Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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'You get these ferocious rallies, and then they're just gone' May 04, 2022

Show notes

Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says that he is seeing signs of a bear market -- which he believes we are in -- in the form of heightened volatility where rallies are in full force one minute and wiped out the next. McMillan says that while the market is showing signs of being oversold, it's not time to act on that yet because only one of the eight primary indicators he tracks is bullish right now, "and it will take a while for them to come around." Also on the show, Bob Powell, the editor of Retirement Daily, talks about how poorly prepared many retirement savers are for dealing with long-term heightened inflation, noting that 'You won't be able to invest your way out of this,' Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com survey on how people are altering summer travel plans based on the economy, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks about growth investing in the Market Call.

AAII's Rotblut: Bearish investors usually get it wrong May 03, 2022

Show notes

Charles Rotblut, editor of the AAII Journal -- Money Life's all-time leader in guest appearances, but also the person responsible for maintaining the American Association of Individual Investors' sentiment survey -- says that investor optimism over the last three weeks has reached some of the lowest levels seen since the group started its survey in 1987. Rotblut says that when optimism is unusually low, "you tend to see outperformance in the Standard & Poor's 500 over the following six months and 12 months. ... When people are too negative, it's usually a good time to get greedy." But in the Market Call, Stephen McKee of the No-Load Mutual Fund Selection & Timing newsletter says that he still sees too much bullish sentiment and that he doesn't think the market will turn around until investors get negative; until that happens -- and for many months now -- McKee and his newsletter have been bearish. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for BankRate.com discusses the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate hike and how higher interest rates and rising inflation will affect savers and borrowers in the years ahead.

Loomis Sayles' Fuss: Higher inflation will be with us for the next decade May 02, 2022

Show notes

On the 10th anniversary show for Money Life, legendary bond fund manager Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co., says that the Federal Reserve is "trapped," and will not be able to fully control inflation and that investors will be living with higher inflation and interest rates "for likely the next 10 years." Fuss compares today's bond market conditions to the Korean War era, and says investors need to adjust their expectations and get used to living with it. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits some of the most successful Danger Zone selections that -- despite being hammered since they were labeled as dangerous -- remain poised for more damage, and money manager Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn, who appeared in the first-ever Money Life Market Call -- is back talking stocks in that segment again today.

Piper Sandler's Johnson: Market could end this year with a big rally Apr 29, 2022

Show notes

Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, says that the market's current washout is setting up "a very healthy rally into year-end" that could see the Standard & Poor's 500 finish the year above 4,700, a particularly healthy move because the current pain and decline has longer to go before the turnaround begins. Johnson is currently overweight in energy, basic materials and large-cap technology stocks, and underweight in health care, communications/media stocks and consumer cyclicals. That interview contrasts with Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, who suggested that investors hold tight to fundamentals and the teachings of Warren Buffett, understanding that while there may be a rally in the market, there is a recession on the horizon, likely arriving after the next year. Also on the show, Nathan Shetty, head of multi-asset for Nuveen, discusses diversifying to generate consistent gains and safety in a low-return environment, and author Scott Nations discusses his new book, "The Anxious Investor; Mastering the Mental Game of Investing"

U.S. Global's Holmes: 'The stars are aligned for a recession and a bear market' Apr 28, 2022

Show notes

Frank Holmes, chief executive/chief investment officer for U.S. Global Investors, says current economic and socio-political conditions have the market in the middle of a downturn that could grow into a full-blown recession accompanied by a bear market, but he expects central bankers and politicians to print as much money as is necessary to keep economic engines running and to minimize the setbacks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes the Invesco Water Resources fund -- a long-running fund that is a different kind of play on the natural resources space -- his ETF of the Week and Craig Hodges, chief investment officer for the Hodges Funds, talks bottoms-up investing in stocks in the Market Call.

Midas' Winmill: It's 'the middle innings before we see gold really take off' Apr 27, 2022

Show notes

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that while gold has not done well in its traditional role as an inflation hedge over the last year as higher prices have gripped the country, it would be too early to give up on precious metals filling that role, especially as inflation stays in place for longer than was initially expected. Winmill also notes that if the economy heads into a recession, the permanence of gold will elevate it over cryptocurrencies and other hot assets that have been proposed as alternatives to precious metals in troubled times. Also on the show, Rob Williams of the Schwab Center for Financial Research, discusses a recent survey showing how younger generations are re-imagining retirement, resulting in better preparedness for their golden years, even as those times will look different than the standard retirements of the past. In the Market Call, Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management talks about crunching the numbers on stocks, especially during volatile times like what investors are facing now.

Wells Fargo's Samana: The market keeps 'losing engines' Apr 26, 2022

Show notes

Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the stock market has been seeing its various drivers falter since last year, starting with uptrends turning to downtrends in developed markets like Europe, then in emerging markets, then small- and mid-cap stocks, and now domestic large-cap stocks. With less than half of the market sectors showing positive trends now, Samana says "This is not a time to be playing offense, this is a much better time to be playing defense." In The Big Interview, Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, talks about inflation and how he believes the drivers for it have peaked, which should mean it begins easing significantly, even if that doesn't show up in the measures for a while. And in the Market Call, George Young of the Villere Funds talks about long-term investment strategies with small-company stocks.

Economists see continued pricing pressure, but no looming recession Apr 25, 2022

Show notes

Economists -- as judged by the latest Business Conditions Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics -- do not see inflationary pressures subsiding immediately but they believe the damaging impact to the market of high inflation, rising interest rates and global supply-chain issues will stop short of creating a recession in the United States. Economist Lester Jones discusses the survey results, and the prospects for the domestic economy while inflation and war persist. Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that the China market is tenuous right now -- with the country dealing with a continuing Covid crisis and also trying to be neutral in the Ukraine War -- but also poised to be a good opportunity for active investors now. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs gives us new reasons to dislike Gamestop and Carvana, as he puts them back into the Danger Zone, and Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks in the Market Call.

Stack Financial's Johnson: 'This is your grandfather's stock market' Apr 22, 2022

Show notes

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager for Stack Financial Management, says that inflationary pressures that haven't been seen in over 40 years and the tightest labor market in history mean that what has worked in recent years will not be panning out so well going forward. That means "This is not your father's market," Jonson says, and investors need to go old school and get more defensive, expecting to see some pain before they the market gets positioned for a long-term recovery. Jonson also notes that the average constituent of the NASDAQ Composite Index is down 42 percent from 52-week highs, so while index returns have yet to show substantial drawdowns, a lot of investors have already suffered serious pain, which is likely to get worse from here unless they make defensive moves. Also on the show, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence and the Active Investment Company Alliance, talks about how closed-end funds fared during the rugged first quarter of the year, Derek Izuel of Shelton Capital Management covers international markets and how current events will have long-term impacts over how foreign investments are used and perceived, and Medicare expert Diane Omdahl of Sixty-Five Inc. discusses the importance of shopping around and knowing the rules before buying Medicare supplement insurance coverage.

After Netflix meltdown, fund investors have a task to complete Apr 21, 2022

Show notes

Before even getting to today's interviews, Chuck discusses the fallout from Netflix losing one-third of its value on Wednesday, and how a big popular security being challenged this way becomes the perfect opportunity for individuals to see if their portfolio has passed a key stress test. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks a new fund highlighting the consumer market in India as his ETF of the Week, David Rainey of the Hennessy Focus Fund discusses the market and the challenges of concentrating a portfolio during times with high inflation and rising interest rates, and Patrick Healey, president of Caliber Financial Partners, talks stocks in the Market Call.

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