy. In this episode, he’ll run through exactly how you can do this and why thinking in bets may be one of the best moves you can ever make. So, even if a housing market crash does come, you’ll be prepared not just to survive but thrive.

In This Episode We Cover

Why we aren’t in a recession yet and the contradictory crash indicators

Scenario planning 101 and the three types of outcomes EVERY investor should plan for

Thinking in bets and why a “black swan event” is much closer than most people think

What could lead to an economic recession and why it’s getting impossible to predict one

The best asset classes to invest in during 2023 and why institutional investors are taking big bets on debt

Why base hit real estate deals will make you rich, but home run potential should always be taken advantage of

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Attend a BiggerPockets Meetup

On the Market 33 with Ben on Build-to-Rent

On the Market 65 with Ben on Deleveraging

On the Market 76 with NFL Panel

Books Mentioned in the Show

The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel

The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz

Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Nicholas Taleb

Connect with Ben:

Ben’s Twitter

Ben’s LinkedIn

Ben’s Email

Ben’s BiggerPockets Profile

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-83

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82: The Crash That Didn’t Come: Has the Housing Market Already Bottomed? Feb 27, 2023

Show notes

The housing market crash may be over already. With mortgage rates steadily dropping, buyer demand picking up, and competition creeping back in, this housing correction could have been one of the fastest and least severe downturns we’ve ever witnessed. Top forecasters have hinted at the housing market bottoming out, with some claiming that the “thawing” has already begun—but the data may point to something different. While there are signs of improvement compared to where we stood just a few months ago, some glaringly obvious data points could make this a much closer call than mainstream forecasters think.

Dave Meyer, your sandwich-eating, data-delving host, wanted to know precisely what would cause the housing market to hit its floor. He looks at both the demand and supply side of the housing market, touching on the variables that genuinely make a difference. We’re talking about mortgage rates, housing affordability, loan applications, housing supply, active listings, and more. But you don’t need a degree in Data Science to understand what’s happening behind the scenes.

Dave will explain exactly what is (and isn’t) impacting the housing market, what changes led to the state we’re in, and four scenarios that could play out in 2023 that might put a nail in this theory’s coffin. Betting on the housing market bottoming out? We’d suggest hearing the full story before you make your next investment.

In This Episode We Cover

Why top housing market forecasters believe that the housing market has found its bottom

Mortgage rate updates and why interest rates are falling while the Fed introduces more rate hikes

Housing affordability and why we may be moving away from the record-breaking unaffordability of late 2022

Mortgage applications and why homebuyers have decided to come back in 2023

Housing inventory and why more listings and longer days on market could suggest we aren’t through a correction just yet

The four scenarios that could play out in 2023 (and which is the MOST likely)

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Mortgage Bankers Association

Altos Research

Goldman Sachs

WSJ

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-82

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81: America is Screaming for Affordable Housing, But No One Wants to Build w/Lu Chen and Thomas LaSalvia Feb 24, 2023

Show notes

The housing market has entered into a new era never measured before. As of a recent update from Moody’s Analytics, the rent-to-income ratio across the US has reached an average of 30%. And while this may not seem like a big deal to casual investors, it has wide-reaching implications that could cause the housing market to move in different directions. This is the first time a rent-to-income ratio has hit this high percentage point, which could spell bad news for landlords.

Lu Chen and Thomas LaSalvia from Moody’s Commercial Real Estate division are joining us to explain the entire story behind the data. They have been closely monitoring the steadily rising rent prices for decades. With pandemic-fueled migration, Lu and Thomas both believe that we’re living in one of the most troubling times for renters. But how did this come to be? With massive housing development across the nation, what’s causing rents to remain so high? The answer isn’t what you might expect.

Lu and Thomas have seen developers shift focus to certain housing types, leaving much of the middle class in a rent squeeze. This “missing middle” could explain why so many families are paying a solid portion of their income to rent every month. But with reasonably priced rentals becoming a hot commodity, what can landlords do to ease the burden and open up more housing for those who need it most? And where will rent head next after it’s broken through this previously unshatterable ceiling? Tune in and find out!

In This Episode We Cover

Housing affordability and why America just crossed into “rent-burdened” territory

The “ecosystem effect” and how pricier developments hurt the middle class

Housing demand and why work-from-home hotspots put strain on the system

Housing markets where rent is declining and the rent-to-income ratio is weakening

Where Americans are moving to and why some millennials are staying away from the suburbs

Real estate development and which housing types are getting built

Comparing today’s rent crisis to 2008 and why a housing correction doesn’t always equal a rent crash

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Key Takeaways from 4th Quarter

Moody's CRE Website

Connect with Lu and Thomas:

Lu's Email

Thomas' Email

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-81

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80: How to Make More Cash Flow Charging Cheaper Rent with Coliving w/Jay Chang Feb 20, 2023

Show notes

Coliving has often been thought of as solely student housing. When you mention this strategy to investors, they think of house parties, dirty dishes, constant complaints, and a whole lot of maintenance. But ask Jay Chang from Tripalink, and he’s got a different story to tell. Jay works to develop the best coliving communities in the United States, securing a lower-rent option for his tenants and a high cash flow investment for his investors. He’s seen how coliving projects are built, managed, and maintained, and he may completely change your mind on this concept.

For expensive areas like Los Angeles, New York, and Seattle, finding an affordable place to live as a student or entry-level worker is near impossible. Your options? Spend the majority of your salary on a studio apartment, live with your friends who haven’t vacuumed in three years, or move into a coliving apartment. The latter offers upscale amenities, daily or weekly cleaning, private rooms, and a high cash flow solution for landlords in pricey markets.

Still have your doubts? Jay touches on the untrue myths associated with coliving, why vacancy is near-zero, property management and maintenance, and why this investing niche could be close to exploding as the economy takes a tumble. This strategy could take your real estate portfolio to the next level if you’re in an expensive market, college town, or densely-populated area.

In This Episode We Cover

A quick housing market update and why buyers are jumping back in

Coliving explained and why young professionals and students need a new option for housing

The stigmas associated with coliving and why almost all of them are untrue

The luxury amenities that coliving offers and how it keeps vacancy at rock-bottom rates

Property management when coliving and how to deal with tenant issues

Converting your single-family home into coliving and the cost you can expect

House hacking and how to start coliving on a smaller scale

Where to invest in coliving and how to get in before this industry takes off

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Co-Living Could Become The Future Of Real Estate

Double Your Rental Income with Co-Living Cash Flow

Build a Six-Figure Student Housing Portfolio in Just Eight Steps

Read Jay’s Articles on BiggerPockets

Connect with Jay:

Jay's BiggerPockets Profile

Jay's LinkedIn

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-80

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79: The Hidden Housing Costs Almost Every New Investor Overlooks Feb 17, 2023

Show notes

Your real estate investment’s returns could be ruined by a few hidden costs that you don’t know about. For the rookie real estate investor, it seems like every investment has the same type of expenses; mortgage, taxes, insurance, repairs, and property management. And while these surface-level expenses are almost always present in a real estate deal, NUMEROUS extra expenses could sink your ship if you don’t include them in your deal analysis. So, stick around, or you might get burnt on your next real estate deal!

To walk us through the different types of deals and the expenses that come with them, we’ve got Henry Washington, James Dainard, and Kathy Fettke on the show. Henry, a buy and hold investor, knows that the “cash flow” new investors are calculating is far from reality. He highlights the exact expenses it takes to run a rental property portfolio and why those counting on self-management could be making a MASSIVE mistake. Next, James talks about the often over-glamorized world of flipping houses and the massive haircut investors take when they don’t account for closing, construction, and tricky lending fees.

Finally, for our passive investor, Kathy goes into the world of real estate syndications, defining the numerous fees many “mailbox money” investors overlook. In fact, investors in these passive deals often don’t know when (or how) they’re getting paid. You DO NOT want to make this mistake! Stick around to hear it all, so you don’t make these beginner blunders next time you get a deal done!

In This Episode We Cover

The “hidden” fix and flip, buy and hold, and real estate syndication costs

Lending fees, penalties, and the BIG cost of borrowing money

Seller concessions and what to expect in a buyer's market like 2023

Raising rent and why not doing so could be a huge mistake when building a portfolio

Self-management vs. third-party property management and why you ALWAYS need to factor in a fee

Real estate syndication payments explained and why so many investors get it wrong

The “4-4-4” housing market prediction and whether it could really come true

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

James's BiggerPockets Profile

James' Instagram

Kathy's BiggerPockets Profle

Kathy's Insatgram

Books Mentioned in the Show

The Book on Estimating Rehab Costs by J Scott

The Book on Managing Rental Properties by Brandon and Heather Turner

The Hands-Off Investor by Brian Burke

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-79

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78: 3 Ways to Buy in 2023 and Making the Most of a Multifamily Crash Feb 13, 2023

Show notes

The multifamily crash is well underway! But is now the time to buy? If only you could see where top investors are parking their cash during this wild house market. Well, today, you can! We’re back with another Deal Breakdown, where Henry Washington, James Dainard, and Kathy Fettke break down the deals they’re doing in February of 2023. And while the news may be highlighting a “doom and gloom” type of real estate market, we know from first-hand experience that there is still money to be made in today’s housing market!

Kathy is back in her love-hate relationship with new builds as she makes a SERIOUS investment in the beautiful ski town of Park City, Utah. The view alone at this property was enough to sell her on the high price. Next, Henry shares his “base hit” off-market real estate deal with a slew of exit strategies that’ll make him money, no matter what. Lastly, James is going hard on the multifamily housing crash, tackling a multi-million dollar deal that could have an eight-figure sales price once he’s done with it! Want to hear how these top investors are finding, funding, and profiting from their real estate deals in 2023? Stick around!

And, if you haven’t been to the grocery store, gas pump, or lumber yard in a while, we play a post-inflation pricing game to see how high-priced everyday commodities have gotten. We won’t give away the answers, but we can definitely say that omitting omelets from your diet could save you some serious cash!

In This Episode We Cover

Inflation’s effect on everyday commodities and how high prices have gotten

Investing in new construction and the massive financial upside to buying the right property

Why you should search for “base hit” deals that give you MULTIPLE options to exit profitably

Wholetailing vs. wholesaling and when to use each of these off-market strategies

Price over profit and why buying a great deal should be your top concern when investing

Capitalizing on the multifamily crash and how cap rates are helping buyers scoop up apartments at a steep discount

And So Much More!

Links from the Show