Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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Tech Trader's Vermeulen: We are nearing 'peak, maximum financial risk' Apr 05, 2022

Show notes

Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, says that 'the red flags are in the air that the market is ready to roll over,' and while he sees the current rally continuing for another month or two, any upward moves right now are setting up for a bear market, a downward move of more than 25 percent. "Somebody putting money into almost anything right now is carrying a ton of risk," Vermeulen says. "Everything is very overpriced." Also on the show, Chuck looks back at the completion of the NCAA men's basketball tournament on Monday and uses it as a metaphor for building a portfolio, and we revisit a recent discussion with Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research.

Companies that 'overstate earnings' are headed for a fall Apr 04, 2022

Show notes

David Trainer, president at investment-research firm New Constructs, says that 80 percent of the Standard & Poor's 500 companies are overstating earnings, and he highlighted Illumina as topping the list, saying the company is overvalued as a result. The company is currently trading for about $350, but Trainer put it in "The Danger Zone" because it has an economic book value of "negative two dollars." Also on the show, Ron Ruffinott of Toluna discusses their recent survey showing that one-third of Americans feel markedly worse off financially now compared to a year ago, economist/author Jonathan Haskel discusses his new book -- "Restarting the Future: How to Fix the Intangible Economy," and Brad Lamensdorf of Active Alts and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF returns to talk stocks in the Market Call.

Active Alts' Lamensdorf: Volatile market is wringing out its past excesses Apr 01, 2022

Show notes

Brad Lamensdorf, editor of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and chief executive officer of Active Alts, says that investors can expect a lot of 'sub-surface volatility throughout the entire year," but all of that chop amounts to the market getting past the bigger-than-expected gains of 2020 and 2021. Lamensdorf says that most market sentiment gauges and indicators are negative but that is creating some pockets of opportunity, though they are hard to spot amid bear-market bounces. Also on the show, Edward Yardeni of Yardeni Research returns for a second day, this time to talk about his latest book, "In Praise of Profits," Michael Bell of Primark Capital discusses how private-equity investments can bring something to a portfolio that most investors are missing, and Simon Lack of SL Advisors -- the firm behind the American Energy Independence Index -- returns to talk about energy stocks in the Market Call.

Edward Yardeni: A productivity boom could spur the 'Roaring 2020s' Mar 31, 2022

Show notes

Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says that the current wage-price-rent spiral is likely to spur businesses to spend money to increase the productivity of workers. If that innovation and change occurs -- and Yardeni believes there will be a 'productivity boom' -- a decade that started out pretty badly could instead turn into the Roaring 2020s. Yardeni says that solid economic underpinning will make it that inflation and interest rate hikes will not turn into a repeat of the 1970s, avoiding deep, long recessions or worse even while conditions feel bad. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com looks to emerging markets and internet/e-commerce for his ETF of the Week, and Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds, talks technology stocks in the Market Call.

Higher inflation hurts, but it will not break you Mar 30, 2022

Show notes

There is nothing about inflation hitting its highest levels in 40 years that makes anyone feel good, but Chuck looks beyond the big number to talk about the actual impact that higher prices are having on people, and concludes by noting that the costs and the choices inflation is creating are uncomfortable but manageable. As a result, while he understands the grumbles -- saying he complains himself every time he fills up his gas tank -- his bigger message remains that 'Higher inflation is not going to break you.' Also on the show, Marketwatch columnist Brett Arends discusses the fallout from Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy calling Warren Buffett 'washed up,' a call that looks particularly foolish given the time since when Warren Buffett's personal fortune roughly doubled to over $100 billion in short order. Mark Hamirck of Bankrate.com discusses his site's latest survey of workers and their outlook on jobs and working conditions, and Jillian DelSignore of FLX Networks discusses the evolution of the ETF business and the trend of traditional mutual funds converting to the exchange-traded fund structure.

Bitwise's Hougan: Regulatory efforts will unlock the next crypto bull market Mar 29, 2022

Show notes

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, says that the cryptocurrency market's fear over regulation is misplaced, and while threats of regulation send the market into a tizzy, he thinks that worry is misplaced and directed toward heavy-handed regulatory efforts. He thinks the potential for regulation will turn from a headwind to a tailwind, because decentralized finance goes mainstream through regulatory guidance that makes consumers more comfortable with digital assets. In a wide-ranging interview, Hougan also talks about how cryptocurrencies have performed against inflation, in the war in Ukraine and more, and discusses how non-fungible tokens are the latest verse in an age-old song of how societies develop arts and cultures during times of financial success. Also on the show, Shelly-Ann Eweka, senior director for advice strategy for TIAA, talks about how gig workers and others with non-traditional jobs can still participate in traditional retirement-savings programs, and David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds discusses investing with an eye on climate change in the Market Call.

New Constructs' Trainer: Hubspot would fall 85 percent just to reach fair value Mar 28, 2022

Show notes

David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, says that HubSpot is worth only about 15 percent of what its stock currently is trading for, and he's putting it in 'The Danger Zone' because it faces stiff competition in an industry that is being commoditized, leaving it littel room to grow profitably, let alone at the incredibly high valuation the market has given the stock for now. We've also got Mike Bailey of FBB Capital partners, back to discuss his new book 'Stop. Think. Invest: A Behavioral Finance Framework for Optimizing Investment Portfolios, plus Ken Mahonet of Mahoney Asset Management talks stocks and ETFs in the Market Call, and Chuck shares his thoughts and appreciation for Ned Johnson, the man who built Fidelity Investments from a family business to the world's largest and most influential financial-services firms.

NDR's Kalish: Expect rate hikes until the Fed hits its inflation target Mar 25, 2022

Show notes

Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that longer-term inflation will be what determines whether the economy can continue to avoid a recession and the market can sidestep a protracted downturn. With that in mind, Kalish expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates repeatedly until it can be confident that inflation has peaked, is passing through temporary troubles and gets to long-term target levels at 2.1 percent. Kalish, says, though, that he believes that goal will take longer than the Fed expects to be accomplished, meaning that economic doldrums will also go on for longer than forecast. In The NAVigator segment, Mitchel Penn of Oppenheimer and Co., talks about the challenges of analyzing and evaluating business-development companies, highlighting why one particular BDC -- Runway Growth Finance Corp. -- appears ready to outperform the market and the competition. And in the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research for FBB Capital Partners, talks about taking a "beat and raise" approach to managing a portfolio of stocks during trying market conditions.

Haverford's Smith: Ignore forecasts and uncertainty, stay fully invested Mar 24, 2022

Show notes

Hank Smith, head of investment strategy for The Haverford Trust Co., says that rising volatility and heightened uncertainty shouldn't push investors out of the market, because times like these prove the value of being fully invested in all conditions, and having money in the market whenever a bottom is reached. In the Market Call, Smith talks about how owning great companies with long histories of dividend payments creates the confidence to ride out tough times en route to long-term success. In the 'ETF of the Week' segment, Tom Lydon, chief executive at ETFTrends.com, discusses one of the biggest, most-popular ETFs -- a Standard and Poor's 500 Index fund from Vanguard -- noting that the pick isn't just trending but it's an appropriate allocation for investors with too much cash on the sidelines. Also on the show, Kirsten Grind, co-author of 'Happy At Any Cost: The Revolutionary Vision and Fatal Quest of Zappos CEO Tony Hsieh,' and Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com discussing the site's 2022 Gas Cards Survey and whether using a branded card can really help you out at the pump.

Payden's Cleveland: 'The labor market is VERY strong and inflation is FAR too high' Mar 23, 2022

Show notes

Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden and Rygel, says that he expects inflation to settle down and for the economy to reach full-employment levels by the end of the year, creating earnings and economic growth that sidesteps any potential recession. Cleveland expects the market to recover its early-year losses and show modest profits by the end of the year. Also on the show, Shelly-Ann Eweka of TIAA discusses survey results showing that women's finances in retirement make them much more financially vulnerable than men are, and Samuel Adams, chief executive officer of Vert Asset Management -- which runs the Vert Global Sustainable Real Estate Fund -- talks environmental, social and governance (ESG) in the Market Call.

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